Tmallios you sound like a bitter old man. You can disagree with someone without calling them a liar. I value Rafirox's posts and appreciate his effort to ignore the venom in yours.
Cairo out of FOY. ""The plans right now are to probably just point for the Florida Derby," trainer Kiaren McLaughlin said of the $1 milion race that is the main prep for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park. "The Holy Bull was a huge effort, and they're not machines. It's hard to run every four weeks and run your best. We'll still look at (the Fountain of Youth), but we might very well skip it." Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83136/florida-derby-likely-next-for-cairo-prince#ixzz2s6qEtqaF
Rafi what has me worried is if Top gives Cairo 15 lengths like he gave Surfing then its probably too much to overcome. That is my only knock with Top and I think it won't be a big concern with the longer stretch of the derby. If I remember correctly you quoted Rosario as saying Top was one of the smartest horses he had been on. That is a great asset for a come behind horse. Surprised to hear it for a horse so lightly raced.
Rafi why so confident? Cairo just crushed some pretty good horses in the Holy Bull. He should go off as the favorite in the fountain of youth imo. Commissioner is also running and I think Top was the better horse in that defeat you have to acknowledge that Commissioner showed some grit in the stretch to pull out that victory. I am expecting a small field which should help Top who will probably be dead last again and navigate around the other horses. I'm content with a 1st or 2nd. Top needs some points and is probably down to just 2 races left to get them.
Looks like Honor Codes bad ankles sets up a Cairo vs Top Billing duel on Feb 22. “I was up at Payson on Tuesday and was very pleased with what I saw from Top Billing,” McGaughey said. “I thought he came out of his last race really well. He went back to the track this morning. I probably would have looked for a different spot with him if Honor Code ran in the Fountain of Youth, but now that would probably be the logical race for him as long as he continues to do well.” Going to be a tough test for Top Billing to get to Cairo at 1 1/16.
Looks like Commissioner is going to get a tough test in the fountain of youth. Cairo and Honor code are both pointing for that race. I'll be rooting for Commissioner. Wynn just came out with new and very stingy future odds. Commissioner is at 28-1. Honor is at 10-1 and Cairo at 12-1. Top Billing was dropped to 14-1.
Rafi if Top can handle the cold then I agree the Gotham sets up well. The Wood falls 5 weeks later and that allows 4 more weeks till the derby. Noble Moon is making plans to run there and he doesn't scare me. I had also made a $60 future bet for a friend on TB. Unfortunately I bet it following my $100 bet which knocked the odds down at LVH from 75 to 50. My friend got upset with the lower odds so I let him off the hook and now have a total of $!60 on Top to win the derby. Not a good sign for Top since the only future horse I've bet that came remotely close was on his daddy Curlin who let me down.
If I was Shug I'd avoid Cairo because TP will need the derby distance to run him down. What Rafi says about the cold probably rules out NY. Be interesting to see a Commissioner rematch. Thanks Rafi for your comments which HI-LITED this horse for me. Mr Speaker losing makes it easier for Shug's scheduling of TB and my quess is also the rising star is next up.
Top Billing was listed at 75-1 at the LVH in Vegas today so I dropped a $100 on what I know is a sucker bet this early. I was hoping to see the horse entered in the Holy Bull instead of an allowance. Thought the last race he did everything you'd want to see in a colt. Came on fast between horses and just came up short. Ran the last 3F under 36 secs so he should be able to handle the derby's distance. He has also shown he can rate and handle the slop.
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