Chicken, You want a job doing some real research? :-)
Foaling dates are determined by the mares.It has nothing to do with whether the stallion is in demand or not.
Mares don't always go into heat when we want them to, and often they don't "take" on their first go round. It takes 14 - 16 days to tell whether or not the mare is in foal. If not, she'll cycle again (usually by day 20) and then have another go. A mare first bred in February may not actually get into foal until March or April, despite the best plans and goals of the breeders.
Also, mares don't always foal when they're due. Some will surprise with a baby two or three weeks early, while others seem to take forever.
Similar to human children, foals are born at a variety of weights and sizes. They go through growth spurts or plateau throughout the year. A sizable foal born in February may not develop his full potential until he is three, yet a scrappy little guy born in May could turn out to be precocious.
Birth order and dates are fun and interesting. Like everything else, we have to look at the whole picture.
Thanks everyone for the great responses. I hope you enjoyed reading the article as much as I did writing it.
Fixed that, sorry Bob. Not sure what happened there.
Thanks for pointing it out. Sometimes word processing programs automatically change things. I'm assuming the pedigree profile itself isn't as important as minor grammatical errors. I'll work on that.
I enjoy the old articles too. Thanks for finding and posting!
Bourbon Stables has done really well with their horses. It is nice to see syndicates organized so the every day racing fan has an opportunity to be part of the action. I hope to see you in plenty of winners circle photos, Brian!
Why don't you consider Shared Belief a current example?
My reasoning for including him as a large heart carrier are that - besides the ears, large hearts are often demonstrated on the track.
Shared Belief had only 2 blemishes on his 12 race record (one a DNF for a broken shoulder). He handled distances longer than his pedigree indicated. His damsire Storm Cat is a known large heart sire and the gene could also be passed along by Primonetta, dam of Grenfall, who is SB's 2nd damsire. Ears are similar to Z's & AP's.
Agree that Danzing Candy has had his way in his last 3 starts. Still have more questions than answers about him. Not crowning him a Derby champ and he might not want to go farther than 1 1/16 miles, but we'll find out.
I never said that pedigree doesn't count - this is, after all, a pedigree profile.
Curlin's two classic horses both had late maturing pedigrees and stamina oriented damsires, Royal Anthem and Awesome Again. Breed Curlin to a sprint/miler oriented sire and you don't get a winner at 1/14 miles.
Exaggerator may wind up to be a nice colt. So far, out of 39 horses that finished in the top three of the Jackpot since its inception, None have won past 1 1/8 furlongs, however, a case could be made for Closing Argument who finished second in the KY Derby, and is the only one of the 39 to have hit the board in a classic race. Three colts won graded stakes post-Jackpot.
Last year, everyone was on the OchoOchoOcho bandwagon, and look how that turned out.
Could Exaggerator be the exception? Sure, and I said as such in my commentary.
Vindication proved throughout his career at stud that he was not a source of stamina. In other words, how stallions are bred becomes irrelevant once they have sired enough runners to develop clear profiles of their influence.
A stallion that won at longer distances doesn’t necessarily pass this attributes to their offspring. There’s a long list of stallions who have failed to do so with the
majority of their offspring. Yes, one or two of their progeny might win at 1 ¼ miles
or beyond, yet this is the exception. Take a look at In Excess, Marquetry, Lost Code, Housebuster and Theatrical, to name a few.
Vindication has offspring out of mares by stamina oriented sires. One by Ghostzapper failed to win beyond 1 mile 70 yards, despite multiple opportunities to win at 1 1/16 miles. The other, Lady Rogue, handled 11/16 miles, but couldn’t win at 1 ¼ miles, despite having a 2 length lead in the stretch. Another by Kitten’s Joy was a sprinter/miler who failed at 1 1/8 miles. Two others by Lemon Drop Kid failed at races beyond a mile. One by Curlin’s sire Smart Strike one once in seven attempts at a mile.
I do stand corrected on the slowness of the Delta Jackpot, they were all slow that day. The Jackpot was the only race held at 1 1/6 miles. You are correct, Exaggerator did run a mile faster than most of the Louisiana-breds.
However, after reviewing the Breeders’ Cup, I stand by my assessment. The colt got a ground saving trip for the entire race. Just rounding the far turn, at the ¼ mile pole, there was room to drive a truck through. Desormeaux smacked the colt, but Exaggerator didn’t respond in time. They didn’t steady, the colt just wasn’t fast enough to get through the hole, then Cocked and Loaded closed it by drifting over to run with a tired Riker. Once Exaggerator got around Cocked and Loaded the outside, he did pass some tired horses, giving the illusion that he was gaining ground, but he didn’t quicken stride. Look at the race at the time mark of 1:24 onward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2eaCy5GdAo
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