NI gets 6lbs from PM after setting a track record over the same course that PM ran over. This is why I hate weights, because they make no sense. Just line up at equal weights and see who is the best IMO.
Probably pointing to the Azeri, I would think, if they are aiming for the Apple Blossom.
I agree, i was not impressed with onlyforyou. I do really like fiftyshadesofgold, and think that she could be the most underrated filly this year, for the fact that she lost the adirondack, waited a long time to return, and then returned against state breds in Texas. I think she'll prove in her next start that she is one of the top fillies of her generation.
Tell me where i said variant is not important? I NEVER did. I said variant is dependent upon time which is true. You proved that point of mine in your fifth sentence. You know the variant will be high or low because of the time. I also said it is dependent upon the splits, which you proved again, because like i said the pace tell us through the time. Time tells us if the track is slow or fast, so if you see a fast time on a slow track, with a fast pace behind it, you know darn well it is fast. You know the variant because you know the time. Without the time you would not know the pace nor would you know the variant. Tell me how you would be able to come up with numbers for variant, pace figures, or final race figures? You can't.
Because time is the one and only constant in racing. Time doesn't change. It is the basis of numbers. Other variables are used, but at the very base of all numbers used time is there. Not track variant, not energy distribution. Time. Time tells us how a track may be playing ie. Slow or fast. Time could tell us the energy distribution of a horse and where and how much they distributed it. Time is what we use. If you don't have time you have nothing, because your eyes, no matter how accurate, can lie. I do not talk about raw time. I do talk about pace and splits. Why because the time tells me how fast they ran and how hard they ran early or late. So yes, Time is what i keep bringing up, because no matter what way you slice it, that is what everything, pace, numbers, track variant, everything is based on. Laz, I get where you are coming from, and at longer distances, I'd agree that Intense Holiday would have had an excellent shot at running Untapable down. But because her splits were so close to what Albano ran, I don't believe he would yesterday. A horse can close like a train, he/she can close faster than that of the horse in front of them. But if the horse in front is not slowing down enough, and is not coming back fast enough for that particular distance, the closer will not get there. IE, Top Billing. Just look at his splits. My lord, the final half of his race was fantastic, but due to the distance and the two in front of him not slowing down enough, he couldn't get there in time. A 8.5f, Untapable wins. I think if she isn't geared down late then she probably could have run another two or so lengths faster. That is an opinion, which is why I would try her against the males. The pace she ran and the speed overall of her race was on par and even faster than the Risen Star, and she won it much easier. Those things are facts. The opinion, is that she could have gone two lengths faster, if asked, and if that is so, that opinion, coupled with facts makes one think that she would have a very good shot if she were to run against males going 9f. Like I said, she already has secured a spot for the Oaks. After Sat, why not try your hand with her in a Derby prep? I am not saying she would win. I have been saying that her race indicates she would have a very good shot at winning, and there is not much one can say, supported by facts, than can dispute that.
When you can show me facts to attest to that then I'll believe you. But you have no facts to tell you or me, or anyone that the 80% to 50% is true. You also say your sheets. Well you and several others have numbers and she was not the fastest one out there, colt or filly. The only constant is time. Time tells us so many things. If it and pace does not matter, then why on earth bother wearing watches. Why on earth bother timing anything? Her energy distribution, based on pace was just as fast in the first half, then faster in the later stages than the Risen Star. Intense Holiday had no excursion until late in the race, and albano, with very little pressure could not hold him off. Untapable is not a pace filly. She showed she can easily relax off the pace and then make an explosive move. That means her energy distribution is perfect as far as any race dynamics come into play. She won't get caught in a duel and overextend early. If the pace is too slow she can stay close. Her move would have overwhelmed Albano yesterday, and staved off Intense Holiday. It was not like she had an easy loping lead or came flying from off the pace. The set up for her was nearly identical to the Risen Star and she still ran faster. Yes, the fillies she faced, did not look special yesterday, except for the fact she beat a champion and grade one winner. Facts say she's beaten one of the best fields of 3yr old fillies this year. Facts say she ran an identical pace to Albano. Facts say she ran faster than either Albano or Intense Holiday, suggesting that she can hand with graded stakes colts. He running style suggests that she would have the perfect run to avoid over-extension, no matter who she faced.
With all due respect tmallios, look at the fractions of the RA vs the Risen Star. The RA was a faster paced race, by about 2-3 lengths from the time the gates opened to the finish. From the first call to the half Untapable probably ran right around the same pace as Albano did, as he was setting the pace, after that point she quickened and surpassed his rate of speed, from there to the wire. She won as easily as a horse can be asked, going at a faster rate of speed, while also keeping that pace and finishing in a faster time. Fillies often times mature and come into their own much faster than males, so that also gives another good reason to take a shot. You mention Dame Dorthy, a horse who dominated in the slop against what? Untapable is a stakes winner, beating stakes winners. She has the most impressive prep of any three year old this year. All in all, you have a stakes winning filly who just decimated a nice field of her own peers, ran a race that was equal to and faster in both pace and final time than that of the Risen Star, which was contested vs males, and who just ran arguably the most impressive prep of any three year old this year. To me, that merits a shot to take on males.
Untapable sure looked great. I will say, with Ria Antonia not showing up, and now Streaming exiting with a knee chip, you do have to question what was behind her. However, it doesn't take away from the overall time and visual impressiveness of the win. As well as the fact she ran faster than the boys in the Risen Star. She is likely already securely in the Oaks, after that win. Why not take a shot in the Louisiana Derby or Arkansas Derby, to see what they have?
That is my point. they did not come home in 7 seconds, but over 2 lengths faster, and he actually did make up about 2 lengths in the final 1/16th. All of what you are saying is not supported by the final times or charts, which are facts and numbers based on how the race was run. You are wrong in all accusations period. Final fractions show he did anything but stall. And the Chart says he sure as the lord almighty, gained more than an inch.
The people who say Top Billing stalled honestly have not looked at the final fractions or have no clue what a good closing figure is for any race, let alone, a two turn route. Final 9/16ths went in 54 and change, averaging about 12 seconds per 8th at that rate. His final 5/16ths went in 29.91. That averages a shade under 12 a furlong. That is moving, literally like a machine. That means, that after a big middle move, he was actually getting even stronger, not stalling. His final 1/16th was 6.35. That is a very, very good final 1/16th, and far from stalling. He actually made up about 1.5 lengths during that final 1/16th, again disproving any person that says he stalled out. Knowing that final 1/16th, the quarter mile before he ran in a jaw dropping 23.56 seconds. The half in 47 and change. That is not stalling. Far from it. He simply had too much to do and not enough time to accomplish it. Shug had actually been quoted as wanting him to show more speed. From the 12 post Rosario looked like he was going to let him, in the beginning stages, before recognizing that if he did he'd get caught extremely wide. So instead he took back, so that he could get an inside route. That decision was the better of two evils, as he instead ended up over 13 lengths behind the front two, who did not have the presence of a very fast Almost Famous to pressure them. Rafi, is correct by saying the top two were aided by the track. They were. I don't think a bias was against Top Billing, but the track was so fast it allowed the front runners to run longer than either of them may have wanted to over a deeper, more tiring surface. The final time of 1.41.85, also shows that Top billing did not stall, but the front two simply did not come back to the field. They simply kept running. The final 1/16th for the top two was 6.61. That is a very respectable time. Not crawling by any means, and is about 2.25 lengths faster than that of a horse closing in 7 seconds. Had they come home in that time, Top Billing would have nailed them in the shadow of the wire, as his final time was approximately 1.42.19, and theirs, with a 7 second final 1/16th would have been 1.42.24.
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