It wouldnt be crazy if Unvle Mo sired classic runners, given the stamina he should have inherited from his dam. Nyquist's dam looks pretty speedy, hjowever. On the plus side, Nyquist has a class advantage over most of the field and s pace advantage in this years Derby. In other words he will not be hassled in his preferred running style and the pace will probably be pretty slow. Its very likely he will be clear as the field turns for home.
Has a foreign horse ever finished at the back of the pack? Lani would have to run very poorly for that to happen.
Thanks for that great explanation of how breeding schedules revolve around the mare. I definitely learned a lot. Thanks for clearing up my confusion. Good luck with your pedigree-powered handicapping!
It would be interesting to see that study. I was always under the impression that breeders aimed for "Mid February" foal dates so that any early arrivals would be born in the appropriate year. Of course a stallion can only cover so many mares a day, so there will be variance in the foaling dates for the offspring of the top stallions.
If the sire isn't really in demand, but the foaling date is April or May, that would indicate to me that the person in charge of the mating was not thinking about producing a Kentucky Derby horse.
It has to be an advantage to be born early in the year. The colts are still developing by the time the Kenntucky Derby rolls around. However that advantage can be turned on its head by trainers and owners who see the have a "maturity advantage" early on and push their colt to chase money and victories before the colt is fully developed.
War Emblem ran 6th by 9 3/4 in the Risen Star in 2002, then won the Derby a couple races later.
Real Quiet ran 8th by 22 lengths in the Golden Date Derby and won the Derby 3 races later in 1998.
Charismatic ran 5th (last) by 13 1/2 in the Santa Catalina, then won the Derby 6 starts later (7 races at age 3 prior to Kentucky Derby) in 1999.
Afleet Alex ran 6th by 12 1/2 in the Rebel in 2004, then ran 3rd as the favorite to Giacomo.
So if the general thought is that a bad race at 3 is historically a bad sign, I would agree, but it isn't an automatic throw-out. In the last 13 years it has been a strong indicator of who won't WIN the race.
Ice Box ran 2nd in 2010 after running 5th by 12 in the Fountain Of Youth.
Commanding Curve ran 2nd in 2014 after running 6th by 8 1/4 in the Risen Star.
Bluegrass Cat ran 2nd in 2006 after running 4th by 21 in the Blue Grass.
There are plenty of Derby winners who people thought "were not good enough." Brody's Cause is a Grade 1 winner at 2 and a Grade 1 winner at three. That pretty much defines him as good enough.
Nyquist is going to drift out in mid-stretch and foul him?
I'm worried that Suddenbreakingnews won't get enough points to make the Kentucky Derby. If he does make the Derby field, of course he's a threat to win. He will get better with distance, many of the others will collapse.
Would be nice if Suddenbreakingnews would run 2nd to Cupid. Then they both make the Derby and I get to bet against Cupid and cash on Suddenbreakingnews!
As somebody who keyed this horse in some Derby Futures bets (pool 2) I have to say his effort in the Tampa Derby makes it very difficult to see him as a contender for the Kentucky Derby. A 2nd or 3rd place finish would have been fine. Getting stomped and not firing at all is bad when you only have one more prep.
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