i doubt PM goes 10f, JW is a not a Dirt horse neither is Charming Kitten........MyLute isn't good enough, Goldencents could go the distnace with high 47s and high 1:11's (though I also have doubts), and Will Take Charge isn't good enough. Of those 6 only Goldencents can I see winning but I highly doubt that with all the talented closers this year. I don't expect any of these to hit the superfecta but Goldy has a shot for 4th. So many people like PM this year because of one thing and one thing only -- Curlin. Thats good for me as my odds on my horses will continue to rise. good luck all
All this being said, the Derby is the Derby I personally only give a few a shot to win but if the setup is right it can be anyone's race and good luck to everyone no matter who you like.
In thoroughbred racehorses when Sires will have 100s of offsprings and Dams will have maybe 15-20 if they're lucky, the talent acquistion is (roughly) 80% of the dam. That is where the differences are made, that is where horses seperate themselves on the racetrack from a pedigree aspect. Many many many Curlins will hit the track very few Boston Lady's will even race (not that she herself is a jewel). You only need to go a few back and we have Capote (by Seattle Slew) and Raise a Native (by Native Dancer). Along with that we get a combination of Pulpit blood on top (AP Indy - Seattle Slew) along with Mr Prospector and Unbridled (by Fappiano). Your looking at horse with a good mix of stamina and speed throughout both sides of the pedigree along with having a solid kick. NI is a dangerous racehorse. This isn't to say that Palice Malace has a horrid pedigree, but I really don't see how his dam's side even compare's to NI's plus the combo doesn't add up. I'm just saying I wouldn't call PM's pedigree better, it's unlikely that he will be able to produce a kick like NI's despite their racing positions given the pedigree balance. It's also hard to say that Tapit can't breed distance horse's he's only had them on the track for a little over 5 years. I'd say his tend to be more precocious if anything. If we want to talk about humans then yes the father has just as likely a say in your potential as your mother unless he is a polymagmist -- you'll see the differences through the mother. There are reasons (by example) that some horses by Curlin will sell for 50k at sale and other may go as high as 200k (once again a possible future example). Curlin is the same on both sides the differences always come in the female (distaff/maternal) line. It's important not to get too caught up in the Sire himself. Curlin was a great horse, he will have many many many offspring. He will be lucky if he gets 1 or 2 that come to 1/2 of what he was BUT maybe with a combination of s strong female side he can produce a foal of worth (not that Palace Malice isn't but his dam's side isn't magnificent).
I'd say that ML is about right. The people will bet down hard on Revolutionary with Borel up, he'll likely go off as post time favorite or no less than second choice. I can't see Rev going off as anything less than second choice at post. Verrazano is biggest ML fav.TOSS in recent memory. I would be totally blindsided if he finished 6th or better.
Governor Charlie has been and will remain my top horse so long as he stays sound. I am afraid that the hoof issue may be bigger than feared because he hasn't had a work in so long and by many accounts didn't look smooth in his last gallop. That being said Baffert is a Derby genius, and he did wonder's with his sire (best training job in BC history bar-none). Governor Charlier has everything one wants in a Derby horse, he only continues to progress in his races while Verrazano looked done in the Wood after a weak pace and NI easily passed him just after the wire. I give Verrazano little to no chance, Charlie has been my #1 horse the whole way through (followed by Rev., NI, and Orb). It's just a question if he'll be sound and ready by Derby day given that he is behind schedule.
NI is a better horse. NI has better breeding (especially on dam's side -- 80% of talent in thoroughbred offspring). NI has raced better horses and finished up his races better. The only thing PM really has going for him is he'll be better odds.....and those don't mean anything when he'll finish out of the money. Wood>Bluegrass in 2013, and NI ran better than PM in their final preps. To me if it's soley these two NI>PM......not to say I haven't been wrong before, but I highly doubt it in this scenario
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