Here's a list of things Arrogate will still have to prove if he wins the DWC and breaks CC's record(which he probably will, he'd have to run almost 2 seconds slower than he did in the BCC to not break it and he was 3 then).
1 That he could run as a developing horse trying new distances against the best of his crop. He will never be able to prove this because he missed the TC and the process that leads up to it. While the Travers is better than nothing, it's pretty late in the development process and he came in fresh against a bunch of grizzled vets who'd fought through that process.
2 He can run 12. All of the all time greats except Spectacular Bid who've tried at this distance have proven themselves at this distance and in spectacular fashion. This tends to be a distance where success correlates with greatness. Also if there's a magical cure for number 1, it would be coming even within a second and a half of Secretariat's record or closer.
3 "Versatility". While I think this is BS for breeeders rather than fans, most classic horses don't have a need to run 8 anyway, winning the Met in even close to Frosted's time would be rather unique.
4 Run 10 at 4 one more time on a fast track(not Meydan). Seeing the damage Arrogate did to the poor clock at Saratoga(a slow track) as a three year old it would be crazy for him to run at 4 without showing us what fully developed Arrogate can do at 10. It is not impossible he can break the Bid's record and a real possibility he get's into the 1.58's IF he repeats his Travers performance. 1.59.36 at Saratoga is probably in the low 1.58's at SA and this is when HE WAS 3! Basically if he repeats the same performance at 4(unlikely) Bid's record will be in serious jeopardy especially if Arrogate is running at SA or Belmont.
If a great three year old emerges you might be right but at the end of the day they'll be 3 and he'll be 4, they're the ones with something to prove (most likely again if a TC winner or ATG comes out of the group it's a different story but statistically one won't) not the other way around.
Of all the three year old horses who were capable of winning the TC in the 20th century part of the drought era you have Sunday Silence and Easy Goer who were unlucky enough to have been born in the same year and I think far and away the third best three year old from that era is Spend a Buck. With him it's even more frustrating than IHA because his connections took a TC capable horse and sent him after the money, I think it's an episode we all should try to forget.
That's the lowest I'd rate him I think he's top 120 ever no brainer.
100%, I think he would have. Makes the fact he didn't get the chance hurt more. Up to that point he had done better time wise than even AP(as a three year old, not two and clearly after the Belmont AP takes the lead there by alot) or perhaps any three year old except maybe PG. He also did it against the best crop of three year olds I have ever seen(that group has about 6 horses who could have been dual classic winners in 2013 IMO). Just 2-3 more wins in that same manner he won his 4 stakes and he'd have AP's place in the all time great pantheon.
When they first started grading stakes they were tons of races at 10 furlongs at many tracks not just Churchill, SA, Del Mar and Santa Anita. Hialeah, Monmouth, Suffolk, Arlington etc. 12 was also the classic distance(JCGC, Belmont, Woodward and Brooklyn were all 12 at one point) that 10 is now. We've now got just 2 10 furlong races for three year olds and 4 G1's for older horses(and the BCC) at 3 tracks(with SA annexing the Hollywood Gold Cup). Add the G2 Suburban and that's a fifth. Then there's the ceremonial Belmont and Preakness at 12 and 9.5. A large plurality of G1 stakes races are at 8.5 and 9. Whitney used to be 10, Woodward used to be 10, used to be a 10 furlong G1 at Monmouth, Widener, Mass Handicap, Arlington Classic, American Derby all these races are either gone or got turned into turf races. Yet when i voice the concerns that the Pegasus can conceivably turn everything except the Derby, Belmont, Travers and Preakness to 9 furlongs, people laugh at me. The BCC can be changed by the Pegasus the same way the JCGC was by the BCC. The Santa Anita Handicap can get demoted and eliminated the same way the Pimlico Special did(it's a G3 just five years after demotion). All that leaves is the JCGC, PC, HGC and Suburban and if you look at history you know these races distances could be changed just like that especially the Belmont ones. Belmont doesn't have a championship at 9 so I can totally see Belmont just moving the JCGC and Suburban to 9 if that becomes the standard for what a title race is.
Our sport's heritage is under attack! I'm going to post a chart about how exactly G1's have evolved by distance since 1974. Of course that doesn't even tell the story of when 13, 14 and 16 furlongs were viable distances as those distances were all but dead when stakes races started being graded.
Top 80-100 of all time! 120 worst.
I know it's stupid to like a horse solely based on pedigree but still seeing as we're in the 8.5 phase of the three year old season it matters alot to me. I have fond memories of Dialed in and remember people going on and on about his long stride. Same thing goes with AA and Bodemeister damm I love that horse. For some reason more of my non racing friends have heard of Bodemeister than AP, this is bizzare for some reason he was super popular(unlike IHA).
Their are probably 4 horses of those 10 that could likely win though. Small field but a strong small field.
If his last start was due to the absecess then yes, if his last race was really him, I think Tapwrit and/or No Dozing wins.
If he actually is a Derby horse(a big if) this is probably good for him as it allows him to be rested for the TC. He already ran 8.5 at Tampa Bay downs and set the course record, really no point of doing 8.5 at Tampa Bay a second time in a row.
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