What we do know is he's never been trapped on the rail, never had a terrible trip, and never had mud or dirt in his face most of a race. He's always had a clean and traffic free trip and he's very inexperienced. Also the run to the turn means he has almost no room to secure a position if he breaks even half a second slow. Neolithic and noble bird will bury him and Chrome or prayer for relief will def be coming over to box him in. This is a 12 million dollar race. Expect everyone to be extremely aggressive for position
It was hear say from An attendee at the draw said off record
worst post arrogate could have gotten. Great post for chrome
Have a little faith
Do not always take the TVG or NBC Racing commentators words for gold. These are the same people that gave arrogate little to no chance in the breeders cup classic, thought Chrome couldn't win the pacific classic, and picked against American pharaoh in every single triple crown race
Trust me. If Chrome loses it will not be because of his post position. It will be because he is just not as good as arrogate
That's what I said
Saw it on Facebook page - let me try to find it
Different track, different gate positioning, different distance, different field, different post draw. Watch several races at gulf stream and you will realize how short the run to the turn is. Neolithic and noble bird are right to his outside and they are both speed horses who want the lead. Neolithic is a very fast breaker with a quick turn of foot- I can almost guarantee he will be in front of arrogate along with noble bird very quickly and prayer for relief will probably trap arrogate in the rail for most of the race. Baffert is probably freaking out right now because either his horse is going to be trapped on the rail or going to have to go extreme wide to run down the stretch which is very hard to do at Gulf Stream. Or worst case scenario is a horse bumps arrogate slams into him or cuts him off causing him to check like shared belief in the 2014 classic which could cost him the entire race. If that happens and he still wins this- he will be a super horse for sure.
And you know you cannot compare the travers to the Pegasus. First of all arrogate had his own stablemate to his outside so of course that horse was not going to cause trouble for him. Just as Dortmund didn't for American pharaoh in his Preakness. But arrogate will have a target on his back in this race and no horse is going to want to let him out from the rail and especially not secure an easy lead. Second- Look at how Saratoga sets up the starting gate- the one hole is almost five wide into the track giving the one hole plenty of room to maneuver. And the run to the first turn might as well be a leisurely jog as it's so long. Plus that was 10f. Horses are not sprinting to get into position like they will be in a 12 million dollar 9f race with that short run to the turn. The break and first jumps are going to make or break is race in my opinion
Because gulfstream has such a short run to the first turn and with the 12 million dollars everyone Will be scrambling for position. Plus with the target on his back everyone will be doing their best To trap him on the rail. He has never broken like a rocket- he said a mediocre breaker and Neolithic and noble bird are very fast breakers with a lot of speed and will be gunning for the lead. arrogate does not need the lead but if he was on the outside he would have enough time and space to come with his late run but if he's trapped on the rail and unable to swing to the outside to get his run in it Could be too late for him
Did you watch the race? The entire field broke relatively slow and with the starting gate one hole being almost five wide into the track he has plenty of time and space after the break and secured the lead going into the turn. He was never 'trapped' on the rail and had a clean trip the entire race. So again- he has NEVER won a race where he has been trapped on the rail with no running room in the stretch to fly home. I would have felt much more confident with him getting an outside post as he is talented and closes fast enough to over come it. But a bad trip trapped on the rail with no where to go could spell disaster for him
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