Good exacta hit here, Jarrod!
Thanks for the heads up on scratches. Text and wagers adjusted to reflect the early scratches from this field. Odds just before post will dictate whether or not I make the wagers posted. Going to need good value as I am less enthusiastic about this race post the scratches.
Interesting that you have both shied away from the 3 horse. What did you see (or not see) that left this one off your contenders list? I certainly have been wrong before but you caught my attention in that it s not too often in which my top selection is not among the contenders in your list.
I think the key to isolating that 5 horse yesterday was the fact that the workout information I had access to talked about the all important "how" of that horse's works not just the what time they were run in. The big clue to me was the "high action" of that horse indicating the potential "move up" going from dirt to grass. In addition, this was a very lightly raced horse compared to most of the field so not a proven "futile follower", faced much tougher last out on the dirt and good barn for recognizing "turfy" horses and getting them on the right surface.
You speak the truth, Travel_vic...making a final wager should be reserved until ALL conditions are considered including odds, scratches and track conditions. However, the public prefers analysis to be delivered well in advance of the race as most will handicap the day before or morning of. Most comments on posted analyses takes place several hours before the race is run which confirms the interest in early analysis. In addition, the preference by our followers is that we post wagering recommendations as most public handicappers will not take this additional step. Hopefully, everyone knows that a final wager should not be made until the final field and odds of the race are established. Also, the structured wagers are suggestions and I would always encourage one to base their final wagers on their own convictions in the end.
Thanks, Jon. I just returned to posting about a month ago after a bit of a hiatus. Getting my form back and hitting with more frequency as of late. A big Superfecta hit a few weeks back has me positive for this return, but I would have to go back and do the math to see what my current ROI is. I leverage our Super Screener methodology to derive both the analysis and the wagering recommendations. I have always felt that you need to back your analysis with recommended wagers and we will continue to expand on that concept in the coming weeks. Stay tuned and, in the meantime, let's cash a few tickets.
#8 Mahalo Princess was scratched from this heat and has been removed from the wagering considerations above. With #8 out the "affordability" of the tickets increased and I went less restrictive in the 4 hole of Superfectas. In examining my own Superfecta wagering records, my toughest misses resulted in leaving what appeared to be a completely illogical 50-1+ toss out of the four hole. But, to hit the ALL button anywhere, you have to go relatively thin in two of the Superfecta slots. Preferably in the first two slots of the wager.
I agree...a bonehead move on my part. Locked on #5 and #7 (the eventual exacta) and come up empty on the wagers. No excuse for that, whatsoever. Major lapse in smart wager construction.
That's okay, Mary, I believed you and thought that somehow I missed and didn't go back and check. Upon further inspection, however, that last Superfecta did hit for $2,440+. Let's hit a few more of those in the days to come.
Just a slight correction on the order of finish...9,5,3,11
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