IMO a lot of the recent data you have on the Breeders' Cup juvenile is not really usable for various reasons. First off, The BCJ was contested on a synthetic surface in 2008 and 2009, which had to effect which trainers decided to send their horses to the race. In 2012 and 2013, juveniles couldn't use lasix, which again, effects who actually ran in those races. That leaves 2010 and 2011. Uncle Mo was more than dominant in the fall of 2011, which probably scared off some competition, but as we know now the best horses of that generation either hadn't run on dirt yet or hadn't even made it to the race track yet. I think this year's results will be similar to 2011, where many of the horses that ran in the BJC came back to have great 3 year old seasons. In the 2011 BJC you had the Belmont, Travers, and Pacific Classic winners. Wow. This year, Texas Red will be on the LA path to the Derby, Carpe Diem probably on the Florida, and Upstart in NY. It should be an interesting year.
Todd's record in the Derby is a little misleading because it's not like he's taking the morning line favorite to the race every year and finishing off the board. Even when he won in 2010 Super Saver was still near 10-1.The Derby is hard to win because you need more than just a good horse. You need a good trip too. In a field or 8 -12 a good horse can overcome a bad trip. In a field of 19 or 20 a good horse can be done when the gates open.
I view scratches like I view the impact of weather on races; you can't always control what the weather will be like not just on race day but at the time of the race you're interested in, but you can have contingency plans in place, and that includes not playing. As a multi race wager player, I always have plan A, B, C, and D, so scratches don't necessarily through me for a loop, unless they occur at the gate and I'm forced to take the ml favorite, which I deliberately did not want. Del Mar is bad about late scratches, at least recently. Last weekend was a great example.
What's a bit lost in the Texas Red love is that Johnny V had Carpe Diem way to far back but had him moving late like a freight train to be up for 2nd. To me Kent D judged the pace scenario better than Johnny V and Kent had his horse moving at the right time while Johnny V waited too late. I hope they both stay healthy and they meet again the first Saturday in May.
He ran late on a speed favoring track, in a race that wasn't falling apart badly late. He wasn't pick up pieces, if you will. I'm not sure why you believe he can't do that again?
So will we get the Super Screener results for the Breeders' Cup or will we have to pretend like it never existed, as we had to do for the 2014 Belmont Super Screener? Just watching the "favorites to toss" video, I know at least 3 races were missed since you tossed Bayern, Judy the Beauty, and Bobby's Kitten. I'll cut you some slack since Bobby's Kitten was a bit difficult to get to, but the other 2 were just bad tosses.
In the Breeders' Cup Classic the mile was run in 1:34.16. How much more pace did Candy Boy need? I think what John Sadler really meant was he needed all the horses to stop so Candy Boy could win.
Good call on Texas Red. I hope you had him 6 ways to Sunday..
He's definitely the wise guy horse. I thought about him too but then thought he's never competed in let alone won a grade 1 race. He hasn't even won a grade 2 race or run 10 furlongs. And, curiously, Bill Mott chose to prep him for the Classic in an overnight stakes, although he used The JCGC to prep his last 2 BC Classic starters Drosselmeyer and Ron The Greek (even though he scratched). Seems fishy to me but good luck.
You mentioned the 19k score in the Kentucky Derby but don't mention that there was also a Belmont Super Screener. How did the Super Screener do there? When you "crushed" the 2013 Belmont there was definitely a post about that. Why not just post if you win or lose, unless you're trying to dupe those new to horse racing? Everyone except those new to horse racing know you can't win all the time, no matter how good a handicapper or wagerer you are.
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