Not to get ahead of myself, but if successful in the UAE Derby might she venture over to Kentucky? I see Green Desert on the sire side and think American dirt racing and Machiavellian on the dam side and think Street Cry/Zenyatta.
Big Brown, Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, Danza, Commanding Curve, and too many more to mention. The 2 prep path to the Derby has been become very common lately. Orb and California Chrome have been the exception to the rule, just as the morning line favorite winning the last 2 Derbies has been an exception. This year has the feel of huge upset.
As you are probably aware, stats can be very deceptive. For example, the LA Derby was run 8 weeks before the Derby historically. Further, between 1989 - 2009 the LA Derby was run at 8.5 furlongs. Again, if you're looking for a final Derby prep you'd probably look for a 9 furlong race and closer to the Derby than 8 weeks out, although Friesan Fire attempted to do it off an 8 week layoff in 2009. Since 2010, when it returned to 9 furlongs and 5 weeks before the Kentucky Derby, the LA Derby has produced several horses that have finished on the board in the Kentucky Derby, including Nehro (2nd in 2011), Golden Soul (2nd) and Revolutionary (3rd) and Mylute (4th) in 2013, and Commanding Curve (2nd) in 2014. I'd say it's faring pretty well as a prep recently.
Understood. Big Brown ran in the FL Derby in his 3rd lifetime start. Animal Kingdom ran in the Spiral in his 4th lifetime start. Curlin was in the AR Derby in his 3rd lifetime start. So was Summer Bird. Nehro was in the LA Derby for his 4th lifetime start. I could continue but it's not a rush if a horse moves through maiden and then allowance conditions easily. Khozan is an expensive horse bred to be good early, and since he's shown signs that he might be the FL Derby is the only race that makes sense. If the FL Derby doesn't work out then he might run in the Peter Pan/Dwyer then the Belmont. Social Inclusion was a pace horse with a questionable 10 furlong pedigree in the hands of a decent trainer that had never been on the Derby trail. He was mismanaged. Khozan has a 12 furlong pedigree and is being trained by a guy that won the 2010 Derby and has put horses on the board in the last 2 Kentucky Derbies. I think Todd is doing the right thing here.
Khozan reminds me of Dunkirk. Both were long winded but neither had a brilliant turn of foot for a dirt horse. I think Dunkirk went the 7f, 9f, and then Florida Derby route. Dunkirk got slammed out the gate in the Derby and was a non factor, but rebounded to run 2nd I think in the 2009 Belmont.
Fair enough. The 1/62 stat you mentioned and the Apollo curse will probably keep him from being underlaid come Derby day, as well as the Verrazano comparisons. That's all a handicapper can hope for as streaks and curses only are true until they aren't, like a horse never winning from post 19 or 20, etc.
How so? Different running style, pedigree, trainer (and training philosophy), and jockey. They are both horses though....
IMO the story of the race was the return of The Truth or Else. Off a layoff Calvin Borel took the overland route and was just a bit short. I think Borel found his Derby horse, more along the lines of MTB not Street Sense or Super Saver.
I've heard the Verrazano comparisons but I think they are unfounded. The only thing these 2 have in common is the trainer. The pedigree is far different: More Than ready had 0 grade 1 dirt winners at 10 furlongs or further; Distorted Humor has more than I can remember. On the dam side they are night and day different as well. Verrazano liked to race on or near the lead and Khozan is good anywhere, including wide, behind horses, and with dirt in his face. I welcome the comparisons because it almost guarantees that if Khozan were to make the Derby he won't be underlaid. Then the masses will say why didn't I use him.
It's the shortest stretch in the country for an 8.5 furlong race. At 9 furlongs it's not a problem. Johnny V is Carpe Diem's jock so Nick Zito might need to line up a plan B.
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