i congratulate you for your selections , atleast 3 horses came from your selection in the order of 1st, 2nd and 4th, very good indeed!
i have changed my selection for the Belmont after watching the report of workouts on drf, my new selection will be. 1.Freedom Child,2.Orb, 3. Golden Soul, 4th Giant Finish (long shot) and oxbow.
Freedom Child has very good chance to capture the Belmont Stakes, along with Over Analyze, Vyzack and Golden Soul, Palace Malice in the derby lead all the way and then tired very badly, it does'nt suggest that he can not hold 1-1/2 mile distance like the way he did i the derby, so for this reason, i struck him out, Revolutionary came 3rd in the derby with Calvin Borel , now they put Castellino who did not took the mount on him in the derby, so i think that he is not sure that REVOLUTIONARY is good enough for the derby, so there is a question mark why he chose other horse in the derby? for this reason i also struck him out from my selection. there will be an upset winner in the Belmont Stakes this year.
it is very unlikely that Unlimited Budget will beat the boys, simple because she has'nt got that kind of talent, she may come in the place, but i doubt also, i figure it that Freedom Child, or Over Analyze or may be Vyzack (because his recent workouts are fabulas)so the Freedom Child!
Belmont ground will be dry, and those horse experince win in a wet ground like sloppy going, have little chance to do the same running in the dry track, so Orb did'nt do well in Preakness, and badly beaten by oxbow by 9 lengths, it shows that he is not good at dry going although he won last 2 races before derby in dry going by JV, it was 1-1/8 miles race, did'nt won easily , he was lucky in the derby because of wet grounds, some other horses migjht not like wet grounds, so he won that race, but in belmont stakes is different than other 2 big races, i will consider Freedom Child although he won in the sloppy track but that win is very very impressive, he won last 1/16th of a mile just by hand riding, he was going away and away from the rest of the fields, timing was'nt too bad, 1-1/8 miles, his timing was 1-49, where as Orb timings in Florida derby (dry track) 1-1/8 miles was 1.51 sec, he just won not as surprisingly as Freedom Child did in Petar Pan? so i select Freedom Child, Oxbow, Revolutionary ,Golden Soul and Unlimited Budget.
in my opinion: 1.Freedom Child,2. Golden Soul, 3. Revolutionary 4. Oxbow, ORB will not win the Belmont, i do'nt even consider him as a contender who finished 8-1/2 behind Oxbow in Preakness, once that horse beaten by many lengths, there is very little chance to bounce back.
Mr. Shug told also the same things before the Preakness Stakes and he was so confident that his horse end up in 4th place 6 lengths behind, so do not take words from any trainer , only trainer's word 90% perfect , it was late Robert Frnkel, i belived him waht he said. generally outsider horse with longshot wins the belmont stakes, i got Sarava 65-1, Jazil 9/2 , it was a big day for me. last year favourite came second behind winner. so i do not take any words from any trainer or any pundit, i analyze myself whatever experience that i have in handicapping horses, this year i will not place any bet in belmont after loosing heavily on ORB in Preakness,
Rosario had 3 chances for opening in the Preakness, but inspite of his big effort to get through the opening, he failed to achieve that, instead he took the railing side, in his last attempt to get out side position ,Orb tried utmost effort but ultimately loosing grounds, so it indicates that he might not like dry gropund despite his previous 2 winnings on dry ground, it shows that either he was tired or he run out of gas. so under this circumstances many people might say he will bounce back, i watch the 2013 preakness video many times recently, and observed that the gap between 4th place and 3rd place was atleast 5-6 lengths, it was too much, i think that a outsider horse will win the belmont stakes, i am leaning towards GOLDEN SOUL, he has a very good pedigree : Perfect Soul out of Sadler's Well and Secretariet. and also a very strong jocket Robey Alborado?
in Preakness Stakes there were only 9 horses and there was no traffic issues, that is an excuse to get way from blame game, Rosario had plenty opportunities to take Orb outside , but he did'nt , instead he was pace saving, that is not going to happen if the horse has a stamina power, same thing happened in 2011 ken.derby with Dialed In, if the horse can not able to take position in early stage, he has no hope to recover space, is it as simple as that.Orb was lucky that he won the derby on a wet track, if it was a dry track, i doubted very much that he won the derby, i watch many big races, similiar pattern those horse took , lost the game. Jazil came 4th from the last in the derby which won by Barbara, in the same year Jazil showed the world how to win the Belmont Stakes coming from behind, that was really a good stamina minded horse. so Mr. Dani Pugh , your logic is not as good as used to be, Remember 2013 Preakness fields were small, so there is no question of traffic jammed? it is just an excuse?
if it is a wet track in belmont like churchill downs, i like Zipse analysis, if it is a dry track in Belmont Zypse's analysis is nothing but a joke?
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