Nice call on the Hollendorfer stakes starter behind the 6 horse. Hope you hit the fat Exacta pay off.
Definitely like the 12 moving into the D'Amato barn but best race out of six SA lawn tries comes up short against most of the field. Hard to see him move up at 6 years-old and that long layoff is a concern. Tough to separate in the 3rd and 4th place slots so we need to go narrow in the win and place spot and hit all in the third and fourth. If I were to single a "rotation" horse in here it would be #1 Gangham Guy.
Outstanding episode guys! Really enjoyed it. I am paying close attention to your bottom of exotics bombers...very interesting. While on the grounds in Louisville last Saturday, I saw American Pharoah, Danzig Moon, Keen Ice, International Star and Mr. Z up close. Of that bunch, Keen Ice clearly looked much the best in the flesh and in his work. American Pharoah and Danzig Moon also made a great impression. International Star was just ok, and as for Mr. Z, not so much. Keep us the super work!
Great assessment here, Brian. I tend to agree especially after looking back at the performances and running times of the past several UAE races (granted, had to take into consideration the dirt surface change this year). Interestingly, based on that analysis, you could consider Mubtaahij to be a notch better than both Master of Hounds (a fifth place Kentucky Derby finish) and Toast of New York (second place finisher in the Breeders' Cup Classic). If he can learn how to change leads...even more dangerous. Doubt he'll get the perfect trip he enjoyed in the UAE, but dangerous never the less.
Good exacta hit here, Jarrod!
Thanks for the heads up on scratches. Text and wagers adjusted to reflect the early scratches from this field. Odds just before post will dictate whether or not I make the wagers posted. Going to need good value as I am less enthusiastic about this race post the scratches.
Interesting that you have both shied away from the 3 horse. What did you see (or not see) that left this one off your contenders list? I certainly have been wrong before but you caught my attention in that it s not too often in which my top selection is not among the contenders in your list.
I think the key to isolating that 5 horse yesterday was the fact that the workout information I had access to talked about the all important "how" of that horse's works not just the what time they were run in. The big clue to me was the "high action" of that horse indicating the potential "move up" going from dirt to grass. In addition, this was a very lightly raced horse compared to most of the field so not a proven "futile follower", faced much tougher last out on the dirt and good barn for recognizing "turfy" horses and getting them on the right surface.
You speak the truth, Travel_vic...making a final wager should be reserved until ALL conditions are considered including odds, scratches and track conditions. However, the public prefers analysis to be delivered well in advance of the race as most will handicap the day before or morning of. Most comments on posted analyses takes place several hours before the race is run which confirms the interest in early analysis. In addition, the preference by our followers is that we post wagering recommendations as most public handicappers will not take this additional step. Hopefully, everyone knows that a final wager should not be made until the final field and odds of the race are established. Also, the structured wagers are suggestions and I would always encourage one to base their final wagers on their own convictions in the end.
Thanks, Jon. I just returned to posting about a month ago after a bit of a hiatus. Getting my form back and hitting with more frequency as of late. A big Superfecta hit a few weeks back has me positive for this return, but I would have to go back and do the math to see what my current ROI is. I leverage our Super Screener methodology to derive both the analysis and the wagering recommendations. I have always felt that you need to back your analysis with recommended wagers and we will continue to expand on that concept in the coming weeks. Stay tuned and, in the meantime, let's cash a few tickets.
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