D. Wayne Lukas understands what it takes to win this race and you know Titletown Five and Oxbow are do ensure a swift pace to set it up for the best of the Lukas trio, Will Take Charge, a horse with the right energy distribution profile as you pointed out in your blog. However, they are all chasing Orb and his nearest rival in the Preakness, Mylute.
Nice narrowly focused winning wager, Jarrod!
If you go back and check out the results charts Sunland Derby Day (3/24) you'll see just how ridiculously fast the track was that day. In the first race, a MSW affair, the winner finished the 6 furlong test in 1:08! Later in the card, at 6.5 furlongs the race was completed in an unbelieveable 1:13 2/5. All speed figure producers (Beyer, BRIS, etc) correctly adjusted their pace and speed figures to account for the very speedy variant that day.
Really excellent content here to get us all prepared for this powerful Keeneland meet. Thanks Laurie!
Really nice work, guys!
Great stuff, Brian! Definitely going to be a quality prep race. You know I have been an early fan of Orb despite the fact that many dismiss his last...just passed horses that collapsed after the brutal pace. A look at his BRIS pace lines reveal that he too ran way faster than he ever has or ever will run again early in a race. While all horses were tiring he had the stamina to out last all but one. Not bad for a confirmed closer. Florida Derby will tell us a lot about this improver and it appears that, given the probable starters, Orb will have no excuses as the pace should be more than honest.
Great comparison, Brian! Silver Charm was one of those rare "early energy distribution" types that also possessed that tremendous stamina which enabled him to take some heat early but have plenty left in the tank, late. Given the top contenders now having completed their second to last Derby preps, you can see that several of the more highly regarded contenders possess that "early energy distribution" profile that people get excited about early on. But, just take a look at the past several years of Derby winners (and in the money finishers). Many of these "popular" horses with early energy profiles were nowhere to be found at the end...2nd place finishers Bodemeister and Hard Spun being the recent exceptions. But, as contributor Travel_Vic would warn us, we have a long way to go before we'll know which horses will line up in the gate on the first Saturday in May. However, after the final preps are in, a look energy distribution profiles of each horse in the Derby field and how those profiles were aided or compromised in preps will provide useful clues in seperating pretenders from contenders.
Little known fact that Invasor is my all-time favorite thoroughbred. There was never a Breeder's Cup Classic contender in which I had so much confidence. Just as the sun broke through after a grey BC day, Invasor comes bounding around that final turn and if you were sitting in the stands at the top of the stretch as I was, there was no doubt who was going to win the Classic. Very deserving horse for a spot in the Hall of Fame.
I once asked trainer, Mike Harrington that question and I liked his response "All of them can run 1 1/4 miles...some will just do it faster than others".
My wife and I are still reeling this morning from this impossible to comprehend tragedy. It brought us to our knees last night and our prayers were not only for the victims but for those families everywhere dealing with mental illness that they'll seek help immediately and that as a culture we escalate focus and attention on dealing head on with this crisis. God bless those children, familes and community.
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