I think it is all Caleb's Posse here, here are my detailed picks for the GREAT weekend horse racing and handicapping we are going to have! I love this sport!http://handicrapper.blogspot.com/
here is my wrap-up of the Preakness http://handicrapper.blogspot.com/
Bodemiester is not getting the speed favoring track like he did at Churchill, IHA has the perfect stalking trip and wins. My full Preakness analysis is here http://handicrapper.blogspot.com/ Good luck to all! Except Andy Beyer!
I think he can at least capture the Preakness, but I question the Belmont, I have a full detailed response in my blog: http://handicrapper.blogspot.com/
Unfortunately, Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow admitted many times to news outlets that he was on Stanozlol, and anabolic steroid.Dutrow said that he administered the steroid to every horse on the 15th of every month. Big Brown was not given his shot on May 15th. The effects of the steroid last a little over a month, then the desired effects wear off quickly and side effects set in. By this time the Belmont was just around the corner and Dutrow opted not to give Big Brown a steroid shot for this month. He continued the shot after the Belmont stakes. Many people, including myself, believe that Big Brown in the Belmont was not hurt, but was going through the side effects of not receiving his shot. My blog: http://handicrapper.blogspot.com/
i thought I'll Have Another ran a big race, then along comes beyer (which I have rebutted him many times to no avail) with his God like figures and smashes down a incredibly low BSF. His numbers have wayyy too much influence to just be throwing them around like this. I applaud your rebuking to Beyer. My blog: http://handicrapper.blogspot.com/
My blog: handicrapper.blogspot.com
"This group of 3-year-olds appears even worse than the weak crops of 2011, 2010, and 2009" That line is completely unjustified, this is one of the strongest most competitive crops we have had since 2007. You said yourself that this is one of the deepest derbies we have seen in years. You base this judgement on your Beyer Speed Figures. Beyer speed figures, as you said before, are just a tool, NOTHING MORE, they do not put a numerical value (that is completely an estimation on how the track is playing) on a crop quality. I'll Have Another has now 3 for 3 and 2 G.I's. If Bodemiester would have won by a nose the BSF would have been much higher. "If the winner’s performance was unimpressive by the historical standards of the Derby, the horses behind I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister were terrible. The hot pace should have created a great opportunity for stretch-runners to make bold late moves. Dullahan and Went the Day Well could only muster too-little-too-late rallies to finish third and fourth." What does this mean? It certainly doesn't mean that these horses aren't good, they were the only 2 horses that closed on a speed bias track, instead of "should have closed" they should be commended for closing so well on the track. "Well-regarded contenders Alpha and Gemologist were beaten by 19 and 30 lengths, respectively, with no excuses. This group of 3-year-olds appears even worse than the weak crops of 2011, 2010, and 2009, with the notable exception of Bodemeister, whose effort on Saturday was so good that the defeat didn’t even sting Baffert." And your quote about Gemologist and Alpha were way off, they had too high of BSF in the wood, anyone with a half brain could have figured that out by just looking at the final time for the wood. Those 2 horses aren't great quality and that is why they finished were they did. The real beyer should have been between 105 and 108, considering the SPEED of the race and the final time. Lets be real, the BSF you are posting are not consistent and therefore, not reliable. I question the validity of the BSF's due to the fact that they are not measuring what they are supposed to measuring as a result of the Kentucky Derby (and past BSF) the speed was fast and the final time was solid, BSF should have been higher. I feel like your BSF have become more of a measuring stick rather than what they were originally for, help determining the speed of a race. Therefore is the speed is fast the higher the BSF should be, unless the time was really slow (see super saver). In this case, the fractions were really fast and the final time was not slow, therefore the BSF should be higher.
It is not based on final times, it is based on the speed of the race, hence Beyer SPEED figures. There was a ton of speed in the race.