My picks on Coast to Coast are all handicapping stakes races for established runners. My element is 2 & 3 YO maidens & 2YO stakes. Last weekend, I picked the super for the Landaluce ($455.50) my winner paid $13. Also had the winner of the SA Juvie ($11.80). Race writeup is here: http://tracksideview.net/2015/06/21/sunday-spotlight-races-landaluce-stakes-santa-anita-juvenile-stakes/
There are a lot of elements that are used for picking maiden winners. It isn't easy. Just like 'capping older horses, not every winner will fit your parameters - that's why longshots win. If it was easy, everyone could use the same formula and pick the winners every time.
I think Pharoah could be a tremendous turf sire like his daddy. Coolmore has plenty of turf mares.
Thanks for catching that. Just had the info in the wrong place.
and Loaded set a new track record at Keeneland for 4 1/2F in :51.64
Thanks Icyhotboo! If you want me to send you the spreadsheet, I'd be happy to. Just email me.
Deborah Webb, Storm Cat has nothing to do with the X-Factor in American Pharoah's pedigree. Similar to the baldness gene in humans, the large heart gene is passed from father to daughter and daughter to son.
In order to track AP's gene, we have to go back to the 7th generation. Yankee Gentleman received the gene from his dam, Key Phrase. She received it from her sire, Flying Paster, a HOY and leading sire in CA. He in turn got the gene from his dam Procene, who was '79 broodmare of the year. She inherited the gene from her sire Acroterion. His dam Stage Fright received the large heart gene from her sire, Native Dancer.
Note that the gene does not have to be active in a horse to be passed from generation to generation. La Troienne, one of the greatest broodmares in history, carried a double copy of the gene, yet it was recessive in her. Note her race record of 0-7. Yet, the large heart gene was dominant in many of her descendants. So much so that a new family line (1-X) was created.
Chicken Dinner, "Racehorse Breeding Throries" by Frank Mitchell has a chapter on birth order and cites the Finocchio study. Plus I did my own research.
Thanks for the great compliment David!
Yes, I think it's a good idea to review the previous juvenile profiles. I'll revisit the two year old profiles over the next month. Thanks for all of the comments.
Brian, you're probably right. It's hard to ascertain what a two year old will be like 6 months down the road because some can develop so much physically and mentally in just a few months, while others, who seem to be giants, have reached the height of their talent and will be bypassed by the later maturing types.
Firing Line's pedigree says 1 1/8 miles, but add in the physical, temperament, running style, etc., and we have a Derby contender.
Dortmund's pedigree also appears like 1 1/4 miles may be too far, but, again, pedigree takes them to a point, then the other factors take over.
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