Saturday's 8th race from Churchill Downs is the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile for three-year-olds traveling one mile on the main track (Post Time 2:48 p.m. ET).
#8 DREAM SHAKE (7-2) figures to love this one-turn mile. He rolled to a strong debut win from off the pace at six and one-half furlongs on Feb. 7. He hooked Life Is Good in the San Felipe (G2) second time out, and he was a clear, distant 3rd after stalking the pace. He saved ground stalking the pace as my value top choice in the SA Derby (G1) April 3, and he was best of the rest in 3rd behind Kentucky Derby entrants Rock Your World and Medina Spirit. He had the points to run in the Derby but his connections wisely chose this spot. Flavien Prat rides back and he is a solid win contender.
#6 Starrininmydreams (5-1) ran well in the Lexington (G3). The pace was electric and he was the only forwardly placed runner around at the finish. He is two-for-two at Churchill and he cuts back and should get pace to chase.
#4 Defunded (6-1) returned as a gelding and won as my top choice in his 6f maiden breaker at Santa Anita March 6. He was a wide, well-beaten 4th from the outside post in the SA Derby (G1) last time, and the distance of this race seems just about right. Bob Baffert excels with the blinkers off move and Irad Ortiz Jr. rides.
#3 Jackie’s Warrior (3-1) needs to go out there and prove that he is more than an early developing juvenile. He was outstanding in one-turn races last summer/fall. He failed to stay two turns in the BC Juvenile (G1) and some thought the fast pace was to blame. He was the controlling speed in his Southwest (G3) return on a wet track at one mile, and offered no resistance when Essential Quality came to him. Spielberg also rolled pace him and he was more than eight lengths back in 3rd. He won his debut at Churchill Downs and is probably the target under his regular pilot Joel Rosario.
#5 Prevalence (6-1) was excellent in his first two starts around one turn at Gulfstream Park. He tried to stretch out and qualify for the Derby in the Wood Memorial (G2), and he stalked and slowly weakened in that event. The forwardly placed runners fell apart in that race and it is not like he faded to last. He has some ability but I am just not sure how good he is at this stage. I guess we will find out today.
#7 Whiskey Double (12-1) can stalk or close and he won his debut under the Twin Spires. Both wins were at six furlongs but his speed ratings advanced in his last pair and he was clearly second best at seven panels in the Bay Shore (G3) April 3. He can grab a piece of this.
#8 to win
Recent Best Bet Winners
April 6 - IRISH CORK ($3.40), Exacta ($36.00)
April 10 - JULIET FOXTROT ($5.40), Exacta ($20.60)
April 16 - Bonny South/Royal Flag Exacta ($26.60)
April 17 - SAY THE WORD ($7.20)
April 22 - Daddy Is a Legend/Winter Sunset/Temple City Terror Trifecta ($298.80)
April 24 - Whisper Not/Keeper Ofthe Stars/Restrainedvengence Trifecta ($113.40)
April 25 - NONE ABOVE THE LAW ($8.40)
April 26 - Sheer Flattery/Midnight Act Exacta ($25.00)
Aprill 28 - Averly Jane/Vodka N Water Exacta ($12.60)