He hasn't hit the work tab since the Kentucky Derby so it's looking unlikely.
Another Todd Pletcher horse, Gettysburg, is scheduled to run tomorrow in an allowance race at BEL, and even though the timing is a bit off, if he has any easy race it wouldn't surprise me if he wheeled back to run in the Belmont. Even with a bad post I don't think Todd would scratch him out of a stakes race and instead run in an allowance race a few days later unless they were both preps for a bigger race, i.e. the Belmont Stakes. We'll see.
Seattle Slew had a lot of sons who have thrown little stamina at stud on the sire or dam side. Vindication is one of them. On the dam side, there are a few recent horses with Vindication as the damsire (Dazzling Gem, Far Right,Dunkin Bend, Flexibility, Sawyer's Hill, Shakin It Up, etc) that have not excelled beyond 9 furlongs. That's not to say Exaggerator can't or won't win the Belmont but Vindication as a damsire is not really a plus.
That stat about the fastest opening quarter in Preakness history may
provide some solace for Nyquist fans, but it was almost identical to the
opening quarter in the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Derby opening
half was nearly 1 second faster. The fundamental difference is Nyquist
didn't get the loose lead/plum trip he was accustomed to and he was
empty late. In the Belmont Destin will prevent him from being loose on
the lead and I expect him to be empty again in the 11th and 12th furlong. I assume he's running in the
Belmont because he'll be retired afterwards. Otherwise, there's no point
in risking a run in the Belmont with the Haskell, possibly Travers,
Penn Derby, and BC mile/classic coming up later in the year.
The Belmont is not a race to rebound in. 12 furlongs is a long way to run, and many horses are never the same afterwards. There's no point for his connections to run in that race and potentially jeopardize the horses' future. The Haskell, Penn Derby, and BC Mile or Classic would be a great way for him to end his year/career.
Same in the Kentucky Derby. He'll be overlooked but has an excellent chance to win the Belmont.
Excellent? Is there a way for the common man (me) to verify this? I've read some of his material online, going back to 2011, and I'd say he's decent not excellent, and the Super Screener results don't disprove that.
A 1:11.30 pace at 9 furlongs is not soft, which is what he stalked at KEE. As a matter of fact Nyquist set a pace of 1:11.39 in the Florida Derby, so there's that, and1:11.30 was faster than the pace of the Bluegrass Stakes the day before at Keenland. Further, coming from a maiden or allowance race of "nobodies' into a big time stakes race is what the Triple Crown trail is all about. Bernardini was coming off a weak grade 3 in 2006. He hadn't beaten anyone, but he showed talent. Sweetnorthernsaint and Barbaro looked like they would be unbeatable in the Preakness that year. Big Brown in 2008 was coming off an allowance win prior to the the FL Derby. He hadn't beaten anyone. Animal Kingdom hadn't "beaten anybody" in his 4 starts prior to the Kentucky Derby. I could list at least 20 more examples, even last year Tale of Verve was coming off a slow maiden win but ran 2nd in the Preakness, ahead of grade 1 winners. It's not always who you beat; it's how you beat them and what the competition in the next race looks like. Nyquist was the best horse going into the Kentucky Derby and the best coming out, but the horses behind him weren't spectacular. This gives Stradivari has a good chance to make some noise in the Preakness.
A horse other than the Kentucky Derby winner has won the Preakness 10 of the last 20 years. Each year is obviously independent of the next, but the bottom line is the Kentucky Derby winner is never a cinch to win the Preakness, no matter how great he looked at Churchill. Orb was the last good looking Derby winner that was defeated by a Derby also ran (Oxbow) in 2013. No one really saw that coming, but each Triple Crown race presents its own handicapping challenges.
You must not have cashed the ticket yet because Uncle Sam always gets paid first on multi race tickets that pay over 5 grand. All you'll is 80%, which was ~4290. I wasn't mad but I would rather make Uncle Sam wait for his money instead of paying him in advance.
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