Justice's book is fascinating. While I don't agree with all of his mathematical assumptions, he is painstakingly researched. When comparing times, he takes into account the smallest of details, even how much the horses shoes would way.
I also find it interesting that the Belmont track secretariat ran the Belmont on was running slow
In my hurry to post the comment before I had to leave, I used the wrong word. By juiced, I meant that the track was very fast that day. Najran was not a "great" horse, but yet he ran faster miles than plenty of great horses. There is many circumstances that led to his time but a very fast track is a factor to his lightning fast time
Earlier, I was also giving you the benefit of the doubt with the "slower" tracks. But did you know that MOW made 13 of 21 starts at Saratoga and Belmont? Back then, they were nicknamed the "rubber tracks" because they were so fast. MOW made his debut right after both tracks had made renovations to make them faster. Several records fell after the renovations. Statistics show that times didn't get faster as the years go by and supposedly the tracks got "faster". But times got faster the larger the foal crop. Because the more horses born, the more chance for "greatness" or "talent", so horses were pushed more giving faster times. More evidence that MOW faced inferior competition and was genetically ahead of his time. That is why his record is better than Secretariat.
And more evidence that weight doesn't make a difference. Over a 40 year period in the JCGC, the more weight the winner carried the faster the time and the less weight they carried the slower the time.
Kinscem, the Hungarian undefeated filly who won all 54 of her starts carried 168 lbs to victory. So a healthy, large stallion such as MOW should definitely be able to shoulder 138 lbs without complaint.
To a certain extent, weight helps a horse build momentum. 168 lbs is above that limit but 138 lbs should not be considering Dr. Fager got faster the more weight put on him and he carried up to 139 lbs and carried above 130 lbs multiple times
Like to Allen!!!
Man o War carried 20 lbs more than Secretariat. That is the equivalent of me running with 2.24 more lbs than my competitor's, next to nothing. And your assessment that weight slows all horses down is wrong. Dr. Fager actually ran faster the more weight that was put on his back, most of his records were set when he had 130+
Yes, sSecretariat was quite a freak considering his father. But an expert pedigree abalysist can see he was bred for distance through and through considering his grandfather was Princequillo. His 20+ lbs heart helped as well
You mention the losses of Kelso and Forego as your point that weight makes a difference. But those were the 2 horses that I mentioned would have been affected by weight. Kelso was small and Forego had horrible ankles.
"And the Saratoga tiring track over a mile and a quarter does not set up well for a speed horse" And the Churchill downs surface wouldn't suite a Cal bred bred for 1 1/8, but we all know who won the Kentucky Derby. Let's see if another California based "sprinter" can win a Derby, even if it's the Midsummer Derby.
He was running by himself. His jockey said he was a horse with several gears. And he said Native Dancer had one gear reserved for race day when he really needed it. Eric Guerin described it as him finding more, reaching out with longer strides. He was notoriously lazy, running alone or not running in a race ment he would not be fully extended. I would put his stride closer to 30 feet
Obviously not when it comes MOW/Secretariat.
MOW fans constantly accuse Sec fans of being misinformed, or not being true fans, someone who just watched the movie or heard of the world record Belmont and decided that he was the best horse ever.
But it might just be the opposite. MOW fans constantly spout nonsense that no true racing expert would use
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