perimeters and ajmindiola - unlike you two amateur handicappers, i actually use facts to back up my opinions. the key fact that you Z-lovers are ignoring is that in 2009 the Classic was run on a synthetic surface. Z is a synthetic track specialist and the majority of her rivals were turf or dirt specialists with little success or liking for synthetics. in 2009 leading to the Classic, her opponents had won a total of 18 graded stakes races, but only 2 of these were on synthetics (1 by Richard's Kid and 1 by Einstein). basically, on her home track she beat a bunch of turf and dirt specialists, some of whom were racing on synthetic for the 1st time. the grand total record of her 11 competitors on graded stakes races on synthetic was 11 races (2 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds). for 2010, i analyzed the 10 probable Classic entries (besides Z) and added Fly Down to make a total of 11 competitors who will challenge Z this year. in total, these 11 horses have won 21 graded stakes races. fully 16 of these victories have been on dirt, which is the same surface as this year's Classic. the grand total record of her 11 competitors on graded stakes races on dirt is 30 races (14 wins, 8 seconds, 4 thirds). bottom line is that last year Z faced a field which was very weak on synthetic surfaces; in fact she had far more graded stakes victories on synthetic than the rest of the field combined. this year, she faces a strong field of proven grade I winners on dirt; who have 14 times more graded stakes victories on dirt than her. after her leisurely walks in the park this year and in last year's Classic when she beat weak fields, she is about to enter a slaughterhouse which is going to chew her up and spit her out like hamburger. she, her connections, and her rabid fans won't know what hit her. me and everyone who actually spent time studying last year's field versus this year's field are going to make a killing betting exotics without Z because all the lemmings are going to drive her odds down to ridiculous levels. they're going to witness history all right - the worst ever finish by a prohibitive favourite in the Classic.