We do not factor ground loss into our speed figures, so that could be part of the discrepancy. Also, California Chrome earned a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last race (the California Cup Derby)
Great point! We'll pull that now and will update this blog post later.
Appreciate it, Brian. Thank you.
tmallios1, Hollendorfer trained the post time favorite and eventual 2nd place finisher in Shared Belief's debut race at Golden Gate. Shared Belief blew him away with disdainful ease in the stretch and an offer was made to buy the gelding when it was learned he was available for sale. No matter what happens going forward, it's been a brilliant purchase, that's for sure. I wish Hollendorfer and his team luck. I was a huge fan of Candy Ride as a horse. He was sensational on turf in South America. Dominated Medaglia D' Oro in the Pacific Classic in a dirt race that got a huge figure on everyone's numbers. Did it all for Ron McAnally, who is pretty squeaky clean himself. Candy Ride was an impressive work horse as well. Worked a mile in 1:35 2/5 at Del Mar. Shame he got hurt. He had a world of talent.
Icyhotboo, pace and weight carried are factored into the speed ratings. Troubled trips aren't, because it is way too subjective. Ground loss isn't, at the moment, either. The handicapper can always subtract points for ground saving trips and add points for wide trips, if they wish to. For a general overview of our speed figures, here is a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1iUjAxLmeY
If you look at a result chart of the Nashua, the horses who raced 1st, 2nd, and 3rd early on, went on to finish 10th beaten 16 lengths as the post time favorite, 11th beaten 38.5 lengths, and 12th beaten 51 lengths...so, the result chart seems to agree with our pace algorithim. Generally, in slow paced races, the three pace setters all don't stop to a walk. Meanwhile, the horses who raced 10th, 11th, and 12th early on finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th at odds of 13/1, 16/1, and 9/2. All of them supposedly disadvantaged by a pace the computers say was actually pretty fast. That was a funny day, in the opener, a 6 furlong race, the winner rallied wide behind a 48 flat half mile. Basically, We disagree on the pace of the Nashua, and you agree with my boss on ground loss. We can leave it at that, Amigo. It was nice chatting with you, and hopefully we can do this more in future blog posts.
Sheet style figures have ground loss baked into them, but they don't take pace into account. For instance, Orb was 3 wide on the first turn and 5 wide on the second turn in the Kentucky Derby. Oxbow broke from the rail and saved ground throughout in the Derby. Orb ended up defeating Oxbow by a mere 10 lengths, but with ground loss factored in, he earned a sheet style figure 16 lengths faster than Oxbow. Taking pace, but not ground loss into account, Oxbow's figure is much closer to Orb than the 10 length margin of defeat suggests because Oxbow raced close--up chasing the supersonic pace set by Palice Malice. I would recommend Trakus for ground loss data, but there are still a lot of tracks who don't have it yet. I know my boss at TimeformUS is, like you, a fan of incorporating ground loss into a speed figure. "It has some flaws, but overall it is a net gain and something we might be considering in the future." If I'm betting 20 tracks, I'd much rather have pace adjusted figures than ground loss adjusted figures, maybe we'll have both one day soon, but that's just my opinion. - Doug
tmallios1, Noble Moon ran a 94 speed figure in the Nashua. Our speed figures do not take into acoount ground loss on the turns. The general rule of thumb is that racing one path wider on turn = 1 length, however, you have your dead rails where racing wide is actually an avantage. Best to let the player determine watch a replay and determine the importantance of variables like ground loss, for themselves. In my personal opinion, even with trip and gate trouble factored in, Cario Prince raced much closer to a very legit early pace and I prefer him over Noble Moon in the Remsen. Time will tell which of us is proven correct, feel free to remind me if I'm wrong. -Doug
Mike in SB, you make reasonable points about race day medications like lasix being contributing factors, however, it is borderline lunacy to suggest that the modern thoroughbred is as hardy as past generations. Selective breeding focusing on speed and precocity is probably the greatest factor. Here is the race record of a popular thoroughbred from the late 1800's who made 341 starts between the ages of 4 through age 9. https://a1-images.myspacecdn.com/images03/11/d716d82bbb3d4036bb9293a812f6e3d8/full.jpg
Rosario came pretty close to pulling a Paco Lopez in 2008. He won 193 races and finsihed the year with his career best ROI of $2.08 -- a 4% profit on the betting dollar. In 2009, he won 284 races and had an ROI of 1.90 -- however, Rosario has been a victim of his own success. The last 3 years, his ROI is $1.65, $1.68, and $1.67
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