Todd Pletcher certainly has two of the potential "Big Guns" of the 2010 Kentucky Derby prospects going into Churchill Downs this year. I'm just curious, even off the record, which of the two between Rule and Eskendereya he considers the better colt, and the most likely to have a legitimate chance of winning the 2010 Kentucky Derby? Rule, has won 4 straight on dirt, and has never been worse than 3rd in six career starts. Eskendereya has won his last 2, an allowance race at Gulfstream, and then the Fountain of Youth Stakes. I'm wondering since maybe Pletcher decided to go with Rule in the Florida Derby if he considers him a slight favorite of the two. They're both excellent 3yr.old prospects, but I think, up to this point in their racing careers, Rule has a few more races on dirt, and is possibly just a little more accomplished than Eskendereya. But with Eskendereya's ability, that could certainly change overnight. I must say, having both Rule and Eskendereya in the barn together headed for Churchill Downs very soon is a problem that most trainers certainly wouldn't mind having at all!!
Jackson Bend is a kind of "smallish colt," with a lot of heart, that looked like a pretty good prospect when he won the Dr. Fager Stakes, the Affirmed Stakes, and the In-Reality Stakes sweeping the Florida Stallion Series. But when he stepped up in class in the Holy Bull Stakes and the Fountain of Youth Stakes, as the competition got tougher, so did finding the wire first for this colt. It's hard to knock a colt very much that's 7-5-2-0 lifetime, but racing Mr. Green and Bim Bam at Calder Race Course where his win's have come, is a different "sheet of music" all together than racing Lookin At Lucky, Rule, Awesome Act, and Eskendereya all in the same race at Churchill Downs. IMO.
He may have run a terrible race on synthetics in the 2009 Breeders Cup Juvenile, but D'Funnybone, IMO, certainly deserves some respect, and consideration as a legitimate 2010 Kentucky Derby contender having won 3 different Stakes races over 3 different dirt tracks. That leads me to believe the dirt at Churchill Downs shouldn't be a problem for him to handle either, it's only the distance that's in question. But frankly, the 1-1/4 question is a legitimate question for all of the potential Derby contenders. As of now, D'Funnybone has wins in the Saratoga Special at Saratoga racetrack, the Hutchenson Stakes at Gulfstream Park, and the Belmont Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park. He'll likely be considered the favorite for the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park this weekend. If D'Funnybone walks away a winner from the Swale Stakes, that would put him on quite a nice role going into the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. And with so many other "big name" colt's getting all the glory right now, might make D'Funnybone go off at a little bit of a price. Which, IMO, with a win in the Swale Stakes would make him an excellent ATB bet for the Kentucky Derby. JMO.
Since just being recently purchased by Godolphin Stables, and sent to race at Meydan over in Dubai, Cavalryman was sent initially in hopes of racing and performing well in the 2010 Dubai World Cup. But watching his performance in the Al Maktoum Challenge Rd. 3 over the Tapeta surface where Cavalryman was a well beaten 7th, Saeed Bin Surror has made, IMO, a very intelligent decision switching Cavalryman back to turf to race in the 2010 Dubai Sheema Classic. This colt, now in his 4yr.old season, has performed well on turf, winning the 2009 Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris, the 2009 Prix Niel, and ran an exceptional 3rd in the 2009 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, beaten only by Sea The Stars, and just missing getting up for 2nd in a photo with Youmzain. He'll have some tough competition in the Sheema Classic, most likely from Spanish Moon, Dar Re Mi, and Jukebox Jury. But if Cavalryman runs to form as he did on turf in 2009, he'll be a very difficult beat in the Sheema Classic, IMO.
Admittedly, I'm a Zenyatta fan and not a Rachel Alexandra fan. But I do respect what Rachel Alexandra has accomplished in her career being a filly. That said, with Zenyatta having been off of the track for 4 months, and Rachel Alexandra for 6 months, one would have accepted both to have a little rust going into their 2010 debut races. I've followed, and been a passionate racing fan since Secretariat in 73', and believe it or not, I have won a few bucks betting on racing over the years. I also do know a little about horses. As for Saturday's 2010 debut's for both, I know what I saw. Zenyatta was not at peak level yet, but was still plenty good enough to beat a far inferior group of fillies. Rachel Alexandra was not at her peak level, but frankly instead of looking like a mare that was rusty, she looked like a mare that was spent in the stretch of her race against a far inferior group of fillies. In very short order, Zenyatta will be back to 100% peak level. Rachel Alexandra, to look anything like she did in 2009, still has a very long way to go to be at 100% peak level. Maybe her 2009 3yr.old campaign was far more taxing to her than anyone really realizes. Maybe she'll get back to a level where she'll win races and be competitive, but never repeat anything close to what she did as a 3yr.old. The one thing I am certain of, is from here on through the 2010 racing season, Zenyatta is just going to keep becoming more of a "beast." The other thing I'm sure of, when and if Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta ever face each other on the same track. Rachel Alexandra will never beat Zenyatta. Never. Zenyatta is just flat out too big and too physical for Rachel Alexandra to hold off in the stretch once Zenyatta unleashes that devastating closing drive. For other horses, especially fillies and mares, it's just an absolute onslaught. Better foes than Rachel Alexandra have tried, and failed to withstand that onslaught. TJMO.
I truly believe, and have since the very beginning when it was announced, that this whole Apple Blossom Invitational fiasco has been nothing but a complete "FARCE" by Jess Jackson from day one. I don't think he ever intended to have Rachel Alexandra at Oaklawn in April to race Zenyatta. What Jackson did do was role the dice. When that 5 million dollar offer came in from Oaklawn, he ask for an extra week for Rachel to "allegedly" train, never believing that Oaklawn would agree to his request. Then when they refused him, he would able to save face for both he and his "over-hyped" mare. But when Oaklawn officials and the Moss's agreed to the date change, right then and there Jackson had backed himself into a corner. A corner, mind you, he's been maneuvering to get out of for week's now. Even before Rachel's 2010 racing debut. So when Rachel came up short in the New Orleans Ladies, he had the out he so desperately wanted. It may not have been how he wanted it, but it was an out nevertheless. Jackson may be a pompous ass, but he's not stupid. He knows that Zenyatta is a beast on the track. And deep down, he knows that Zenyatta is simply "TOO MUCH MARE" for Rachel to hold off in the stretch once she unleashes that devastating closing drive that she possesses. Zenyatta is just too big and too physically strong for Rachel to withstand that closing onslaught. An onslaught that better foes than Rachel have tried and failed to overcome. TJMO.
I don't think there's any question that Rule should be the favorite for the Florida Derby. With 4 straight wins, and never off of the board in 7 starts, all on dirt, he certainly has the most established credentials of any of the other horses going into the race. But one potential contender, Radiohead, has already established some credentials of his on, allbeit on Turf, in Great Britain. Here are Radiohead's races and their results during his 2009, 2yr.old campaign in Great Britain:1. 5-13-09 Newmarket- stanjames.com Maiden Stakes: 2nd to High Spice2. 5-18-09 Bath- Online Betting Forum EBF Novice Stakes(class 5): Won 3. 6-18-09 Ascot- Norfolk Stakes (Group 2): Won 4. 8-21-09 York- Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 2): 3rd to older horses. Won by 8yr.old Borderless Scott.5. 9-19-09 Newbury- Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 1): 4th to undefeated Awzaan.6. 9-02-09 Newmarket- Shadwell Middle Park Stakes: 2nd to undefeated AwzaanNow in the U.S., He finished a far back 7th in the 09' B.C. Juvenile won by Vale of York. He most recently just defeated Homeboychris in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. So, IMO, Radiohead may be the one horse in the Florida Derby established enough so that he could really step up and challenge Rule. He's got an impressive turn of foot, and has raced all of the best 2yr.old's now turning 3yrs.old in Great Britain. Plus, as a 2yr.old, raced older horses in the Nunthorpe Stakes. I still give Rule the edge because he's much more accomplished on dirt, but Radiohead's Turf accomplishments leads me to believe he may be a factor in the race. JMO. NOTE: In Radiohead's first race, the initials EBF, for those who don't know, stands for (European Breeders Fund).
Well then, too bad she didn't win. Because she would have went on to Oaklawn and the Apple Blossom only to find out that Zenyatta is just "TOO MUCH MARE" for Rachel Alexandra to hold off in the stretch once she uncorks that devastating closing drive. Simply put, Zenyatta is just too big and too physical for Rachel Alexandra, or any horse for that matter, to withstand that closing onslaught. Better foes than Rachel Alexandra have tried and failed to withstand it. JMO.
I'm curious? Awesome Act winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct has been probably the most impressive Kentucky Derby prep that I've personally seen run yet in 2010. He has a turf record in Great Britain of 5 starts, with 1 win, and 2 place efforts. On off-turf surfaces. he has 2 starts on the all-weather surface at Kempton with 1 win and 1 show. On the Santa Anita Turf, he has 1 fourth place effort in the 09' B.C. Juvenile Turf. And lastly, on Aqueducts conventional dirt surface, he has an impressive win in the Gotham. Yet, on attheraces.com, the Ireland and Great Britain racing web-site, he's shown as being listed to race in the stanjames.com 2000 Guineas on May 1, 2010. I'm curious why Awesome Act's owners and trainer would have in the U.S. at Aqueduct racing in a race that's generally considered a Kentucky Derby prep race if they intend to ship Awesome Act back to Great Britain to race in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, back on the Turf, on May 1st? There's no way the timing of the two races would allow him enough time to race in the 2000 Guineas in the UK, and then ship back to the U.S. to race in the Kentucky Derby. My gut tells me that after such an impressive performance on conventional dirt at Aqueduct, that Awesome Act will ultimately scratch out of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, and take his chances on the dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May in the Kentucky Derby. TJMO.
With the 2010 Dubai World Cup rapidly approaching at Meydan on March 27th, the list of "who's who" from all over the world continues to expand for the race. They'll be plenty of big names with short odds like Vision D'Etat, Gio Ponti, Twice Over, Gloria De Campeao, and Mastery but to name a few. But if you're looking for a serious contender that might give you a little "bang for your buck" Gitano Hernando may be your horse. On Turf, he has one win, and two place efforts in four starts. But on synthetic track surfaces, Gitano Hernando has yet to taste defeat. With win three wins in Great Britain at Wolverhampton and Lingfield. He also played the spoiler at Santa Anita in the 2009 Goodwood Stakes. A prep for the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic. Making him 4 for 4 lifetime over synthetic track surfaces. With the main track at Meydan being the Tapeta surface, Gitano Hernando may be the most accomplished over synthetic surfaces that may go off at a price in the 2010 Dubai World Cup. IMO, he certainly wouldn't be a bad ATB bet in a field that's going to be loaded with great Turf stars from Europe and the United States.
