JJFlash, The favorites are called favorites because they have the best chance to win the race. They win 39% and are in the money 71%. If I felt that one of the long shots had a better chance to win, then I would say so. Good luck with your bet. I plan to do a few key box supers..
Thanks Jonathan. Sweet Reason did run fourth.
Entered in S.A. Juvenile Stakes. He's a half to Canadian Champion 2YO fillies - Biofuel & Tu Endie Wei.
Cairo Prince is just a short nose shy of being a winner at 1 1/8 miles. He should have no difficulty with the distance. The issue here is the big layoff and if he's primed for a top effort, although, he could be talented enough that a second-best effort will get him there. Hard to gauge a 3YO off of 2YO form when their sole 3YO race was against lesser rivals.
LOL Dray Nay. Hope you don't mind if I use your comment for another analysis. That's a good one!
I mentioned above that he doesn't need to win in order to get into the Derby. I used that angle in selecting General A Rod over Cairo Prince in my selections. Thanks for the compliments. We hope you enjoy reading our analysis as much as we do creating them!
Lisa, the horses in the first two generations have received specific genetics from their ancestors. Going back 3 or more generations has no bearing on what a horse can or can't do on the track, because those horses have already passed along their attributes. I leaned this when I first started studying pedigree theory back in the 1970's. Now, your statement (minus the buffoon part) “Dosage is NOT all about the prediction of racing outcomes you buffoon. It takes the best of the best sires and categorizes the distances that they excelled in. It then reads right to left the speed to stamina that the colt MAY have inherited. Period.” is what I’ve been saying all along. Dosage shouldn’t be used for handicapping. Yet, in your previous comments, you give examples on how it is used for handicapping and successful out comes. Which is it? Dosage & Reines figures should be used for handicapping….or not? BTW, prediction of racing outcomes is called handicapping.
Take a look at the pedigree of Uncle Mo. DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50, Conduit Mare Profile = 8-3-5-8-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-16-19. He’s by Indian Charlie out of an Arch mare. Now, we know that Arch is a grand-son of the Classic chef, Roberto. Using Dosage AND Reines theory, as Lisa insists, would have us believe that Uncle Mo should handle 10F, right? The closest Chef in his pedigree is 3 generations back. Uncle Mo has NO Reine de course in his pedigree in the first 4 generations. If we cheat and add in the fifth gen, he has 2. Applying the numbers from Dosage and Reines indicates that Uncle Mo SHOULD have the chops to get classic distances….except that…he didn’t. Not quite an exact science. A theory based upon mathematical methods either works in every instance, or it is faulty. That’s the danger of trying to apply breeding tools to handicapping living animals.
Adding in the Reines makes sense, if one is to ascribe to the Chefs/Reines theroy for handicpping. However, the same issue arises if there are no reines in the first 2 or 3 generations of a pedigree. Do we just ignore the dams who aren't Reines? Pedigree Handicapping relies on the influences of the sire, dam, damsire and how the sibings fared on the track. Pedigree for breeding is an entirely diffferent animal. Dosaage and Reines can indeed come in handy for breeding; however, as a tool for pedigree handcapping, using dosage/Reines is sketchy, at best.
Lisa, The Reines are NOT included in the Dosage Theory, and thus, were not part of my article. I spoke of one subject, that was dosage. Dr. Romans has no information on his website about the reines on his website, Your heated reply is amusing, as it goes into great detail about the reines, but really, has nothing to do with my article. Sorry you felt that I was writing using scarsam, as my aim ws for humor. Your reply however...
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