Danza is in a no win situation. His victory is thought of as a fluke, product of a dream trip, evidence of a suspect field, or a combination of all the above. Sometimes the public is just wrong and horses come out of nowhere. I’ll Have Another just did that 2 years ago. I’m hoping I can get the same type of odds on Danza as I got on him.
Isn't this race a 9 furlong race? The distance shows 8 furlongs.
I’m hoping Commanding Curve makes the Derby, and I think there’s an outside shot he will. As poorly as Vinceremos and Harry’s Holiday ran in the Blue Grass you’d have to think one if not both won’t move forward. Then, if Dance with Fate or another horse in the top 20 doesn’t go, Commanding Curve is in.
Not sure how a rail trip with a slow final furlong makes Constitution “In with a chance” but a rail trip with a fast final furlong makes Danza a pretender. When I see Danza I think Proud Citizen. Peaking at the right time is very important in a run for the roses and I think that describes Danza.
You'll need a new 3rd because Knock em flat is running in the Northern Spur instead.
Cairo Prince will make the Derby. He’s 16 on the points list now and the most likely scenario is even without additional defections, at most 4 horses will pass him this weekend (mathematically I believe it could be 6 but the odds of that are extremely low). He needed a race, and even though I’m not his biggest supporter I can see him finishing in the top 5 and at least fair odds.
Speed figures have no predictive value when there is a tangible change (jock, equipment, trainer, surface, etc.) to a horse. In the Wood, Wicked Strong was reunited with Rajiv Maragh. Did he improve since FL or get a different/better ride in the Wood? The article implied Mine That Bird “improved” and was able to win the 2009 Derby, but he was also ridden for the first time by Calvin Borel, the best modern day Derby jock. Unless all horses in the 2014 Kentucky Derby have the same exact equipment as their last race speed figures provide less predictive value than advertised.
I wouldn’t say that Candy Boy’s spot is safe at 30 points. He’s 16th now, and if you do the math as many as 7 horses could pass him up this weekend. More realistically though, I’d say maybe 4 or 5, which would put him in a position to be right on the bubble or need at least 1 more defection to run in the Derby. It sounds like John Sadler has resigned himself to the fact that he won’t make it, but he still has a shot.
I think I read Brian Zipse comparing Wicked Strong to Pleasant Colony, but as far as throwing stamina horses, Hard Spun is no His Majesty. I see Wicked Strong as more of a Normandy Invasion type, running late but probably not good enough to win. Maybe a 3rd – 5th place finish in the Derby, which isn’t bad at all.
Derby winner? Let's tap the brakes on that one. Derby favorite? At this point, barring an unbelieveable performance in the Arkansas Derby, probably so.
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