When you run the final 2 furlongs in 27 seconds, you're spent, so it's doubtful she could have won by any more than she won. She's a nice, very durable 3 year old filly but will probably have no answers for Beholder and Stellar Wind in the Distaff. That still doesn't take away from the season she had. I would have loved to see her in the Kentucky Oaks. Oh well. You can't always get what you want.
I don't think most people realize that tons of horses get nominated to most big stakes races but few actually run in the race. The NYRA is just trying to hype Travers Day, as if it needs it.
Firstly, comparing final race times in general is a pretty poor handicapping tool, especially when it’s done over 2 different years. Nyquist is not in the same league as A.P. so let’s not compare apples to oranges. Secondly, Nyquist can get 9-10 furlongs if he’s loose on the lead or sitting behind hapless pace setters (like the Kentucky Derby), but not if he gets pace pressure. American Freedom dueled him into submission in the Haskell, for example. In the Preakness it was Uncle Lino. What do you think Dortmund or California Chrome or even Connect or Laoban would do to him? The point is he should shortened up where he could have an advantage, and so even if he has to use his speed a little he still doesn’t have to run as far. He could have a Goldencents type career at this point (6-8 furlong grade 1 wins), and that wouldn’t suck at all. There are no more loose leads or hapless pace setters at this point, so it’s time to start campaigning him as such. Trust me, Doug’s already thought through all of this but he is just spoon feeding the fans that may not understand how horse racing works.
Nyquist is a nice middle distance horse. I hope he's campaigned like one for the rest of the year, with the BC Mile and Malibu Stakes on the schedule. Both are races he could win and if they are so inclined, end his career with the money grab that is the Pegasus. We already know he likes the track.
You misspelled the filly's name: It's Hailey's Flip (with an "I")
So from the rail what was Mario supposed to do? Take back and let American Freedom pass him and Gun Runner or Awesome Slew box him in?
Maybe with a different jockey, but Creator's rabbit Gettysburg is supposed to make another appearance in the Travers, as well as Connect and Laoban. That's a lot of speed.
From the rail with 2 speed horses outside all Mario could do is send him. It's not that the strategy was flawed it's that American Freedom was more game than most imagined, and he put Nyquist away after the other speed horse stopped and finished last. The bottom line is Nyquist isn't the horse that people thought and it's just slowly playing out as we get deeper into the year. It happens. Mario G. is only doing what he can.
On the bright side he's a single in the pick 5 on Wednesday. Thanks for the heads up! And I wouldn't worry about it too much. If he romps he'll probably be in a stakes race next. The 3 year old division (on a dry track) is wide open.
It looks that way but the truth is they weren't crawling. That was horse race pace; Stellar Wind is just that good. I'm pretty sure if they both stay healthy we'll see a rematch in the Zenyatta.
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