The problem with Jon Luman’s point about the frailty of “form” handicapping or handicapping in general is you can’t take the results from a ~27k Maiden Special Weight race at Canterbury Park and attempt to make some larger point about the value of racing forms or handicapping. Firstly the WPS wagering pool in the race in question was small and the track in question is more of a bridgejumpers track, so you’ll get weird odds and players looking for "cinches". Also, just sifting through Equibase charts, I gathered that race was Burning Fuhry’s second lifetime start in a route turf race and with a new jockey. Every change a horse undergoes is useful information and can move a horse up. That information would have been in the form since the racing form summarizes past race information and any changes (except being gelded) that a horse has undergone since his/her last race. By no means is the form the only handicapping tool but it does offer a tremendous amount of info for anyone that knows how to read it.
Game on Dude will be back and I hope with Martin Garcia as jockey. He needs to be loose on the lead and he doesn’t like to rate, so I don’t understand what Mike Smith was doing. Fury Kapcori couldn’t carry his speed 9 furlongs so it’s no shock he couldn’t do it for 10, even though he also got a strange ride from his jock.
This is a pretty good list, but I don’t think Fury Kapcori should be on it. He has yet to win a grade 2 race at 9 furlongs and is unproven at 10 furlongs. Clubhouse Ride should probably be there instead, as he is at least grade 1 placed at 10 furlongs. Either way, having several pace horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic doesn’t bode well for any of them.
Was there a list like this last year? If so it would be great to see a “where are they now” follow up post. Maybe I missed it. Also, Blame’s son won yesterday at Santa Anita and Looking At Lucky has already sired several winners. He has a son running today at Santa Anita. It’s hard to tell a lot from 5 or 6 furlongs but at least some of the stars of yesterday have kids reaching racing age this year.
There is a lot of irony in the tweet from Donegal racing. On the same day as the local prep for the Haskell, their horse dropped from stakes company back into a MSW and is now pointing to the Travers. I’d assume the Jim Dandy is next, but if it is wouldn’t you wait for a good showing in that race before talking about the Travers?
Great read. Thanks for sharing your experience.
Anyone know what happened with the Belmont Super Screener this year? I guess no news is bad news but I thought about because there seemed to be 1 less pop up to click on this site.
Absolutely I would feel the same way. Let’s be clear on one thing: The Kentucky Derby is more an ego trip than a great or competitive race. The best horse in the field rarely wins the race. Some horses get hurt in the race and never race again. Half the field is simply not talented enough to win but the owners/trainers push the horses in the race anyway. The Derby pays a lot of money, but it’s not the richest race in America and there are other prestigious 3 year old races to run in. And if my horse is good enough the Breeders’ Cup is later in the year and the World Cup is on dirt again starting next year.
In my opinion, the only rule that possibly needs to be rethought is the number of starters in the Kentucky Derby. If you reduce that number to maybe 15, the horses should get a cleaner trip and you might see a Triple Crown winner sooner than you think. I think about a horse like Afleet Alex. With a better draw, cleaner trip, and/or fewer horses he may have won the Derby, and we all know what he did in the last 2 Triple Crown races. I even think about Curlin and Point Given. The grind of the 3 races in 5 weeks didn’t kill them but they had some bad racing fortune in the Derby.
Will Take Charge beat MMM the last time they raced against each other so I wouldn't call the field weak. Plus the Alysheba winner will be looking for the upset again.
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