The plot thickens.....
Makes sense. A few weeks ago "the reports" said Blofeld outworked him, and then the 6 furlong listed stakes race prep was an indication that he wasn't where he needed to be in order to compete in the Met Mile. I think they should just retire him. It's hard to keep a horse at the grade 1 level for several years. He had a great career.
I'd be surprised if Palace Malice runs. You don't prep for the Met Mile in a 6 furlong listed stakes race; to me that was a sign that all is not well for him at this point. Having said that, the race seems easy. The race sets up for a closer. Tonalist is undefeated at Belmont in 4 races from 8 to 12 furlongs. I'd say he's a horse for the course. Bayern benefited from a golden rail and weak competition last year in the Woody Stephens, but this race is loaded with speed and he'll have to be running from jump 1with no breathers. He should have hit the work tab last week but didn't so he might not be running anyway.
I hate "I told you so's" because they don't put money in anyone's pocket and anyone can be wrong. I've been on this site at least 2 years and don't have my profile blocked like some of these keyboard handicappers. I liked Palace Malice in 2013, Matusak and Commissioner last year, and I like Keen Ice & Frosted this year.
I don't know but Curlin lost by a nose and Dunkirk ran 3rd. It may not have happened but it's not impossible.
I made a subjective comment but supported it with facts. You made a subjective comment and supported it with subjective information. The facts are AK, MMM, & Shackleford ran in all 3 Triple Crown races. Nehro ran in 2. Shackleford went on to win the Preakness at 9.5 furlongs and ended his career with a win in the 9 furlong Clark Handicap. All 4 of the top 4 finishers in the Kentucky Derby that year were bred to be route horses, with Nehro being the most injury prone, most went on to win or place in routes ranging from 9 - 10 furlongs over the next 2 years. The top 3 this year were not bred to be route horses but were able to get to the Derby. American Pharoah is obviously the best of the 3 and has more stamina than the other 2 as a sire side descendant of Unbrilded. Since Dortmund & Firing Line have already played with house money and run beyond their pedigree they are sitting the Belmont out and hoping to regroup later this year. The Derby trail and Triple Crown races can ruin horses not built to run beyond 9 furlongs and some horses never run again after the Derby. Some never again after the Preakness. You are correct that time will tell the complete story but I made this
same point last year about this time about Samraat and Uncle Sigh, the
Firing Line and Dortmund of last year, and I'm still waiting for their
racing careers to restart.
Deputy Minister is damsire to 2 Belmont winners in the last 10 years. Not to mention damsire to Curlin, who lost by a small margin. Deputy Minister was also sire to another Belmont winner Touch Gold. His son Awesome Again has thrown horses like Paynter and Oxbow (both 2nd in Belmont), Game on Dude, and Ghostzapper. Deputy Minister's daddy Vice Regent was damsire of another Belmont winner Victory Gallop, not to mention several horses that have finished in the money in the Belmont There's also Commissioner, who ran 2nd in the Belmont. Long story short Deputy Minister on the dam side bodes well for Frosted.
Mucho Macho Man not consistent? I think you "misremember". He won ran 2nd in the 2013 BCC and then won the BCC in 2014, and a slew of 9 furlong races in between. Nehro has hampered the most by injuries but he still won the 9.5 furlong Pimlico Special in 2012. Shackleford won the Preakness and a variety of races between 8 and 9 furlongs, including the 9 furlong grade 1 Clark as his final race. More importantly, 3 of the top 4 Derby finishers in 2011 ran in all 3 triple crown races. Nehro just ran in the Derby and the Belmont. This is similar to 2007, where 2 of the top 3 ran in all Triple Crown races and only Street Sense didn't run in the Belmont. American Pharaoh is the only 1 of the 3 top finishers from this year's Derby that will run in all 3 races. The other 2 will be on the shelf for a while. That's not a deep group.
A strong crop is bred to get better with distance and time. The top 3 this year aren't bred as such. Consider 2011: Animal Kingdowm, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, & Shackleford. All 4 of those horses had run 9 furlongs at least twice prior to the Kentucky Derby. These horses were bred to get better with distance and time. Count number of grade and group 1 horses those 4 won over the next 2 years. They looked strong before the Derby and they were strong. American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Firing Line are no where near that group. 2007 is the same way was another great group. Only one of the top 3 this year is even going to the Belmont as their trainers know they've already run further than they expected they could. Don't believe the hype my friend.
The 'experts' gave Tale of Verve and Diving Rod virtually no shot to finish on the board but they excelled while the others didn't. Some thought Dortmund would rebound but he got a decent trip but simply doesn't want to run this far. The crop has always been weak. 2 new shooters finished in front of the "great" Dortmund and Firing Line. Those horses were never great. They just got the perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
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