Saturday's Best Bet: Monomoy Girl a strong pace player in BC Distaff

November 03, 2018 12:34am

Saturday’s ninth race from Churchill Downs is the Breeders' Cup Distaff for fillies and mares traveling a mile and an eighth on the main track. 

Top 4 Selections: #11 MONOMOY GIRL, #7 Midnight Bisou, #2 Abel Tasman, #10 Blue Prize


#1 Champagne Problems (12-1) - Blue Prize beat her in her last pair, but she ran well both times. She is good enough to hit the board if everything falls into place, but this is not her best distance. She frequently fires trifecta shots at CD. 

#2 Abel Tasman (7-2) - She was a gem of consistency in 2017 with three wins and four 2nds in seven starts, including a runner-up in this race. Her first race this year was a dud at CD in the G1 La Troienne. She bounced back with grade one wins in the Ogden Phipps and Personal Ensign in NY. In her final BC prep, she threw in a clunker as the overwhelming favorite in the G1 Zenyatta at SA. She was reportedly sick last time, and she is more than capable of winning a race like this. She did win the G1 Ky Oaks at CD in 2017 (sloppy track).  

#3 La Force (20-1) - Interesting exotics contender. Was second best in her last three graded routes in SoCal, and gave recently retired Unique Bella a scare in the G1 Hirsch at DMR. She is fast and talented enough to rally for a share. 

#4 Mopotism (30-1) - Cut or two below the best. The G2 La Canada winner frequently tries hard but has never beaten a field like this.  

#5 Wonder Gadot (15-1) - On her best day, I know that she can take down a prize like this, or at least hit the board. She handles this distance and gave Monomoy Girl a real test in the Ky Oaks. My main problem with her is the very long 2018 campaign. She raced four times prior to the Ky Oaks, and after that, she just missed in the Woodbine Oaks, and added blinkers and won the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown. She ended up last in the Travers, and was a distant 3rd in the Cotillion last time. She has been in steady training all year, and this will be her 11th start of 2018. Actually, she began her career in August 2017, and she has run every month since without missing a beat. Her recent numbers have dipped, and she finally appears to be over the top. 

#6 Verve’s Tale (30-1) - Likes this 9f distance and frequently nibbles for minor awards in the graded ranks. She landed the show in 4 of 5 stakes start this year, and she can be used underneath. 

#7 Midnight Bisou (6-1) - I have been a fan all year, but it is obvious at this point that she prefers 8.5f or shorter. On the plus side, she is sharp, and her morning activity for this has been excellent.  

#8 Vale Dori (12-1) - Improbably got back on the beam (blinkers on) in the same race her stablemate Abel Tasman threw in a clunker Sept 30. In 2017, I would have said that she could win a race like this, but even with the win last time, I still have my doubts. She should attend the pace, but I cannot see her putting away Monomoy Girl and holding off a healthy Abel Tasman. 

#9 Wow Cat (8-1) - The most interesting runner in this field. She went 8-for-8 in Chile last year, and has started three times in the US for Chad Brown, all at this distance. She just missed in her US bow in the G3 Shuvee, and was spanked by Abel Tasman in the Personal Ensign. Her last start was her best yet in this country. She stalked the pace and pulled clear to an easy win in the G1 Beldame. Her numbers are on the rise, and I would not be surprised if she ran to a new top. If she does, she can compete for the win. 

#10 Blue Prize (6-1) - Fired exacta shots in all five local outings (3 graded stakes wins). She won her last three starts, and won ugly in the G1 Spinster last time. She must be considered a big threat at her favorite venue. 

#11 Monomoy Girl (2-1) - Clearly the best 3-year-old filly in the land. She crossed the line first in all six graded dirt routes this year (DQ’d in Cotillion last time), including the G1 Kentucky Oaks at CD. She also romped in the Rags to Riches at CD as a juvenile. She owns early-pressing versatility and is 2-for-2 at 9f. This should be her best price since the aforementioned Ky Oaks. No real knocks, except for price.   

BC Distaff Wagers:

#11 to win

Trifecta Key 11/2-7-9-10

Trifecta 2-7-9-10/11/2-7-9-10

Trifecta 2-7-9-10/2-7-9-10/11

Recent Best Bet Winners:

OCT 30 - SHRED THE RULES ($15.00), Exacta ($16.00)
NOV 2 - No Dozing/True Timber Exacta ($13.50)


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