I'd take Lucky over Will Take Charge. Everyone always gets sucked into one horse because "he would have won if not for his horrible trip." He had a great pace set up and came running, true. However, if he was so full of run why wasn't he able to regain composure and keep running on, instead of finishing out of even the top 6? Lucky was just off a record setting pace and like every other speed horse dropped. We also have no clue if the mud had anything to do with his performance or not. On a dry track, he's never been worse than second this year, where Will Take Charge has been far from consistent wet or dry track. Except for that I'm pretty much in agreement.
He beat the favorite curse once, think he can do it again. He has a great juvenile foundation, was not coddled with only two races at three, but instead never ran less than 8.5f in four races. Gulfstream doesn't have a long stretch by any means, and for a closer to be able to gun down speed over that track is telling, and i should have noticed that. If he can gun them down at that track, I see no reason he why can't at Pimlico. Southern Humor, I doubt this will be a tired colt in the Belmont. He has a very very solid foundation, unlike many who have attempted the TC recently. IHA only had two races at two, and two races at three before he won the Derby and Preakness. Big Brown had even less, only three races total. Our most recent hopes have been carried by horses not used to the rigors of racing. Orb race a total of 7 times before this. He has also only raced less than a mile twice in his career. He is used to running and he's used to running long periods. He has gotten better with each race, instead of regressing. His progression is steady, unlike many colts today. I don't see this one losing the TC because he is too tired to handle the rigors of it. If he is to be beaten it will be because he was not the best horse in the race.
He had nothing left because that is called a pace meltdown. There was not once single horse that was up near that pace that finished in the top three, or four. Suicidal pace over slop equals melt down and that is what happened. No horse was going to survive that pace, not on that track. To say he wasn't good enough is uninformed. All one has to do is look at the track condition and pace and at who actually survived it, ie. nobody and see that anyhorse near that pace had no shot period. Didn't matter how good they were.
Funny Cide had the lead turning for home in the Wood, had it for a short time in the stretch before Empire Maker passed him. It was not by daylight, but under a hand ride. So, if we are being picky, it happened exactly 10 years ago.
yukichan, we have the same top three, how cool is that
I have actually never been much of a fan of NI amino. Don't like tapit's over a route of ground and he always seems to hang, never going by the horses. If he proves me wrong then he does, but the longshot i like is Palace Malice.
Andy, he hasn't led in any one of his races this year. Sat just off the pace in all of them, he actually might have sat the farthest he's ever had in the FL Derby. Again, i emphisize this horse is used to racing, and came into this race off the longest freshening he's ever had, meaning he was probably rusty. He's put on weight since the race, so i have heard, is bouncing over the track, and shook off the rust in his last start. He won't be on the lead, will probably sit just off of Goldencents, Oxbow and Falling Sky. He is a second wave horse, and it's normally those horses or ones in the third group that do the best in the Derby.
Thought the turns at Gulfstream were pretty tight too. He handled 9f quite well there. Think as long as he's ridden correctly then he has a good shot against anyone. Nobody thought he could get past AK, whom was thought to be the fleeter footed.
He has never brought a group this strong. He's had a few nice horses, but recently, his best shots have been taken out due to injury. This year, he doesn't have a barn full of sprinters. They are legit horses and should make an impact if they are lucky enough to get clear trips.
Rafirox, actually V has seen better tha 46 and 1.11. His maiden and allowance wins, where he was right up on the half in 45 in change and a 1.09 and change three quarters. He moved to slower tracks and saw slower times. In the Wood he did not set the pace, easily could have with the flyer he caught from the gate, but was reined in behind the pacesetter for the first half mile, until asked very suddenly to pick it up. He does lack seasoning, which could explain why he tends to wait on other horses, he's used to crusing in the strech. Thanks to the Wood, he probably won't do that. Also, four races is not as big a deal as it sounds. IHA, last year's winner had only four races before he ran in the Derby. Barbaro, only had five. Big Brown had three. Animal Kingdom 4. Having that foundation hasn't really been as needed in recent years, as it used to be.
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