@tmallios, the larger demands (flat purchase, percentage, etc.) required by the track, the more tickets and commodities will cost.
HRN Superfecta Contest: $500 bankroll. Biggest profit on bet wins. Must hit superfecta, unless parimutual superfecta is not hit. $1 minimum. Don't post picks here. If interested give me your e-mail, either post below or e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org)
I know this is a political topic, but it may be the most important piece of information uttered in these chat boards. Preach the word about the corrupt AMA. Before we can rectify it, people need to know the massive corruption that is going on.
Watching his Remsen and Risen Star were encouraging to get the distance. Very few horses were closing at Fair Grounds, he was. And, this isn't my betting strategy, just how I currently feel about these horses.
After careful deliberation, here's my present Derby synopsis (subject to change with coming weeks defections and works). California Chrome is a spectacular specimen. Anyone in doubt simply needs to watch his last four races. Anyone calling him a one trick Santa Anita horse should go back and watch his win in the King Glorious at Hollywood, arguably his most visually impressive display. Victor Espinoza and him have teamed up to be a very impressive duo. He works well, runs well, is ratable, and is very deserving of his mantle as favorite. Danza does not merit his “one hit wonder” title. He very likely would have been a Grade 2 winner as a two year old with a little more luck. It should not be ignored that his two biggest races (Saratoga and Oaklawn) have come over surfaces similar to Churchill’s. Wicked Strong is every wise man’s horse, or at least he stood as that in the Wood Memorial. Just ignore his Gulfstream form. He will do his running late, and if the leaders come back to him is a very logical contender for the roses. A style very dangerous for all exotics too. Intense Holiday was taken off of his game when used early in the Louisiana Derby, his game is from off the pace. His troubled closing trip in last year’s Remsen should also not be overlooked. He has endurance, and stands as dangerous with a good ride. Hoppertunity was never going to catch CC in the Santa Anita Derby, but he’ll have plenty of targets to rundown the first Saturday in May and a more desirable scenario in which to preform down the lane. Commanding Curve was the only horse closing in the Louisiana Derby. That deserves some sort of credit. I don’t think he’s your winner, but the success of that style finding its way into exotics is nothing to overlook. Samraat, Wildcat Red, and General A Rod all clump together in my eyes. All have similar styles, two of which obviously were great benefactors of the Gulfstream express. Samraat is a NY-bred with NY connections. Wildcat Red is a FL-bred with FL connections. General A Rod is Kentucky through-and-through and has valuable experience over the Churchill surface. All three are respectable, I’ll call General A Rod most likely to find a place on the board. Medal Count, yes a horse with polytrack form, should not be overlooked. He’s finally developing into the horse Dale Romans thought he had all along. He put himself into this race with his recent form. He does have a dirt win, even if at Ellis Park. His gallop out in the Blue Grass was impressive. And, I honestly see him being effective on over Churchill’s surface. Not to mention, he’s a looker too. I’m not on the Ride on Curlin bandwagon. Three mediocre runs at Churchill is all I need to say. Tapiture wants no part of 10 furlongs, the mile and a sixteenth is his wheelhouse. Vicar’s In Trouble came home slow in a merry-go-round Louisiana Derby. That final furlong will feature his steady retreat through the field. Dance With Fate’s end goal was the Bluegrass. The connections were weary of even running here. Enough said. I’ll assume Bayern doesn’t find his way into the field. I don’t care for any of the other long shots for obvious reasons most will likely be able to pinpoint. California Chrome stands above all others, will need to be dethroned. Intense Holiday, Danza and Wicked Strong are my top picks to attempt to dethrone him. I’ll play Medal Count, Commanding Curve, Hoppertunity and General a Road below those to finish of trifectas and/or superfectas. I’ll end my “diarrhea with a typewriter” there.
How well would this list stand against an international top ten? Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup would remain, but would any others? Dubai World Cup, Arc Day, British Champions Day, Hong Kong's Championships, Epsom Derby, Japan Cup, and the list goes on. I do have a feeling, however, with the new NYRA stakes schedule structure hinted at for this year's Belmont meet that Travers Day is going to be big this year.
crap shoot? hardly. The Dubai World Cup card is more predictable than the Breeders' Cup in my opinion. And, for those that are informed, offers better value opportunity.
Should not be overlooked in his very credible 2nd place run to Just A Way. He now has the second fastest 9 furlongs recorded at Meydan. May have been the winner in literally any other year.
Just A Way is a him, unless both my past performances and form guide are incorrect. But, yes excellent result.
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