I liked your analysis but I think it is arbitrary to dismiss Street Sense and Hard Spun as "dirt horses" because not only do they produce successful synthetic and turf horses as sires, they faced each other at Turfway on Polytrack in their penultimate lead in to the Fall's Breeders' Cup and they went 1-2.
I read this Stevens kid has had knee issues. Is he over that?
What about the trainer of IHA having a significant drug usage suspension and a high rate of breakdowns......And the four starts? I guess IHA will win 3yo of 2012 but WISE DAN is a much better HOY CANDIDATE inmy mind.
You forgot to add Hansen.
Your entire premise is laughably absurd.
People who study pedigree might like Union Rags more at a distance of ground than a mile and one sixteenth. Union Rags probably does not have significant distance limitations.
Pletcher having three in, and Fawkes having two in? Adds some BIG DRAMA!!
I would consider General Quarters bouncing back his allowance dirt race at CD was very good. The Firecracker is a tough race, I don't think the distance of one mile against top horses really fit him.. Demand value.
Not sure the pace will be that hot - the key will be what Castellano (Mission Impazible) and Dominguez (Rail Trip) do with their mounts heading into the short run on the first turn. If both jocks are reasonable and allow a moderate pace to develop, the speed horses could dominate the top 4 positions.
It it happens in Europe and Australia, apparently it doesn't happen for the people on the board.
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