When the first 6 furlongs are run in 1:10.99 and the final furlong in 13.50, you're not going to get a high speed figure.Visually the race looked good but the field was weak and the clock told a different story, even though she did it easy.
She was second by a head at 1 call in 1 of her 6 races and maybe that's what you are referring to, but I don't believe I would call that rating. You mentioned American Pharoah, but the one race that he got early pace pressure he got beat. Songbird is no American Pharoah, and I still think there are enough 3 year old fillies on the east coast to keep her busy through the Oaks.
Songbird has been impressive running loose on the lead but if she took on males in the San Felipe, San Anita Derby, or Kentucky Derby, she wouldn't have that advantage. Today she beat some of the same horses she's beaten in the past, a maiden, and a couple of other average looking fillies. Cathryn Sophia has looked just as impressive through 2 races and doesn't need the lead. There are still other east coast fillies for her to contend with. If she cleans them all out in the Oaks then it makes sense to find a race to try males.
You have to admit this race was essentially a class drop so he should have done all the things you said he did.Before today Frosted had 2 wins out of the last 7 races he ran in that didn't feature A.P. He's no win machine and beating grade 3ish horses doesn't change that. When the big time euros and other American horses come for round 3 and the Classic we'll see how this member of the class of 2015 holds up.
How does this race validate your opinion? There was nothing in the race.
Songbird seemed like a more viable longshot contender to make a run for the Kentucky Derby before last weekend. It appeared as if she might be able to carve out a loose on the lead trip in either the San Felipe or Santa Anita Derby and get the points she needs in a year where the west coast colts don’t seem as formidable. Now, if she does try the San Felipe or Santa Anita Derby, she could finally run into pace pressure against the likes of Smokey Image or Mineyerownmalone, so she’d lose that advantage and might be in a dog fight. Plus, as impressive as Cathryn Sophia was at GP, Songbird might not even be the best 3 year old filly in training. She had a great 2 year old year but not against much and there are some fillies emerging late that might give her a run for her money.
Upstart and Cairo Prince looked just as impressive as Mohaymen in the previous 2 Holy Bull races. Further, the Holy Bull has had no significant impact on the Kentucky Derby since Barbaro won 9 years ago and it was 9 furlongs then . My point is all Mohaymen did was prove he's still in form, which is good, but it's only January and the major contenders haven't emerged. Dominating horses on a speed favoring track in January is a good thing but when the competition gets better and the races get longer we'll get a better idea of how good Mohaymen is. If he wins the Florida Derby in the same fashion then he'll be on the short list of contenders to win the Kentucky Derby.
I thought we were projecting Shagaf forward as a Derby
contender and I was tapping the breaks on that for the reasons I stated. If we're just talking about this race then absolutely he is a contender, but he's 8/5 morning line and the other logical horse is Rally Cry who is 9/5. I’d guess
one of the 2 would win, but if I played I’d probably run an EXA with those 2 over the field if the exacta payout looked decent. Then there’s the Barbaro angle (Mike Matz and January turf to dirt) with Taist, who appears to be training
well on dirt but is coming off a layoff. I’d guess one of those 3 but I hadn’t looked at the pp’s.
I didn't say it was a wire job. A speed bias doesn't always mean a wire job. As I wrote below he was never more than 2 lengths off the leader, just like most winners on dirt that day. If he runs Friday he'll be no worse than second choice in a field of at most 7, facing winners for the first time and could have benefited from a speed bias. I'm not sure why there's a rush to wager on/tout that but to each his own.
I believe I wrote every winner that day was on or near the lead, and in Shagaf's case at no point was he more than 2 lengths off the leader. Zulu also won by about the same margin a race later in the slop at GP as itsallrelavent did, but Zulu beat winners and Itsallrelavent beat maidens. My only point was when you race maidens and you do it on a speed favoring track you want to be careful the next time he runs because that perfect set up may not be there. He could be the real deal but I wouldn't judge him by that race. Everybody that reads the past performances will see that he won by a lot of lengths, but the past performances won't show that every horse that day won by several lengths. Was every horse great that day or was the outside part of the track a conveyor belt? We'll see soon.
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