I also believe Materiality is better than Madefromlucky, but I think Madefromlucky is Grade 1 caliber too.
Under the conditions the race was run under, you can't draw that conclusion. It could just as well be that he couldn't handle the footing.
I won't deny he's a very good horse, but I'm not sold on his Belmont chances.
If we can't draw that conclusion with what he's shown so far in the slop, what would we need him to do? Roll in it?
I didn't say it was too bad. The track had surely been sealed, and that's why there was so much water running. I think it was wet-fast, not sloppy. So the track was probably still fast (as evidenced for the quick early fractions). That doesn't flatter the final time. In any case, it's clear that his main competition did not like the track conditions.
AP didn't stumble. He purposely came out in an outward angle. It may look like a stumble, but it wasn't. Firing Line, on the other hand, went down to his knees.
We already knew he loved a wet track.
The Beyer for that race is strictly a guess, and probably generous because it was the Preakness. The weather and track conditions changed dramatically between races. Hard to gauge how much it affected the race time.
That's not a blog. It's Twitter. Some of those tweets are from DRF.
Maybe he was going to bounce, but it was definitely the conditions that did him in. He was out of the race as soon as the gates opened. He stumbled and never gained traction on that surface.
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