That theory sounds good but the data doesn't support it. First we've only had 4 races under the point system, which is too few to reach any meaningful conclusion. Secondly, and ironically, the pace through 6 furlongs in the last year of the earnings system (2012) and the first year of the points system (2013) was identical (1:09.80), and the pace through 6 furlongs last year (1:10.40) was faster than the majority of the Kentucky Derby races since 2000. The bottom line is the pace is as random as the horses running in the Kentucky Derby each year and there's no clear evidence that the point system has reduced that randomness. There is no Bob Black Jack or Trinniberg in the race this year, so the pace probably won't be suicidal, but it's hard to say how it will develop beyond that.
Steve Haskins also raved about how well he was working before the Blue Grass. At this point, how a horse works is less important that what the horse has done on the race track. Some horses look great in the morning but not so great in the afternoon. I'm sure McCracken will be at his best in the Kentucky Derby but it's fair to wonder if his best is enough to win.
Really? Who did they pick to win last year?
That doesn't have anything to do with the point system though, as twice in the past 4 years huge double digit longshots have finished in the money (Commanding Curve & Golden Soul). Also the point system hasn't had an impact on the pace because in 2013 and 2016 the pace was very fast. The bottom line is 4 or 5 years worth of data aren't enough to say what impact the point system is having on payouts.
It's hard to say. He would have still picked up some points by running in 4th in the Sunland Derby, and there have been races since the point system that haven't had 20 starters, so horses with no points could have had a chance to run. In 2009 the projected morning line favorite Quality Road scratched a couple of weeks out and the morning line favorite scratched on the day of the Kentucky Derby. MTB could have gotten into the race out right or been an AE. Or his connections may have tried another Derby prep after the Sunland Derby if they thought they needed more points, like Irap did.
I thought you would have learned your lesson by now. My guess is you'll to go the Douglas Rutherford (sp) route soon enough and trust me 99% of your posts are jibberish and don't need a response, but calling out DerbyDoc when you've made an equally insane prediction on this site about California Chrome had to be brought up.
Didn't you say virtually the same thing about Chrome in one of those big races, and you hid under a rock for a while as well? Yall are twins....lol
A 97 beyer is higher than most of the Kentucky Derby winners over the Past 10 years, including Nyquist (94), Animal Kingdom (95), I'll Have Another (95), etc. Andy Beyer can't even predict the winner of the Kentucky Derby with any regularity and his numbers can't either.
He ran essentially the same race at Tampa 2 starts ago so and was a nose away from winning at Saratoga last summer coming from off the pace so it's not a GP thing. Todd helped him put the pieces together and barring a breakout race from McCraken or West Coast of someone else in the next 2 weeks he looks like the real deal.
You're asking too many questions!! lol Andy had to give Materiality a high Beyer to justify his Derby pick Upstart. Check out his 2015 Kentucky Derby analysis: https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps/g/page/sports/2015-kentucky-derby-field-odds-and-andrew-beyers-analysis/1681/
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