Respectfully disagree = 3rd stringers and not G1 horses. Golden Tickets finished 2nd in the BC Dirt Mile = G1. Itsmyluckyday finished 2nd in the Preakness which I believe is a G1 race. Definitely not G1 horses.
tmallios1 - I beleive I said an indicator of "how you can play and not "how you will play."
Vic - respectfully disagree. First, practice is an indicator of how you can play. Most people with athletic backgrounds and/or coaching experience would confirm this. A PGA player striking the ball terribly in the practice rounds is not likely going to win tthe upcoming tournament. Second, it indicates the athletes condition. As stated previously, PM's performed effortlessly and in not so ideal conditions. Likely a good indicator that PM is ready to go. Finally, it contributes to a very positive mental state and expectation for the jockey and trainer. All decsiiosns will be made from a position of positive expectation vs. the horse is lethargic, struggled to get the 5/8's complete, etc. which would lead to a different approach to the race. With that said, it is a horse race and no one knows what will happen. But imo, PM's work on Sunday is very much a positive and relevant to his chances in the BCC.
Lazmannick - absolutely true. If WTC suddenly elevates his game he could do it. I have not seen any indication that he has the speed and stamina to do it yet. Perhaps he will be a horse that you can turn the light switch on and he will respond as asked.
History shows around 2:00.40 or less to win BCC at SA. WTC has not ever demonstrated he can run such a time nor is his running style match for this race. And before everyoen wrires back but its the pace, condition fo the track and on and on and on. The question remains can WTC run a 2:00 or under in any condition or pace and his past performances say not likely. He will likely get crushed in the BCC and that is not a good outcome for the parties of interest (value, 3YO Male Champion, etc.). WTC could go to another race and win and make a claim for 3YO Champion by back door = he has won 3 in a row, earned top $ for 2013, etc. My guess is WTC passes the BCC. Just my two cents and that is all it is worth.
tmallios1 - two in a row/back to back = I am onboard with you 100%. A post with wisdom - very good.
tmallios1 - a first for us = I am onboard with you 100%. Good comments.
I am not even sure we will see WTC in the Classic. He missed his chance to gain some experience racing older horses and the BCC is a pretty tough crowd to mix it up with your first time. Coupled with the amount of races run and energy spent since the KD, doubt he does well in the BCC if he enters. PM does have the experience and is getting stronger = PM will thump WTC just like he thumped Orb in the JCGC.
tmallios1 - it is one aspect of my analysis as i mentioned previously. I used that example simply to explain my opposite position of believing Palace Malice is tired, etc. it does not matter to me whether you use that or not to me. Yu, along with others on this board have suggested PM ran out of gas in teh belmont, if the jim dandy was 10 yards further WTC would have won, etc. i am providing proof that those claims are not true. if people want to believe otherwise i am good with that. I still hold strong to my position that Palace Malice is the better horse and that will be proven in the coming weeks.
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