Laz. Just like you do, I like looking at numbers. I think energy distribution, statistics, and internal fractions are all important in analyzing a horse. However, like I always say, while numbers NEVER lie, they often don't tell the whole truth. Class, weight, trip, ground loss, immaturity and several other parameters can cause these numbers to be slightly misleading. For example, I was all over Palace Malice after the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, but yet STATISTICALLY he was not very impressive. On the other hand, he showed potential with his immaturity, greenness, lugging, and drifting (yet still came 3rd by a measly 1/2 length). In essence, as I said in my original post, I tend to care more about my visual analysis then statistcal analysis when is pertains to juvenile racehorses. The argument you make about the horses he faced are realistic, unbiased and logical. My counter to that claim is we have not seen anywhere close to how good he might become. The horses he faced are lackluster, yes, but remember this is a Shug baby running first out who won by five lengths. Shug never asks his firsters for a huge race and the first race is not the test with him. Rather, the first race is meant to be an experiment and learning process and the second race is the test. Despite this, Top Billing showed excellent professionalism and character as he effortlessly mowed the field down. I understand your point about his 2F time and I appreciate you putting his performance in unbiased, factual and logical perspective. Laz, I would like to remind you, this colt is from Curlin out of a 4x stakes winning mare by A.P Indy. The combination of his size (trust me, I saw him up close and he is a BIG boy), his pedigree and his training (Shug), this is the type of horse I would expect to be brought along at his own, perhaps slow but steady, pace. As for your questions about his next race, I have discussed that with the minority owner and individuals who are close to the owner(s). They are aiming towards an AlwOC up next which, if all goes as planned, will be set-up for the Derby trail in February to April in hopes of qualifying for the KY Derby. This route is similar to the one Shug took with Orb. This colt is bound to improve based on his pedigree, size and trainer. Your argument about his class is acceptable, logical and appropriate. However, I just don't think he will have trouble conquering tougher opponents based on the inevitable conclusion that he will improve each race, similarly like Orb and Palace Malice did.
Thanks for the compliment, Laz. Remember though, I have only been learning about pace in depth for about ~9 months, so take my thoughts for what there worth.
No, goblin, not at all. I appreciate the information. Admittedly, I don't know much about the MassCap, so the information is useful. I'm always trying to learn more about horse racing which is the reason I regularly go on HRN.
Thanks for the information, Goblin.
If it were, perhaps Mucho going will do good for Suffolk and bring some people to the track.
Excuse me if the MassCap is expected to come back, as I have not heard anything like that.
goblin, I thought this was hypothetical because the MassCap is no longer being run. Sorry for taking so long to get back to you, I was finishing a long post to Laz on the Top Billing thread. Agree to disagree, I suppose, gob. Have a good one.
Laz. As a pace handicapper, I am quite impressed by those numbers. The fact he accelerated from a 50.38 half to a 22.86 final quarter is quite impressive. Top Billing most definitely should improve while stretching out in distance. Top Billing's energy profile was sustained. In fact, his median % was hovering at about 66.2%. In layman's terms, this means he used 66.2% of his energy in the first 67% of the race. This means, while the average is 33%, Top Billing used 33.8% of his energy for the final 1/3, which is quite good. The most impressive part about this, is, he is not too late (like many TURF horses who are about 65%) and not too early (like 67.5% or higher). In retrospect, Palace Malice had the same energy profile heading into the Belmont. The Kentucky Derby winners usually show about 66.2% to 66.8%, according to travel_vic's post prior to the KY Derby. All in all, this means based on this running, Top Billing has enough to get up in time, but the lack of early speed generates the conclusion he will be able to stretch out in distance. I'm not sure what you are getting at with 52.41 and 57.69. If you are speaking of pace parameters, which I assume you are, you are correct with you numbers. Last year, the top 8 finishers in the Derby all had final preps with 52.50 or higher for the LP. The fact Top Billing finished with a 57.21 (which i what I got) is quite encouraging. The comparison you made to Points Offthebench's time really puts his performance in the final 1/4 mile into perspective. When analyzing babies, I pay more attention to them visually then I do on paper, but statistically Top Billing is off the charts. In fact, visually he was to as he made up so much ground in so little time, rallied strongly, split horses and drew away with ease. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Very, very excited about this guy.
By the way, excuse me for bringing up the Sunshine Million Classic. For some odd reason, I was thinking the Sunshine Million Classic was run in the summer, but it is run in January... I'm not sure why I got that mixed up with some other race (I suppose).
My point was, Goblin and all (as EP stated), the "MassCap" has not been a big race for a while. I don't see the point of Mucho Macho Man going through the stress of shipping just to run in a small(er) race. The MassCap is not the same draw (again as EP said) as it was twenty years ago. Of course, though, this is a hypothetical discussion because the Mass Handicap has been off since like 2007, if I am not mistaken.
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