I like Mark Valeski...he's a fighter and wants to win. His sire Proud Citizen was 2nd in his Derby try, and his mother won 3 grade 1 races and had 2 and 3rd places in some other top races. So, he should be able to get the distance, and Larry Jones always has them ready
Good race. However, his stablemate, Believe You Can, a 3-yr-old filly who won the Silver Bullet Day Stakes earlier in the day, ran faster for the identical distance and won by 2 lengths. She also lead all the way, running the first quarter in 23 and change.
Havre will sit just off the pace or be comfortable setting the pace if necessary. She will make her move coming off the final turn and pull away impressively to win. It won't be close.
Can't get 1-1/4 mile? That's what they said about his grandpa Holy Bull when he was entered in the Travers. He won it. And, everone doubted Secretariat's stamina. He gallops 2 miles daily and seems to never get tired after his workouts. With a paitnet ride, I think he can win the Derby. He'll certainly try hard...that's for sure.
A sentimental pick: Mucho Macho Man. He's raced five times as a 2-yr-old and three times as a 3-yr-old. And he has won or placed in 7 of his 8 races. His last five races have been stakes, including two 1-1/8 miles, one 1-1/16 and two 1 mile races; and he broke his maiden at the 1-70 distance. To quote the Bloodhorse: “He's been training gang-busters.” His trainer says he's never tired after his daily 2-mile gallops and workouts. This reminds me of Afleet Alec's energy level and daily long gallops.
Great story. Makes me hope even more that he wins the Derby.