Karakontie is listed twice in the mile, and too low in my humble opinion.
He was an MTO entry but the race didn't come off the turf.
As the post below suggests I'd urge you to check the charts and I think you'd see that A.P. isn't the super horse you believe the Travers shows he is. A.P. is a slow early somewhat faster late type of horse, which is different than the great speed horses of the last few years. Look at the splits of the 2012 and 2014 Classic; A.P. has never run that fast early in a race. Look at the 2015 Travers chart vs the 2015 Awesome Again chart. You'll see the same slow early fast middle pattern, but then you'll see the Travers slow down and the Awesome Again speed up. A middle move tired A.P. out and the race slowed down. Smooth Roller found his best stride with the same middle move as Frosted but flew home. You may be surprised by the outcome of the Classic. Good luck to all.
The same middle move that weakened American Pharoah in the Travers will be done in the Classic too, either by the master of the middle move, Gary Stevens, Smooth Roller, or somebody. It doesn't matter if American Pharoah is loose early because he has to prove that he could take pace pressure and still finish strongly against the best horses he's ever run against. I don't belive he'll be able to.
Part of the reason why the horses you mentioned went to the Classic instead of the mile is because the pace scenario at a mile is a lot different than at 9-10 furlongs. A horse maybe be speedy at 9 or 10 furlongs, but may not be used to the early speed of graded stakes milers. The races are typically run a lot faster earlier and even a horse like Liam's Map could get burned up in the pace.Goldencents had sprinter speed but could stretch to the distance of 8 furlongs. We'll have to see if Liam's Map can do it.
I think you're right. The presence of Liam's Map could have caused suicidal fractions, but without him the pace will be sensible with American Pharoah loose early but Smooth Roller off him and Beholder tracking them. Neither Tyler Baze or Gary Stevens will let American Pharoah get too comfortable, and he'll probably end up like he did in the Travers once either or both of them make that middle move.
7 data points isn't a lot, but in general as you state find a good euro and you probably have the winner in this race. Post is important until it isn't, like Work all Week in post 13 last year in the BC sprint at 19.10-1 and Karakontie from post 14 in the Mile at 30-1. Karakontie had the class so I got her but I let Work All Week beat me. It's the Breeders' Cup so it's possible that a good horse can win from a bad post. It's worth a shot, especially if you don't have to take low odds to find out. Good luck...
The second place finisher in the Pacific Class came back to run a game 2nd in the Breeder's Cup Classic. When 2 horses out of a race run back and finish in the top 4 of the Classic that's not a weak race.
Honor Code needs a race to fall apart late for him to win. The 3 races he won this year were all falling apart late. This race, not so much, so while he didn't get embarrassed he wasn't going to catch the pace setter. The speed in the Breeders Cup Classic is better than Appealing Tale so you'd expect him to come up short there too.
This race has nothing to do with the Pacific Classic because Red Vine never looked like a winner in that race.
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