But it doesn't. The best horse in the Kentucky Derby field doesn't always win (i.e. Palace Malice). Sometimes the best 3 year old isn't even in the field (i.e. Arrogate). It's a small sample but 2 of the 4 Derby winners since the point system started never won another race so it's hard to argue Nyquist or Orb were the best horse of their generation despite having the 1st or 2nd most points in their respective years.
He's not triple crown nominated.
Bronze Age is also a potential speed horse. He runs in the Sunland Derby in 2 weeks. We're still in the middle of the process. I'm sure there will be many surprises up until the day of the Kentucky Derby.
This is a fair point, but a couple
of horses from that allowance race that featured Battalion Runner and Beasley (Looking
at Blessing, Fire For Effect) have already run back and finished off the board
again. Also, there appears to be a lot of speed in the Tampa Derby, so if
Beasley couldn’t wire an allowance field while crawling on the pace, it’s
unlikely he can wire a field with stakes quality speed. We’ll know for sure Saturday.
I just rewatched the race. I'm guessing Rosario didn't let him pass 3 rules because he thought 3 rules was going to fast and was probably going to stop. Who knows. There's 1 more race for IWC and Gunnevera before the Kentucky Derby so we'll see how they fare..
BE02 is back as BE03 so why not Douglas too? lol
Gunnevera's "setup" is being overrated. Yes the top 2 finishers of the Fountain of Youth came from off the pace, but the horse that set those "fast" fractions still held on for third. It wasn't as if it was a suicide pace. If that were so 3 rules would have finished further back like Irish War Cry. In The Holy Bull Castellano sensed a slow pace and kept him closer, but in a faster pace he kept him dead last. That's not a perfect set up but a perfect ride.
I thought you learned your lesson as BE02 about judging a horse's ability using final race times? Didn't California Chrome winning the 2015 Dubai World Cup send you into exile while your fast final time picks of Frosted and Special Fighter finished up the track?
You have discovered the fallacy of using final times as a handicapping tool. How the fractions are earned and the running style of the horse are far more valuable than the final time of the race. Irish War Cry has to prove that he can be effective without being loose on the lead and he'll get one more chance to move it in his next start.
Horses have gone from dirt to turf and all weather to dirt many times on the Derby trail and in the Kentucky Derby. Mark Kennedy mentioned Animal Kingdom below, but let's not forget a few others like Barbaro and Big Brown. There are more, but these few are enough to disprove your opinion of that angle. The truth is most Kentucky Derby angles work until they don't. The number of weeks out for the last prep, dosage, being a gelding, the number of starts, post position, minimum speed figure, etc. have all gone by the wayside as fool proof angles. While it's important to understand trends and stats each Kentucky Derby is different and may require bending certain rules that were once true. It's what makes the Kentucky Derby fun and some years very lucrative.
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