No to split hairs but long shots rarely win Breeders’ Cup races; overlays do. The only recent long shot winner I can think of is Court Vision in the BC Mile a couple of years back. With that said, Big John B is definitely a long shot. He hasn’t even run in grade 1 company before. On the other hand, Hardest Core may be at similar odds but won the grade 1 Arlington Millions over probable turf participant Magician. IMO he definitely deserves a long look. Texas Red will probably have a new jock and is out of a barn that hasn’t really been competitive at this level of racing yet. Punctuate, on the other hand, could possibly be Bob Baffert’s “other” entry and was visually impressive in his maiden win going from last to first in traffic after breaking from post 13. Using your local horse angle, he fits and will be forgotten like New Year’s Day was last year, who coincidentally was Bob’s “other” entry and was coming off only a maiden win. Good luck to all.
It should be noted that the last 2 runnings of the BC juvenile were without lasix and both races fell apart badly after quick early fractions. That's probably why speed figures were lower.
Congratulations! A 40k score on a Sunday night is the perfect way to end the weekend.
I think Main Sequence is going to be the happy medium for many in this year's turf, in that he's really a euro but he's very familiar to Americans since he's won straight grade 1s in the states. The problem is he's been "just up" to beat basically the same horses in all three races with 3 perfect trips, and in the Turf he'll have a new jockey facing new horses that are better than the one's he's beaten his last 3 races. I'd rather look more outside the box, like Hardest Core.
I would think if they thought he was a grade 1 type dirt sprinter, they would have prepped him in the Vosburgh,the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes, or even the grade 3 sprint the day before. it almost seems like they want to try to get a grade 1 win on dirt before sending him to the breeding shed, but it's never that easy.
Tonalist broke his maiden at Gulfstream so it's not like he can only win at Belmont. Further, he still finished in the money in both Saratoga races. I think that means he's far from a Belmont specialist.
Please send him to the Classic. It will keep the odds on Tonalist and Zivo reasonable. 2 mile races on turf and some works over Keenland's new "dirt" surface is not a prep for a 10 furlong stakes race on dirt. He'll be done when the running starts. If they believed in his chances he should have run in the Awesome Again, JCGC, or even the race Homecoming Classic Stakes at Churchill, a track he's had success on before.
Nice long shot pick!
So far Santa Anita's new track seems to be fair, even on a big race day like last Saturday. That's good news for Tonalist and Zivo, who I think at this point are the most likely winners of the BCC.
I don't know if Beholder really wants to go 9 furlongs,
which may seem like a strange statement given her win in the Distaff last year,
but there was a tremendous speed bias that day at Santa Anita. Of the 6 dirt
races ran that day, 5 of those 6 winners were no more than 2 lengths off the
pace setter at any point in the race. The 6th dirt race was the 14 furlong BC
marathon, which fell apart completely, evidenced by the 27.80 second final quarter!
There was even a pick 5 carryover, which virtually never happens at Santa
Anita. Anyway, Closed Hatches, Beholder, and Belle Gallantey all want to be on
or very close to the lead, so it will be interesting to see who's still running
in the final furlong, especially if the speed bias is not as strong on 11/3.
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