I don't know if Beholder really wants to go 9 furlongs,
which may seem like a strange statement given her win in the Distaff last year,
but there was a tremendous speed bias that day at Santa Anita. Of the 6 dirt
races ran that day, 5 of those 6 winners were no more than 2 lengths off the
pace setter at any point in the race. The 6th dirt race was the 14 furlong BC
marathon, which fell apart completely, evidenced by the 27.80 second final quarter!
There was even a pick 5 carryover, which virtually never happens at Santa
Anita. Anyway, Closed Hatches, Beholder, and Belle Gallantey all want to be on
or very close to the lead, so it will be interesting to see who's still running
in the final furlong, especially if the speed bias is not as strong on 11/3.
I'm not sure if Secret Circle is "faster" than Goldencents, seeing as Goldencents just set the track record for 7 furlongs at Del Mar and the fact that the Sprint Championship would be a cutback in distance for him. He's raced more recently and appears to be the horse to beat. Merit Man ran well at Del Mar but seems to be outclassed here.
Nice 'capping! 4 winning tickets, over a grand, and no need to visit the IRS window. That's the best way to do it.
Of the 3 8.5f stakes races run at Santa Anita that day, this was the slowest of the 3 by about 1.5 seconds. 1:12.02 for 6 furlongs and a 1:36.95 for a mile? Yikes. I think Angela Renee was as suspect after the race as she was before; it's just that the competition out west was weaker than I thought. I'm looking elsewhere for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner.
You don't have to stick with him. Change is ok. He's been run down late more times than he's won, so if you throw in a wide post and another speed horse right next to him I'm not sure how that equals victory for him.
There are 2 speed horses in the JCGC and they are drawn the widest and right next to each other. That usually means a pace duel even if not a super fast pace but they do each other in.
Plesa knows his horse and knows he doesn't want to run that far, or at least he doesn't want to have to run 10 furlongs back to back if he chooses to run in the BCC. It's really simple IMO. In Plesa's mind it's an easier prep and gives him options later with a fresher horse. The problem is he's not the first trainer to try to this route recently (Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve) and just like it didn't work for them it's not going to work for IMLD. IMLD will probably end up in the Breeders' Cup mile.
Those sub 2's you refer to came loose on the lead and against inferior horses. Plus I don't trust Blanc to outride Smith, Bejarano, etc. Footbridge and/or Fed Biz want to be on or near the lead as well in this race. Majestic Harbor's victory in the Gold Cup came in a pace meltdown. Lots of knocks on many horses. I'd go Shared Belief or Imperative.
I'm surprised that such a low score won the whole thing, but there weren't many prices Saturday at Belmont.
Whether fair or not, the only way to wrest the 3 year old title away from California Chrome is for another 3 year old to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Copyright © 2010 -
other passionate horse racing fans!