Monday’s 5th race from Presque Isle Downs is the $75,000 H.B.P.A. Stakes for fillies and mares traveling a mile and seventy yards on the all-weather surface (Post Time 6:25 p.m. ET).
#11 IRONY OF REALITY (10-1) rallied for the place in this event at 20-1 odds last year. She looked good winning a local optional claiming route as the strong favorite Aug. 19, and did not seem to care for wet dirt in a last place finish in an off the turf route at Pimlico Oct. 2. She loves this all-weather surface and can bounce back at square odds, and she usually runs a quality race from off the pace with Huber Villa-Gomez in the saddle.
#2 Madita (3-1) fired trifecta shots in six of her last eight starts and exits a good runner-up finish in the restricted One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs. She can stalk or close and Arnaud Delacour excels with turf to all-weather runners.
#5 Tightly Twisted (8-1) brings a six-race trifecta streak to the table, and I like her early-pressing versatility. She is a top three threat if she handles all-weather footing.
#10 Ionic (8-1) won a minor turf stakes event at Gulfstream Park last fall, and was forwardly placed before fading in both disappointing turf routes this year. She figures to chase the pace and might be fitter in her third start of the year for Arnaud Delacour.
#11 to win
Exacta Box 2-11
Recent Best Bet Winners
Oct. 4 - MUTASAABEQ ($6.00), Exacta ($93.60), Trifecta ($317.65)
Oct. 5 - SWEET SOUPER SWEET ($5.00), Trifecta ($98.95)
Oct. 6 - PORTAL CREEK ($4.00), Exacta ($12.60)
Oct. 9 - NORTH COUNTY GUY ($7.80)
Oct. 10 - HARVEY'S LIL GOIL ($9.20)
Oct. 16 - STUNNING SKY ($13.80), Trifecta ($462.80)