Recently, 2 of the last 7 Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Tampa Derby. Musket man won the Tampa Derby in 2009 and ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. Since 2007, if my addition is correct, of the intermediate preps, the Tampa Derby has produced more horses that finished in the top 3 in the Kentucky Derby than the FOY, Risen Star, Rebel, or San Felipe. I’m not saying that’s predictive as the sample is somewhat small but I found it ironic if the results of the Tampa Derby are dismissed.
IHA would have been in the race but Trinniberg wouldn't have been. Bode would have been looser on the lead in a slower pace.
Ironically, War Emblem had the same jockey as California Chrome. And if the point system had been in place in 2012 Bodemeister would have had a great shot at a wire to wire job. Maybe California Chrome on the lead was a one time deal. I’d also love to see a jockey change on Conquest Titan. I think C Borel still needs a Derby horse. C.T. is only 1 of a handful of horses on the trail with a true 10 furlong pedigree.
I hope Art Sherman doesn't try an 8 week layoff going into a 10 furlong race by a horse that hasn't even run 9 furlongs yet. The last horse I can remember that tried something similar was Friesan Fire and that didn't work out too well. Wait didn't Lukas try that too last year? I just think it's a recipe for disaster, especially for a horse that likes to race near the front.
I think you meant 1:33.94 instead of 135.94 for the mile.
Point taken, but my overall point is that most years there are decent horses that dominate or look good in the early preps but then when the races get longer and it’s “win or don’t go to the Derby” time, the better horses start to separate themselves from the pack. I could have used Itsmyluckyday last year as an example. He set track records early in the year but couldn’t match strides with Orb in the FL Derby. Some say it was the layoff. There will always be an excuse but frankly it’s simply that at shorter distances some horses look more brilliant but as the races get longer only a handful of courses can be competitive.
I believe Princess of Sylmar went off at 39-1 because the public bit on Dreaming of Julia’s 1 good prep race at a speed favoring Gulfstream , ignoring her average to dull prior 2 races. Sylmar ran second to Closed Hatches after a 2 month layoff and the public forgot about her 3 prior very good races.
Last year Vyjack, a horse with a questionable 10 furlong pedigree, won the 1st and 3rd legs of the NY derby prep circuit and going into the Wood most people didn’t know what to make of him, even though he was undefeated and looked the part. Then, in the Wood, the big boys came for their final prep and Vyjack didn’t look as impressive while Normandy Invasion looked as if he was just starting to roll at the wire. I think Samraat, Uncle Sigh, and In Trouble will face the same fate as Vyjack when the big boys, maybe Top Billing, Conquest Titan, or others come to New York for their final Derby prep.
Very nice turn of foot on Schoolofhardrocks. I think it's either Bayern or him. Can't wait to see.
Great point. Plus, it didn't seem like Johnny V knew what he wanted to do with the horse out of the 1 hole. It also seems like it would have made more sense to run him at Aqueduct in the Gotham or Tampa next weekend instead of speed favoring Gulfstream. The Risen Star would have been another good choice and on the same weekend if he wanted to keep him on a certain schedule. I guess Todd didn't want to ship him for some reason.
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