Pa Derby Track 09/24/16
I like #7 Gun Runner he is the best horse but hasn’t learned to change leads (go to fresh legs in stretch). If he does he will win going away.
There will be a lot of early speed in this race.
In the last 10 years only 3 horses have won with Post Positions over#5 and they were two 7s and an 8.
The reason no outside post has won is because the distance from the starting gate to the first turn is only 330 feet (1/2 Furlong). The chance of number 12 Hit it once More (Good pick) are slim. Last year Mr Z went from the 10 Post Position to the lead on the first turn, but tired in the stretch.
I am looking at #4 connect.
With the thunder storms predicted all day The Haskell will be interesting with the addition of Exaggerator (Mud Runner) against Gun Runner and Nyquist. Monmouth is known for its fast track and short stretch (990 feet).Mud Runner will have to stay close to the leaders and make his famous stretch run to catch Gun Runner and Nyquist. It will be Gun Runner and Mud Runner at the wire
I always liked Gun Runner first for his breeding, Candy Ride, Quiet Giant (Giant Causeway) and the Fappiano line in both the Sire and Dam sides. He had trouble changing leads in the past, but in the Matt Winn he broke the track record for that race. The Haskell will be a great race now that Exaggerator (Mud Runner) is entered and thunder storm are predicted all day Sunday. Go Gun Runner
I I agree with you all on Candy Ride, but you have to look further back in his Sire line, he has Cryptoclearance and Fappiano. In his Dam he has Giants Causeway, by Storm Cat, and also Quiet American by again Fappiano (The Sire of Sires). His problem in
Gunner Runner is the best three year old today. His problem in the past was he had problems changing leads. Nyquist is unbelievable and questionable at the same time. Why he didn't run in the Belmont? Was it the NYRA?
Why is nobody interested in the Matt Wynn,with Gun Runner
The sudden odds change at the Preakness when someone placed 80,000.00 on Stradivari, reminds me back when the great Kelso ran, a man with a Black Bag would always bet large a sum of money on Kelso just before the race went off. Is he back??
The sudden odds change at the Preakness when someone placed 80, 00 on Stradivari, reminds me back when the great Kelso ran, a man with a Black Bag would bet large a sum of money on Kelso just before the race went off. Is he back??
A GREAT RACE BY GUN RUNNER. HE DID EVERYTHING, BUT CHANGE LEADS.I AM STICKING WITH HIM. AFTER ALL HE WAS THE YOUNGEST HORSE IN THE RACE. He will learn.
Scott You made me a fan. I too Handicap using blood lines. I also pay attention to Date of Birth of a three year old. Two year olds run on stamina and inexperience, (Change Leads etc) until they mature, I also have been a fan of the Fappiano line that in last year produced American Pharoah. This year there are 12 Fappiano lines in the 20 hoses listed for the Derby. Outlook has the same Fappiano line as American Pharoah (with Empire Maker).
I have picked these (Fappiano) horses in the prep races, and I have had a good year so far. I look at stats but in this case (The Derby) all the horses but one has run one race at a 1 1/8. You cannot come up with a good analysis. As I wrote above there are two year olds bumping and unable to go two turns, which makes the Derby with 20 young hoses a challenge to handicap. Gun Runner has a Fappiano line in both his sire and dam side.
I like Gun Runner, Shagaf and Danzing Candy. Go Fapp
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