Include Betty got the job done Saturday but the field was suspect at best and the race fell completely apart late. She couldn't have asked for a better set up but when you consider the race that Curliana ran on Belmont day it's hard to think Include Betty can compete with her, Shook Up, or maybe even Stellar Wind. I believe Coach Inge is headed to the Suburban too. He might be slightly overlaid considering the name recognition of the others in the race but he could actually be the best older horse in training right now. We'll know more Saturday night.
Yeah but he lost to Shared Belief and California Chrome. I don't think anyone excepted Hop to beat those 2.He still ran 3rd. Bob's still the best (percentage wise) at going from grade 1 to grade 1 in 2 weeks.
I've got the same handle on twitter, although I rarely tweet.
If you have a Twinspires account you have access to the American Producer Records on the day of the race by clicking on the name of the horse, trainer, or jockey in a particular race. I won’t give away all the secrets online but the proper use of pedigree analysis and that database could have brought you Turulu in Santa Anita race 5 on June 19th or C d’Cat in Aqueduct race 10 on June 20th. Since the summer is here there will be many more MSW and maiden claiming spot play opportunities which can be very useful at either the betting window or in contests. As an analyst in real life I’ve learned to focus less on absolutes and more on the preponderance of the facts, and that philosophy is extremely helpful in horse racing. Yes, there will always be an outlier or two along the way but in the long run to have a positive R.O.I. you need to know what the facts are and don’t try to go against where those facts are taking you.
I think 8 furlongs is the perfect distance for Firing Line. 9 is a stretch. By Breeders' Cup time I think he'll be at that distance.
He already is a grade 1 winner.
The eyeball test says Frosted wasn't really closing that fast in the final furlong of the Derby. It looked like he hung a little bit, and he his jockey kept him behind horses instead of swinging out a bit wider to try to run past them. Keen Ice and Materiality were closing better than he was. Frosted could win but I don't believe he's the best choice to beat A.P.
Speaking of Uncle Mo, isn't his full brother scheduled to race Friday at Belmont (race 5)?
Materiality also had an inside trip, with a clearer path to the wire. If you watch the replay with about a 1/16 to run Keen Ice was behind 2 horses, barreled between them, and only found his best stride on the outside a few jumps from the wire but was traveling better than Materiality at the point with a worse trip. I'm not saying either will win the Belmont or they won't but that Materiality's troubles in the race have been slightly exaggerated and Keen Ice's troubles ignored because people expected him to finish way up the track anyway. That's a classic case of confirmation bias.
The problem with your rankings is that you assume 9 - 10 furlong form matters at 12 furlongs when it doesn't. Imagine running the 10 furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby, and then running 2 more furlongs. Now you've got the Belmont Stakes. If you were following horse racing at the time, you probably thought Sarava, Birdstone, maybe Jazil, Da'Tara, Drosselmeyer, Ruler On Ice, Palace Malice, etc. had no shot to win either.They won very few races leading up to Belmont and some didn't even compete in the Kentucky Derby. Either there are a lot of flukes that occur in the Belmont or there's something else at play. Either all these horses attempting to win the triple crown run into a lot of "bad luck" in the Belmont, or Kentucky Derby success is not predictive of Belmont success. We'll get another data point in about a week.
Copyright © 2010 -
other passionate horse racing fans!