After reading the excellent piece by Brian, on the amazing Met Mile/Belmont Stakes sweep by Conquistador Cielo. In the article,Brian touched on something that really got me thinking. After winning the Belmont Stakes,that was his 4th race in roughly a 30 day span. A sacrilage amongst todays mind set, in regards to running horses. He not only ran,he demolished the fields. Wiining 2 G1 races against older foes,and the top 3year olds in the land. Running and winning so frequently was not the exception,but the rule at the time. What happened to the game ,wheras nobody runs anymore. One would of assumed,that with medicine and track conditions improving with the growth of technology. Horses would at least run as frequently. There are many reasons as to why horses no longer run as often. One reason is,the new bigger purse structures. Purses are so large,that one can pick and chose to run. That makes sense,but that does not cover the majority of the horses. I have a theory,and it is not the end all. But if one listens to the logic,they may agree. My feeling is the coming out of 'SHEETS" and their concept. Critics of sheets will trash this notion immediately. When i say the coming out of sheets. It is because they were around for a while,before the general public picked up on them. As someone who has used them for close to 30 years, i can tell you they are a very viable and productive tool. But keep in mind,the operable word there is TOOL. They are not the end all to making money,that some will want you to believe. Proof of the emergence of sheets,is probably the most overused word that i hate. That word is "BOUNCE". To those that have no idea as to what they are talking about,a horse supposedly bounces if he wins or runs a big race. Then subsequently does not follow it up with a win. They use winning and losing as the determining factor. That is so wrong,it makes me laugh. I have seen horses run a said number and win. In their next race,the horse moves up substantially and loses. Automatically we hear them say he bounced. The reason that sheets has affected the mind set of the game is because of this. Beleive it or not,i would say that at a minimum at least. 85% of the Trainers running horses,know of the sheets and have someone whispering in their ears about their horses. Sheets are very prominent in Claiming and buying horses in todays market. They are used as a tool to place horses in upcoming races. The sheets have shown that horses do react negatively to fast races,and not enough time to recover. This is not the only reason,but it is a large contributing factor. Just 1 quick story,and it is true. Bobby Frankel who was one of the greats of his and any other generation. When he had Medaglia D'oro prepping for the Travers. He was asked in The New York Daily News how he thought of his chances. This is a true story,and i kid you not. Bobby at the time used Ragozin Sheets. He told the reporter ,that he was much more confident now than he was last week. The reason he gave,and at the time i shook my head. He said that the speed number was adjusted ,that MD ran in winning the Jim Dandy. The number was adjusted to a slower running of the race. The original number given,would of represented a lifetime best i believe. Bobby was afraid that he might not be able to come back,off of such a fast race. So here we have a super star trainer,who spent so much time with his horse. Yet was relying on the validity of sheets,to put his mind to rest.
I to was there for both Andy. The Met came as no surprise to us. But the Belmont performance was spectacular in many ways. Watching Laffit outbreak the field and stay in the outside path ,going into the first turn. That had many of us thinking that something was amiss. Boy were we ever wrong. Just curious Andy, i was on the 3rd floor Clubhouse in the section just before the clubhouse exchange on the finish line.Where were you at on this day. Curious to know if any other fans were there for both.
Making her Stakes debut in name only. As i said earlier, she is a very exciiting prospect,who should be using this as a stepping stone. Her real tests will come when she is pitted against the very best. Like i said,the most exciting prospect from me.
You say he passed tiring horses. Well in the final 16th,he made up 5 lengths on the horses that ran 2,3 and 4. If you watch the gallop out,he blew by all of them,including the winner. I hope they do not do anything stupid and alter his style. Let him drop back 10 to 12 lengths ,and make 1 run.Unless Exaggerator does not run his race,he or anyone else wont beat him.
In looking at the upcoming race, it is fair to assume that this is Exaggerators to lose. Forget strategies, pace figures,past history or anything else you may want to toss into this equation. Exaggerator is so much the BEST RACE HORSE that will be entering the starting gate, he actually sticks out like a sore thumb. That does not automatically make him a winner, they still must run the race. But based on the data we have going in,this one looks like a SLAM DUNK. In finally watching the replay of the Preakness,i was surprised as to who i saw as the 2nd best horse on this date. It was none other than the OFT spoken about Lani. Here is a horse 25 lengths off the pace after a half mile. If verhead or a pan of the stretch. He is looking to duck in as he is coming. Once his jock straightens him out,and gets him to the outside. Lani is closing fastest of all to get into the photo for place. I do nohow this translates to him and the 12F he wnning. But from a visual perspective,he would be my choice should Ex stub his toe.
Who i know in the game would spin your oversized head. But that is as irrelevant as your knowledge of this game. Knowing people in any conversation is irrelevant. Your specialty is dealing in IFS
I have met your type in many ways imaginable. You are amongst the many that think that know the game,because you were taught a very BIG word. That word is "IF". That is how people like you overcome their lack of knowledge. They justify their mistakes with that word again......."IF"
Although Stradiveri is a nice horse. Pitting him up against Exaggerator at this point. Is like allowing a boy to play amongst men. He was not ready at Pimlico,and sure is not ready at Belmont. As far as the 80K wagered. Supposedly the bet was pulled back. That was the only way he was gonna cash,and it is the only way he will cash in the Belmont.
Based on the entrants,there is absolutely no QUALITY SPEED in this race. You may laugh at the following. I expect Exaggerator to be no worse than 2 to 3 lengths off of the lead at any time during the running of the race. Kent has always told all that would listen,that this horse has more than enough speed. Look at him in the Preakness,he nealy pulled Kent out of his stirrups, into what many perceived to be a fast half mile. He was just 3 to 4 lengths off of that pace,and doing it on his own. Unless there is a trainer who is openly looking for suicidal fractions,the half just may be around the .50 second mark. Like i said,do not be shocked on anything Kent does here. If they let him,i would not be shocked if he wired them. This is a slow bunch of horses, other than Exaggerator.
American Pharoah ran big speed figures,even when he was eased
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