UncleMo200

Same with Sherluck in Carry Backs Belmont.

That is a correct assessment: given a slow pace, a front runner can go MUCH FARTHER...Example was Olden Times winning the Capistrano at 1 3/4 on the lead.

His pedigree screams speed. I'm thinking he is going to take after his full sister Zazu and his best distance will be from 7f to 8.5f. Possibly 9f. His pedigree worries me. There's a lot of Mr. Prospector, Raise a Native, and Northern Dancer in there along with Reviewer. I hope he didn't inherit unsound legs

The race was handed to him last time out. He took over slow pace, and kicked on home to win by 6. But one must truly question the class he was facing, and he had no challenge on the lead. That race showed no signs of outrunning his pedigree. One of my favorite three year old colts, but not for the derby. I think 9 furlongs will be the breaking point. 7-8.5 should be his prime distances.

Lets say you are observing someone to play a practical joke. You are going to drop a bucket of water on them. You watch them, from a distance ONE day. From that observation you think you can predict exactly WHERE that person is going to be on any given day at that time? OR, does you sample error or a single obsrvation make the probabilities of your being right miniscule?

With his running style, I'd like to see him try turf

I was about to post the same thing!!! The sire side has speed. War Pass had potential, but never got to grasp it. He won the Juvenile. And came in second in the Wood, I believe. The dam's name is familiar, isn't it? Well, because she won the Alabama Stakes at ten furlongs! His WHOLE dam side is filled with stamina, everywhere you look! A.P Indy (Belmont and Classic winner), Hoist The Flag (Good horse, if not out, could have brought great accomplishments), Seattle Slew (Triple Crown Winner) Secretariat (Triple Crown Winner) Tom Rolfe (50's monster, great source of stamina), Ribot (one of euro's all time best horses), Buckpasser (Great 60's horse, if not injured, maybe even better) Man o' War (Possibly the best of all time), War Admiral (Son of MOW, good runner), Nashrullah (Great Source of stamina), Inbred to Bold RUler (Great source of speed), and Princequillo (X factor trait, could run all day). His dam won the Alabama, at ten furlongs. Great mix in his pedigree, love it.

ONE example is just RIPE for sample error conclusions that are going to be WAY off the mark.

For me the his Withers race is hard for me to comprehend. Was his race a sign that he is traffic prone? Or does it show the ability to get out of it?

I'm going for option 2, for now. I don't want to overthink his last race. He's a decent looking colt. Might be traffic-prone though, I try to stay away from those derby day.

OR, I am working our how to defend you best scorer on a hihg scool bseltball team. I watch a single game, and KNOW what to do? Not even close to predictablity on such a limited observation.

I love the Dude, partially cause I also love "The Big Lebowski." BUT, here's my concern when I see most California stakes races on HRTV. It's a 4,5 or maybe 6 horse field with a 1/5 favorite, second best around 9/2, and the rest at double digit odds. I get it that the Dullahan defeat was at Del-Mar and Dude was incredibly game, but I'm also of the thought that several from the east would take him. I live in Arkansas and have no bias towards either coast, and would much rather visit The Great Race Place or Del-Mar than anywhere else (other than Oaklawn).

No 1 can? I have a list of at least 7 or 8 horses who can and have 'stopped' the dude!

Would like to see MMM and/or Fort Larned come out w/Ron The Greek. Make it a good SA H'cap.

9f at SA, Dude.

The Big Cap winner will be from the east again. There is not Good handicap horse out west that can go 10f and beat the top Eastern Handicap horses IMO.

Drosselmeyer, Dullahan, Acclamation, Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man.......

*one good

for the last 10-12 years, California racing, where I was first introduced to the game, is a big YAWN

Too late, already won