This is an athletic individual who so far has been able to make a decisive move and put the races away before the stretch (and then lose lengths in the stretch. Mile and a half he will have to make move latter (will it be as impactful) and then maintain in stretch. I think Wicked and/or Medal or Ride will be run him down. If he once again makes me eat my words as he has done 3 straigth times I wont be heartbroken; but will be impressed.
Left out General A Rod in my prior comment; would put him below Ride and Wicked but above Tapiture and Danza
2 levels---Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong top level; Tapiture, Danza second level; Will not include California Chrome in any bet; May be talented but think it is at a shorter distance
Was in Hot Springs to see Danza do his thing. Obviously, did not have a dime on him. Never even thought Pletcher , ran in 2 year old stakes, why is he in here ? Obvious ???s unasked. NOW KD. Still not impressed. Distance Pedigree is a maybe; Foundation is weak; NOt convinced; Ride on Curlin remains horse of interst from AD
CC is a talented horse; but I think that last 1/8 of a mile will do him in; as for the rest of the Cali contingent I don't see any that will be there at the end with the possible exception of Hopporutnity. Wicked S. and Ride on Curlin seem to ones who have the talent and distance capabilty to do this.
I can not recall a Derby Trial as intriguing as this one with three legitimate horse (have not looked at the others so it may be more). Whoever wins will conceivably be a player at the Preakness.
The California horses this year have not been strong in stamina. Hopportunity, Candy Boy, Chitu, Midnight hawk, and CC have all been suspect at 1 1/4. Most have been marginal at 1 1/8. Pedigree wise the most suspect has been CC. The talent is there with CC. But winning against stamina suspect types make me doubt he can deliever versus Wicked Strong, General A. Rod, Ride On curlin etc who are bred to handle the distance and also have shown some ability. Maybe he does a ala Smarty and stretches to 1 1/4 but count me as doubtful/
I may be alone on this but I hope Arlington, Turfway, Woodbine, Presque, and Golden Gate remain synthentic. Surface changes are great betting opportunities.
I may be alone on this but I hope Arlington,
Have only reviewed last couple of years of the derby; what strikes me is that the fields included numeous horses that 1 1/4 was not going to be a problem. This year there is alot of horses who ar accomplished but distance challenged. Betting opportutinites may present themselves.
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