I need a draw and some post positions. Then the real pace predictions can begin. There are rumours that Always Dreaming may go to the front. If he draws low, he will have too. There are a bunch of jockeys with the try and sit in fifth mentality, this race could be essentially over for a few horses based on the first turn.
I'll see you at the windows cashing out. Class is Class. If you're hoping for a horse to run the race of his life, it probably won't happen in a field like this. Classic Empire, Practical Joke and Always Dreaming have beaten stacked fields.
Those Tapits seem to go big or not show up at all. Hence I see as a total bomb. This is a huge step up. I do like him better than McCraken though. I don't think his odds will be where I would need them to be. A lot on his bandwagon now. This is going to be such an exceptional betting race. I started thinking I'd bet around $150, but I think I gotta double it. I got two horses I'll be pulling for, Gunnevera and State of Honor. Unfortunately they are not in my top three, Empire,Practical Joke and Dreaming. I will need some wagers with my heart on top. It's been a long time since a Canadian bred wore the roses. He is sitting on a big race. Gunnevera has a great story and I have followed him from the beginning( although I was always hoping 3rules would crush him). With Javy in the irons, if he gets his trip, he may make it look easy. Post position could knock AD down to 4 for me. Good luck this year richard
You got some of the right horses rj but Hence and Tapwrit on top isn't going to cash
Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry,McCracken will be the lowest possible say $800-1000.
Class and Talent are the issue
This type of wager seems fun but I enjoy the handicapping portion and would need to throw at least an element in. If anything this post should remind folks there are 380 possible outcomes for the exacta. Most people tend to bet more on key combinations rather than playing coverage on the exacta. Perhaps a $30 exactor box 2 favs and 4 others. Or 8, 3&5. Could be an interesting wager for a small group of casual fans. I may have to do an "eight I don't hate" exacta box.
Great article, I would disagree with a couple of things. First the 3hr past performance study. This time is better spent rewatching the prep races or viewing the horses if at the track. In races of this magnitude that you are going to bet a nice chunk of change on, you should be beyond what the program is going to give you by race day. Second, the subtraction method. The idea of getting down to an affordable bet. The very thought of a Budget means staying within your means. A larger budget doesn't mean you should throw in a bunch of longshots. Start at the top, with 2 or 3 horses, build your wagers to your budget and play preference. Example: your budget says $48, and you wanna play a tri and a super. Your not going to have a dozen horses below, so spending too much time scratching out your bottom ten just to get to your real choices is a waste of time. Working from the top down you may decide you'd rather play the tri for a dollar instead of adding an extra bomb. The idea is to win as much as you can. Not cover as many horses as you can. I know lots of people who hit the tri and super last year, some made very good money, others broke even, coverage is overrated and expensive.
After deciphering the secret codes displayed in my morning alpha-bits, I've decided to forget everything I've learned in the last six months in favour of wagering based solely on the colour of Todd Pletchers tie.
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