He worked 5 days ago, which suggests Baffert is ready to bring him back sooner than the San Diego handicap. I looked through the condition book and there's an N3X carded on Saturday at a mile, which he should be eligible for, and would give him 21 days until the San Diego handicap. I'm just doing some guessing of course but it wouldn't surprise me to see him run Saturday.
American Pharoah isn't the reason why he hadn't won more races. That argument would make more sense if he consistently ran second every time they faced each other. He only ran second to American Pharoah once although they also faced each other in the Kentucky Derby, Breeders' Cup Classic, and Dubai World Cup. He's just an inconsistent horse that has been aggressively campaigned and it hasn't always worked out for him. Maybe he puts more races together this year.
Absolutely. He should take a break, run back in the Awesome Again, and then the Classic. Most Classic contenders take a break in the beginning of the summer or at the end, and since he's already got a spot in the BCC this would be the perfect time for his break.
Melatonin has won 2 grade 1 races this year but has only had to pass 1 horse. The conveyor belt at Santa Anita works perfectly for him. It will be interesting if all the top horses stay healthy because in the Breeders' Cup Classic there will be several horses (California Chrome, Nyquist,Beholder, Effinex, possibly Bradester and Dortmund, etc) that all want the same trip that Melatonin got today, which will probably create a very fast pace.
Gun Runner would have to win either the Haskell or Travers, and another grade 1 race against older horses to have a shot. The Matt Winn was inconclusive, as it was a class drop, short field, and a fast, speed favoring track. The race was tailor made for him. When Gun Runner faces the top of the division again we'll see if he can compete.
Frosted caught a very weak Met Mile field and ran fast on a fast track. The only other grade 1 winner in the race was Noble Bird, and his grade 1 was a little suspect due to the speed favoring surface at CD last June. Good for Frosted though. The cut back in distance probably helped too, and I hope he sticks to the 7-8 furlong distance where he may have an advantage.
Don't you know (on the internet, after the fact) every has the winning picks?
My guess is the story was prepared prior to Monday when the last 3 horses were added to the field.
Nope. She's didn't win at 10 furlongs either. Neither did Devil May Care. I'm sure Laurie will update the article soon.
I've been waiting for someone to write this article. As you alluded to, the post time favorite has won 3 of the past 20 renewals of the Belmont Stakes, fueled mostly by the fact that handicappers assume the outcome of the Kentucky Derby or Preakness is somehow predictive when it comes to the Belmont Stakes. I'm not sure people realize that once you run the distance of the Kentucky Derby, you have another 2 more furlongs to run to get to the mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes. This is the 1 race of the year where a good knowledge of pedigree and Belmont Stakes history can be very financially rewarding.
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