If you handicap the race, you realize that CC is coming off of a 3 month layoff and an injury. Plus, this race is coming up light on pace horses. If Bayern gets loose on the lead at 9 furlongs you could have a repeat of the Haskell. If CC challenges him early off the 3 month layoff, he could tire late. It's a horse race and while CC should be the prohibitive favorite, 4-5 and 1-9 horses lose every day.
I'm thinking more along the lines that someone's handicapping algorithm spit out many 1 dollar tickets and 1 of them happened to win.
Bob is right, sort of. This year that's been the case, but in the 2011 BCC he didn't see Drosselmeyer coming and in the 2012 BCC he didn't break well, but he would have run into a buzzsaw with Fort Larned or Mucho Macho man anyway. In the 2013 BCC both Moreno and Fort Larned wanted the lead too. And in this year's BCC G.O.D. won't be the only pace horse either IF Moreno makes it. It's hard for a 1 denominational horse to win consistently and this is just the beginning of the end. It was a good ride.
How is Shared Belief untested? Rather, what test does he need to pass for you to accept he's the best horse in America right now? He should be favored to win the BCC at this point. WTC may be done, as he's not in the same form as he was earlier this year or late last year. IMO the real test for Shared Belief is can he run on Santa Anita's dirt as well as he does on all weather and Los Al. Los Al seems to have a dirt surface that all weather horses enjoy, sort of like Churchill Downs. When I see a horse like Soi Phet set track records at Los Al it make me wonder about the surface and glad that we'll see Shared Belief in the Awesome Again.
Maybe you're new to horse racing but winning the Kentucky Derby and/or Preakness is not really the measuring stick you think is. Rarely does the best horse in the field win the Kentucky Derby and rarely do really good horses run back in 2 weeks for the Preakness if they don't win the Derby. Beating older horses in a grade 1 race at 10 furlongs is far more impressive and a gauge of ability than beating 3 year olds in early season races, most of whom will never compete at the grade 1 level again. The question for California Chrome fans is can he be competitive against older horses at 10 furlongs at horse race pace, in addition to the 3 year olds that may have developed slower than he did. Shared Belief has proven he could, at least on all weather. California Chrome's won't be able to answer that question until the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Gotcha. I didn't read as thoroughly as I thought I had. Thanks.
Why no Lucky Player? He's the only horse so far to earn a trip to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. I'd think he'd be at the top of the list. Most of the horses on the list have yet to even run a route of ground but Lucky Player's won a route stakes race.
If I remember correctly the Iroquois Stakes was traditionally run around (maybe a week before) the BC Juvenile, and was only moved back this early in the season last year to accommodate the new late summer Churchill meet. Therefore a stat about winning the Iroquois and the BC Juvenile or Derby wouldn't be that helpful/predictive. Having said that, Tapiture ran 3rd in this race last year I think and he made the Derby field. He's having a fairly good Grade 2/3 type summer. Ride on Curlin was also in this race last year and he ran 2nd in the Preakness. We could be getting a preview of the 2015 Derby trail.
So the stat about Bob B. winning this race 11 of the last 18 times or the fact that post 1 has produced more winners than any other post at "Golden Rail" Del Mar were irrelevant? He was the second choice on the board. No big shock.
With all due respect not in grade 1 or 2 routes on dirt. If that were so Moreno and Game on Dude would rarely loose. On 8/23/2014 at Saratoga there were 6 dirt races and none were wire to wire jobs. 2 races, including the Travers, were won by closers.
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