Big Brown worked on the turf at Belmont for his TC shot. Even then it tells one something isn't right. This horse hasn't even touched down at Belmont. sumtin aint rite!!!
Nice article! If he gets beat by any horse other than Materiality I would be greatly surprised. AP is a very unusual horse in that he rates, has a nice turn of foot, and seems to have remarkable recuperative ability judging by his performances so far. Especially the KD where he raced evenly with both Dortmund and Firing Line, all were used hard, and when they came back in the Preakness he wins easy and only Dortmund managed to hold fourth.
Materiality is green, but it's his fifth race in a normal sized field and he does have speed. He also seems to like the track judging by his 5f work at Belmont in 1:00.0 AP doesn't have a work over the track yet???
I believe Buckpasser answered the question accurately with the explanation of Discovery winning in 1935. It's not only possible, it's happened.
CD is a track some horses just can't adapt to. I wondered why for a long time then researched it. It's the only dirt track with a clay base in N/A. When wet it usually plays very fast, dry very slow. Not hard to manipulate the speed on a nice day here. Just let the water trucks out or not. I'm not saying they do, but I have been at other tracks where the trucks are out after every race, and at some they're needed elsewhere at as smoke was seen down the road. Life is the real game.
Going by speed and class of comparative horses Dubai seemed to play more like GP which this year was heavy as opposed to prior years. Tamarkuz, a son of Speightstown who has seen his progeny favor Belmont should contend. Personally with the news that Palace Malice is out leaves Tonalist the horse to beat. Since he'll be short priced in this field a straight tri n super should be good plays as they can be narrowed down and played as a win bet straight. The super not so much, but the tri yes. In the supers I use the all button for 4th a lot. Just to many photo losses not to. GL if you play. As for Mubtaahij I don't think he'll contend at the distance as he comes up short on the dam side. Then again I don't see this race being as strong as others do, but AP is going to need a lot of things not go his way to lose here. It could happen, but as you stated earlier in another comment he's about dispatched the 3yo crop. Again tri's in multiples of multiples, and some supers. The only horse I ever thought had a chance to beat AP was Materiality in the KD if he got a clean start and good trip. I will use him again 1 n 2 spots.
"Horses are prey animals they tend to hide any injuries or ailments so as not to appear weak and vulnerable to predators so it makes it difficult to detect when there is a problem." nice insight as opposed to those who think they're machines and should perform 100% every time out.
$1.00 Trifecta 9/2/1 $275.10 $0.10 Superfecta 9/2/1/3 $206.24 X 4 = $824.96 for 40 cent superNice play! The #9 really looked sharp visually.
Superfecta 6, 9, 10, WT, 6, 9, 10, WT, 3, 4, 6, 10, WT, 3, 4, 6, 10
In every sport in every country of the world the fan base is a major consideration, whether the owner be an individual, corporation, or nation, with the exception being horse racing. Why is that?
I deleted that comment because we all have our reasons for doing things. Just because it's unknown to someone doesn't make it less important to the commenter. As a big fan of AP I would love to see him win the TC, and he should, but anything can happen in a race as we all know. I'll have some tickets without him, and also in other spots, but if I do bet the race solid after handicapping it, AP, just on my definition of what class is should be on top. I handicap using anything that will help me cash, but when all is said and done class trumps any of the other tools I use to get there. This is very mature horse both mentally and physically who runs very relaxed, it will be hard to beat him IMO. The kicker in this race is that the entries are almost all legitimate for the most part to hit the board. Materiality and Frosted are of interest to me as I believe they can contend. Interesting that 8 of the 11 probable starters are from the RAISE A NATIVE Sire Line which has been a very strong presence in all the TC races.
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