As a teenage blogger and handicapper myself it's great to hear about more young people getting interested in the sport we all love. Once again another great interview of someone who will eventually be part of the future of horse racing.
This year's Breeders' Cup could be one of the best in ages. Really like Ivan Fallunovalot in the BC Sprint and Swipe in the BC Juvenile.
Get all of my analysis on the Breeders' Cup on my blog at: horseracingstation.wordpress.com.
Drew the 8 post in Saturday's Sanford Stakes. Really like this spot for him in the 11 horse field. Facing off against Paynes Prairie once again, as well as Bashford Manor winner He's Comin In Hot. Another horse to watch in that race is John Q Public for D. Wayne Lukas. He is an Ellis Park shipper who won his maiden while in trouble. Very nice race for this son of Colonel John and expect him to make it 3 for 3 Saturday.
I would love to see a Triple Crown, but as I said before the Derby, Mubtaahij can win the Preakness and the Belmont, the challenge is the Derby. He didn't run in the Preakness but I still love him in the Belmont. I think it will be tough to beat American Pharoah, but Mubtaahij will improve as the races get longer. I like him here.
Love Love Love this horse! Hate to make a Derby 2016 pick this early, but I am very impressed with this horse and am all in right now on him. Also, he is a descendant of Godolphin Arabian, a sire line that hasn't won the Derby since War Admiral. Maybe he can end the drought.
The top three finishers in the Derby all received the top 3 figures of the field in their last race. While my speed figures may have been flawed, they worked better than anyone could have expected.
2- Firing Line
3- American Pharoah
That is not what PED means. PEDs are used to improve performance. PEDs do not give anyone the ability to do something, just improve upon it. A person using PEDs who never played baseball before won't automatically gain the ability to hit home runs. It is the same thing in horse racing. Lasix does not (at least scientifically) make a horse automatically run better. Some horses do better on Lasix, that is true, but not all horses will run better with Lasix. Saying Lasix is a PED is completely false.
Lasix has long been believed to be a PED, to the point that the best trainer in the world, Aiden O'Brien, has sent many of his horses to the States and raced them on Lasix (not all, but some, even if they aren't bleeders, just to avoid any disadvatage he may have for not using Lasix). However, there is no science that points to them being PEDs. Mike de Kock is making a smart move on letting Mubtaahij run without Lasix. If he isn't bleeding, then he doesn't need it. Lasix should be used against bleeding, not just to satisfy a norm. US trainers just seem to not understand the point of medications. It is like giving a person Advil every time they run so that they don't get a headache, even though they might not get a headache to start. Good move by Mubtaahij's connections. He is a spectacular horse and while everyone is worried that he doesn't change leads, that isn't something that is cared about in the international community... I'm not worried. He is not only my Derby pick, but also my Triple Crown pick.
I am not trying to make these the end all be all stat for handicapping. There is not one handicapping tool that will always work (if there was, that would be the only one anyone would use). Also, these are still in development. As I get more data, I may separate them down by track, taking just Santa Anita into consideration for Santa Anita races, just Gulfstream Park for GP races, etc. These are just beginning. I've read a lot from Andy Beyer and see his methodology. I don't discount how a horse runs throughout a race. This isn't supposed to be a replacement, but rather a supplement. I still watch the full race, analyze the whole race, and analyze how a horse ran. I don't think the finish is everything. I understand that Santa Anita is fast and Sunland Park times are inflated due to the wind that goes down the stretch. This is still a work in progress. I don't have enough data to make perfect speed figures. These are far from perfect. This is just a beginning. I also am really glad that you all commented because one of the reasons I wanted to get these out there are in order to get advice on how to improve them. I am just one person. I don't have a team of people behind me nor am I going to be at every race. I use Equibase to get my times and race information. There is a lot more to be taken into consideration in making these speed figures. These will take years of work to get even close to being of good quality. However, this is a start. I'm young and in college. I don't have the experience of many handicappers and figure makers. I don't have the time that they have to analyze every part of a race. But I do what I can. In the future, I may break them down by call, separating them even more. Thank you for your advice.
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other passionate horse racing fans!