Saturday's Best Bet: Going with Hofburg in Keeneland's Fayette Stakes

October 27, 2018 04:33pm
Saturday's ninth race from Keeneland is the Grade 2, $200,000 Fayette Stakes for 3-year-olds and up traveling a mile and an eighth on the main track. 


#6 HOFBURG (5-2) should move forward and beat this less than stellar older cast. The late runner looked great romping from off the pace on a speed favoring wet track in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga July 27. That race was supposed to be a springboard to the Travers, but he got sick and missed that event. He was rerouted to the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), and he added blinkers, raced very wide in the stretch, and missed the show by a length while spinning his wheels at Parx. The Florida Derby (G1) runner-up and Belmont Stakes show finisher drilled a Saratoga training track bullet for this Oct. 13. He reconnects with his winning maiden pilot Jose Ortiz, and he figures to move forward and run his best race in this spot.

#5 Leofric (5-2) did all of the pace dirty work and finished third in the Woodward (G1) on Sept. 1, and three runners from that heat were next out winners. He is sharp, fresh, versatile, and consistent, but nine furlongs is outside his best distance and Hofburg has more upside.

#2 Nice Not Nice (10-1) can spice up the exotics, and the main question is not class, but distance. He exits a game second in the Ack Ack (G3) in a one turn mile at Churchill Downs. The improving 4-year-old gelding has fired exacta shots in 8 of 12 dirt starts.

#1 Prime Attraction (2-1) is capable of big efforts or clunkers, and he has faced Accelerate in his last five dirt tries. He was up on the pace in a sharp nine furlong victory in the Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar last fall, and his best shot is to go for the lead from the inside post under Kent Desormeaux.

#3 Hence (10-1) is tough in stakes races at lesser tracks, but the closer typically struggles at bigger tracks against graded foes. A minor award is his limit. 

#7 Rated R Superstar (10-1) ran his best race this year at this course/distance in the Ben Ali (G3) in the spring. He has not done much since and has no speed.

#4 Scuba (15-1) used to be good enough to threaten in a race like this, but the 7-year-old gelding is 0-for-5 this year, and his last two efforts were not pretty.

The Plays:

#6 to win

Exacta 6/1-2-5

Exacta 1-2-5/6

Trifecta Key 6/2-5

Trifecta 6/2-5/ALL

Trifecta 6/ALL/2-5

Recent Best Bet Winners:

OCT 20 - BONITA BIANCA ($7.50)

OCT 21 - Rymska/New Money Honey/Indian Blessing Trifecta ($48.50)

Check out my daily full cards from Santa Anita Park at Winning Horse Picks! 



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