Bayern like many horses needs to take the track with him. Throw out the Preakness where he was pinched badly and then blind sided right after, and you have two explainable losses. He can't run on a slow track. Both of his losses have come on tracks rated 2 full seconds slower than any track he has won at. In the BBC he fits the track bias perfectly, and should be given as much consideration as any other horse, without exception. Now with the jockey change to BB's go to guy Garcia, who get's him out of the gate as though shot from a gun, CC and BC won't get the jump on him. Martin Garcia is what a trainer dreams about. A jockey who under no circumstances will deviate from his planned race. It's as though BB is riding himself. I doubt BB would let MG burn Bayern out on a deep track like Saratoga when challenged when his goal is the Big One. Sure if he got an uncontested lead at Saratoga MG wouldn't have pulled him up before the 3/4s, but he didn't so he did. He can get the distance, and on a fast track he's for real. Just my opinion. At this point even though I have what I believe to be the top 4 or 5 finishers, I can't line them up because even though though I believe Shared Belief is very good, I can't determine if he's even better than that because he truly hasn't been tested yet. Until you put a competitor in any sport under pressure evaluation is extremely hard.
Yes, if I thought strongly enough about it or the situation nudged me that way. For myself odds are just part of the whole picture, as value for me at least is in winning. I handicap a race from different angles, from most probable to least probable, wager on it from different angles according to how I feel after going through the process. I don't start the handicapping process by trying to beat the favorite or any other horse, I'm as objective as possible. One of the few exceptions being when "class differential" is involved as that trumps any type of handicapping I'm aware of, and loking at the tote board is the only handicapping neccessary. I don't understand not betting an exacta in the BCC or any other BC races at 4/1 as I know I'll get the best effort possible as I previously stated. In 2012 after a losing bet on The Fugue to start a 4 race parley I took 5/1 on Groupie Doll over Diamonds and Dust in the exacta to make up for the value I lost. As my next bets were at 6/5 and 9/5 I couldn't bet GD at 3/5 without risking a large part of my allotted bankroll for the session so I went with the exacta. Ones goal coupled with the situation at hand is really the final arbitrator. If some of these odds are incorrect it's because I'm going from memory as best as possible. The only two I am sure of are the exacta and the 9/5 which was Wise Dan and the last wager for that parley. If you think 4/1 is low I've wagered on horses with less odds. Wise Dan at 4/5 (class) was an overlay to me. As was Game on Dude at 3/5, 6/5 and 8/5 when he was the lone speed. If the horse has to fall or throw the jockey to lose, anything from 3/5 up is a huge overlay. Don't lock me into this as I haven't looked at a form, but CC is the controlling speed in this race if he's right. This partiular race is where that tremendous versatility will help him, especially if they go to the lead, as he's the fastest out of the gate he can then let Big Cazanova pass him after the quarter Moreno pass him at the half then take over. Of course it isn't this simple, but it's one of quite a few scenarios. As I said I haven't looked at the form but the main reason I thought this was a good betting race was the odds on the possible winners (the horses I like at the moment) range from Shared Belief 6/5 , California Chrome 4/1, Tonalist 5/1, Moreno 20/1, Big Cazanova 50/1, and there are more. Being primarily an exotics bettor vertically, I don't even have to exactly select the winner to win big. Having it down that pat would be great, but it's unlikely most of the time. I feel strongly wagering vertically on exotics may not give me the winning percentage that others enjoy, but the payouts more than make up for it. Once in a while I'll bet only one horse in a race, but I like that situation as it's not my bread and butter, it's icing on the cake if I win, and a smaller percentage of my average wager on an exotic.
"Nice wagering race for whoever locks onto it" What I meant by that is we all have our idiosyncrasies when it comes to wagering. Since I wager primarily on exotics, exacta, trifecta's. I don't need the odds that others do. Should it come down that my first three choices are favorites I can eliminate betting the single horses and sometimes the exacta, and concentrate on the trifecta primarily. However if the exacta payoff should be at least 4/1, I'm not going to pass, but simply include it and bet more. Naturally exceptions exist as is the case with just about everything. Actually I will rarely wager before seeing the horses. However on BC day it's not really necessary as every horse is going to be in the best form the trainer can get them in, and I know this isn't just a tightner for another race. The other thing the form factor on BC day allows me to do that I don't normally do is wager horizontally. However when betting horizontally the odds are a factor, as I don't play the typical pick 4s, but prefer to retain the option to play or pass with myself as post time approaches should changes happen. This method also gives me second chances should I select 4 races for my parley and miss the first, or first and second. If I miss with the first or first and second I can still continue my parley sometimes by making adjustments such as turning a single horse wager in the parley to an exacta to make up for the loss in value. On BC day, if I plan on playing a parley going to OTB is a necessity, as the on line betting sites have limits that a winning parley can't bet. I can't explain everything in one small comment, but it gives a general idea how I generally do things, and that I determine whether the bet will be put in as I'm not locked into a situation where control has passed me by.
This race IMO is wide open. The only horses I would toss are the deep closers. As for the rest some are very questionable for different reasons, but I still believe the first three finishers will come from the first and second tier. I can't dismiss CC after what was either his swan song or a good tightner. Bayer on this surface can get the distance IMO. Tonalist was as much affected as Zivo when Maragh fell. The thought of that long striding giant on that fast track unhindered is mouth watering. Nice wagering race for whoever locks onto it.
They changed surfaces but from dirt to dirt. I highly doubt that Stronach will want anything but speed, speed, and more speed for the BC.
Nicely done Brent. I love the fact you went for the score while also protecting your investment. I would really like to see a follow up article on the Erin Index. Well written, and informative, thanks for the information and such an honest presentation. It really is a feeling like no other to be in the zone, even for a short time. Best of luck!!!
This track (SA) carries speed like few others. 2012 Fort Larned/ Mucho Macho Man. 2013 Mucho Macho Man. Only Parx carries early speed like this. On this track I believe that the three first spots will be taken by horses running in the first and second tier. Bayern should love this track. Sometimes something about a particular horse stays with a bettor. For myself it was him getting out slowly in the Preakness and getting squeezed badly by the filly from the #6 PP and California Chrome jumping out like shot from a cannon and in order to establish position pushed the #3/#4/ into Bayern. The problem with pace handicapping is that a race has to be bet about three different ways to cover contingencies, as there is no pace until the race starts, which should be obvious but in many peoples minds only one pace scenario exists, where there should be at least three, also the break from the gate is crucial to a front running style. I usually wager on this race with exactas, tri's, and supers (supers I've cut back on, very hard to hit). Plus I usually bet two horses to win, putting the most the horse I like best usually about a 2/1 ratio. Best I can do to answer this as the field isn't set. Then the real guessing starts. GL
Bayern like many horses needs to take the track with him. Throw out the Preakness where he was pinched badly and then blind sided right after, and you have two explainable losses. He can't run on a slow track. Both of his losses have come on tracks rated 2 full seconds slower than any track he has won at. In the BBC he fits the track bias perfectly and may well be the beneficiary of a pace meltdown. On this track he can come the last half in :49.3/5, maybe :50.0 which makes him a winner, unless another horse displays something we haven't seen yet. That would be shared belief. However that's only on pace scenario among many others possible. When the PP are draw it should be clearer.
Second tier stalker here.
most likely fractions are these. :23.2/5-:46.2/5-1:10.1- 1:35.2- 2:00.4/5 much like last year. I think they'll try a stalking trip out of necessity for Bayern as he doesn't get out of the gate fast enough. Look how they pinched him in the Preakness, twice, and I have the still pictures. As for judging a horse off a track record at Del Mar, this is the race I would have loved to see Game On Dude run in. I believe he's a better horse now than ever before after that amazing run against the track bias at Del Mar. If he got a 1:10.2/5 3/4s he'd win. I GUARANTEE IT!!! Why retire a horse that's running great? and he was.
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