Any idea how BRIS has done historically at picking Derby winners? I've done the research on Beyer and it's not better than picking the post time favorite. I'd suspect BRIS is equally as average/unremarkable.
2009. Besides Fellowship (if he doesn't make the Derby field) and Stradivari I don't know who else is lurking; maybe Unified?
I don't think this race is wide open: Cathryn Sophia, Lewis Bay, or Land Over Sea. If the betting public didn't know Rachel Valentina's mom there wouldn't be as much hype on her since she's yet to run a huge race yet. By this point in Rachel Alexandra's career Rachel A had run about 4 huge races in a row, although she had more of a racing foundation. Rachel A. was more dominant that people think Sonbird is this year. Rachel would have easily been the Kentucky Derby morning line favorite in 2009, and this was all before she was moved to Steve A's barn. The daughter has shown that yet.
In the Gazelle, Irad looked back on the far turn to see how much more riding he had to do, then hit Lewis Bay a couple of times and separated from RO. Then he looked back again to see he was clear and then went to a hand ride through the wire. That's probably why RO went past so easily after the wire: Irad had long stopped riding.
My point is for as great of a sire as Giant's Causeway is supposed to be, and as game as he was in the Breeders' Cup Classic, his dirt runners have had no impact on triple crown races and little impact on 10 furlong races. The same is true for Siberian Summer: He hasn't thrown any stamina. The Tampa Derby took a lot out of him or he wouldn't have trained up to the Derby. Now he's got to run 1.5 furlongs further than he's ever run against the best field he's ever faced. That sounds like a buzzsaw...
How does Destin answer the question about being bred for the distance when his full brother is the only son of Giant's Causeway to ever finish in the money in a triple crown race (a distance third in the 2012 Preakness) and his damsire throws little stamina?
Your odds almost balance, but if you lowered Creator's odds to a more realistic number, like 8-1 or 10-1, you'd be better. I think it's unrealistic to think that the Arkansas Derby winner's morning line odds would be almost twice the Louisiana Derby winner. I don't think that's realistic.
Not exactly.10 of the last 16 (including 3 of the last 6) 2nd place finishers in the Kentucky Derby were over 10-1.
But there are more horses that won the AR Derby that didn't win the Kentucky Derby. Do those count?
Many horses, including American Pharoah, lose their first race ever. Some lose a few races.It's no big deal. Eventually some put it together. I didn't mention time, I mentioned winning at 9 furlongs by 14 lengths. Can you find any examples at any level winning that convincingly at that distance? Maybe you're not familiar with the path 3 year olds take into the Triple Crown races or maybe you're not familiar with how rare you ever see a 9 furlong race dominated by 14 lengths.
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