Top rate analysis, Scott, and I agree that Soul Driver is the one to beat. However, if one is looking for super value do consider #3 Tried and True. This horse was meant for the lawn and finally gets his shot to strut his grass-loving stuff. He possesses a wicked late turn of foot which should serve him well on this untouched fairway-of-a-turf course. Works have been impressive and he owns that "turfy" looking movement with that high leg action. Solid contender "under" at a nice price and a shot to take it all.
Thanks, Mary, it was one of those rare conviction races with plenty of value
With the scratch of #2 Yiannis, #5 Heir of Storm moves up as that one will now possess some early energy advantage in this field. I have reflected that change in the suggested wagers above.
Note,with the scratch of #2 The Man, #7 Kentuckian moves into his slot on the Exacta wager.
Nice call on the Hollendorfer stakes starter behind the 6 horse. Hope you hit the fat Exacta pay off.
Definitely like the 12 moving into the D'Amato barn but best race out of six SA lawn tries comes up short against most of the field. Hard to see him move up at 6 years-old and that long layoff is a concern. Tough to separate in the 3rd and 4th place slots so we need to go narrow in the win and place spot and hit all in the third and fourth. If I were to single a "rotation" horse in here it would be #1 Gangham Guy.
Outstanding episode guys! Really enjoyed it. I am paying close attention to your bottom of exotics bombers...very interesting. While on the grounds in Louisville last Saturday, I saw American Pharoah, Danzig Moon, Keen Ice, International Star and Mr. Z up close. Of that bunch, Keen Ice clearly looked much the best in the flesh and in his work. American Pharoah and Danzig Moon also made a great impression. International Star was just ok, and as for Mr. Z, not so much. Keep us the super work!
Great assessment here, Brian. I tend to agree especially after looking back at the performances and running times of the past several UAE races (granted, had to take into consideration the dirt surface change this year). Interestingly, based on that analysis, you could consider Mubtaahij to be a notch better than both Master of Hounds (a fifth place Kentucky Derby finish) and Toast of New York (second place finisher in the Breeders' Cup Classic). If he can learn how to change leads...even more dangerous. Doubt he'll get the perfect trip he enjoyed in the UAE, but dangerous never the less.
Good exacta hit here, Jarrod!
Thanks for the heads up on scratches. Text and wagers adjusted to reflect the early scratches from this field. Odds just before post will dictate whether or not I make the wagers posted. Going to need good value as I am less enthusiastic about this race post the scratches.
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