Just hope it's not the boo fest it was for Big Brown. Because Dutrow was the trainer, many were pleased when he came in last. O'Neill is a notch above Dutrow, although with all the breakdowns of his horses and all the Milkshake accusations, there will be at least a few rooting against him. As for the horse, only Dullahan should stand in his way, unless Mark Valeski can go that far.
This is the most excited I have been since 2007 for sure. There are many legit G1 type horses in this field, and very few horses that you can actually say have no legit shot at wining the Derby. I have gotten so use to the 3yo fillies being the much better crop, this year is the complete opposite. Nice piece to get me more pumped up and wishing that 2 weeks flies by.
I'm not big into race times, but lets face it. You don't see times for a 1m 1/8 at OP like Bode did that often. For a 3yo to do that at OP is very impressive. It was visually impressive. He easily beat his stablemate, who sure was fond of the OP surface coming in.
Did Hansen disgrace himself? Not at all, he ran a good 2nd. But is he where most thought he would be at this point? Probably not. After his win in the BC Juvi last year, he was certainly the horse that most people thought would be the top 3 yo in 2012. That hasn’t happened. He has lost 2 of 3 this year, and while his record is still pretty good, it is fair to wonder if other 2 yos have developed more over the winter. Add that to the fact that he is always forwardly place, which is not where you want to be in the Derby as closers almost always take the top 3 spots, and there is plenty of reason to think Hansen will not hit the board in the Derby. In fact, in the last 7 running's, only 1 horse, Hard Spun, has come in the money when being in the top 3 at the 6f marker. Doesn’t look good for Hansen.
She has ZERO chance to beat Union Rags or Hansen. Oaks without question.
On paper, he should beat this field easily. I doubt anyone else in here will be in the starting gate Derby Day. That being said, the built in excuse is there as it should be a sloppy track again. Do we know what happened for sure last time? Was it the pace, the track condition, or a combination of both? Can't give a positive answer on that. Let's just hope he wins this race and looks good doing it, or there will be many more qustions than answer.
Discreet Cat is moving quickly up the sire ladder, but he does have his compitition. As you mentioned, Bernardini is still hot. While Alpha won yesterday, Casual Trick may be the best of them all over time. And then there is the late Indian Charlie, who this year could also have 2 horses in the starting gate for the KY Derby in Ever So Lucky and Souper Speedy. Right now, it's a 3 way photo finish to the wire as to who is the best 3yo male sire.
This is the same reason some horses don't go to the Breeders Cup that should. Yeah, it would be nice to win, but the risk/reward factor will almost never favor the owner. As an owner, one thing I have wanted to see changed for some time is purse distribution. If the bulk of the money goes to the winner, how is anyone except the winner supposed to make a buck? It should be a uniform 50% of the purse money goes to the winner, 25% goes to the 2nd place horse, 12% to the show horse and so on. The winner of any race, I don't care if it's a MCL or the Kentuck Derby, should never get more than 50% of the purse money.
Secret Circle should win the with ease. He can def go a mile. 1m1 1/4 is another story, but for now he should roll against these.
Wow talk about me wanting to get ready for a new year of racing! That got the juices flowing. Even seeing Reveron win the GP Derby today made me ralize that the KY Derby is only 4 months away and the the 2yo picture is very promising right now. FYI, the Horse of the Year award next year will come down to Awesome feather, HDG, and Royal Delta. Females will dominate the sport more than ever this year.