I do not recall the wheels coming off a bandwagon
so fast than after Orb's 4th place Preakness Stakes finish, beaten a sound 9
lengths. Previously, the Triple Crown talk had started even before jockey Joel
Rosario had a chance to wipe the Louisville mud from his face after he guided
the Kentucky Derby 5-1 favorite to the wire first. The fact he was pounded down to 3-5 odds at Pimlico
(lowest in the last dozen years except for Big Brown at 1-5) and chased several
top finishers from the Derby away from Baltimore reinforced that his five-race
win streak was assuredly going to six. So was his effort last out really that
bad or was he a victim of bad racing luck and a pace scenario that turned very
much against him? As much as the speedy, sealed Churchill Downs oval aided his
swoosh move on the turn to easily claim the roses, the leisurely pace as Oxbow
was left alone on the front-end really took away his closing kick. The six
furlong split time of 1:13 1/5 was more than three full seconds slower in the
Preakness, even though the distance was a tad shorter… game over.
Now clearly Orb was not at his best in the
Preakness Stakes, since Mylute and Itsmyluckyday were able to close much better
after being more than five lengths back at the half-mile mark. Listening to the
comments of both Rosario and a dejected trainer, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, they
felt the kickback was the major culprit of Orb’s poor performance. Probably being bottled up on the inside after
breaking from post #1 didn’t help much either, as many young horses are easily detracted
on the inside with so much going on around them.
Yes, that humbling fourth place finish was
miles away from the accolades leading into the second jewel of the famed Triple
Crown (with respect to Miguel Cabrera). Somehow it became obvious just seconds
after the Derby that Orb was not only the best of his class, but with his blue
blood owners and breeding lines he would be a worthy champion and top sire,
perhaps rivaling the recently retired European great, Frankel. But that is why
we put them in the gates and race them, folks. Orb now has to go back to his
familiar Belmont track and remind us all why we circled this Saturday in
Elmont, New York on our calendars about five weeks ago with fervor!
Make no mistake, a victory Saturday would
resurrect plenty of chatter about Orb being a special horse and certainly
clinch the 3YO male division if the trend of recent years Eclipse Award voting
continues. Since 1970, only four horses
have completed the Derby - Belmont double making it rare air indeed. Riva Ridge
accomplished the feat in 1972, then Bold Forbes '76, Swale in '84 and finally Thunder
Gulch in 1995. Speaking of Thunder Gulch, has anyone else out there had the
feeling this week that “the Master” D. Wayne Lukas could possibly start a new
Triple Crown streak? In my opinion, Will
Take Charge would be no more of a shocker than Commendable in 2000 at 19-1 odds
or even Editor’s Note in 1996. His
Preakness was flat but he got cut off in the Derby running alongside Orb. And don’t forget that he beat a pretty nice
colt named Oxbow in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park this spring. Perhaps the
long-striding colt will take the big turns of “Big Sandy” to his liking on
Saturday. If this happens, get ready to hear a lot of D. Wayne sound bites all
the way up to next year’s Kentucky Derby.
My pick: I am uncharacteristically going with
the chalk of Orb and Revolutionary over a wide-open field in the exotic bets. I
expect a legitimate pace between Oxbow and Freedom Child with the wild-card,
Palace Malice, to keep them honest up front. For you “key race” handicappers
out there, how wild would it be if Freedom Child ran into the trifecta with the
favorites and replicated the 11/24/2012 Race #2 from Aqueduct? Might be worth a
$6 bet!
Lukas Photo courtesy of Oaklawn.com
