By late closers I mean horses that sit far off the pace and make their move late in the race. The best late closers have lots of stamina and at longer distances have more room to run down the leaders.
When you wait far off the pace you have to remember you're spending less energy than the front runners and thus have more of a final kick than the horses in front of you which in a race is all that matters. So yes you're technically right more distance equals less speed for the end but what really matters is how much speed you have left in the tank relative to the horses you're chasing. Not that Frosted and KI don't have pretty good stamina as well themselves.
Those two races were very early in the year. Upstart was an earlier bloomer than Frosted. Those races were also at a distance(8.5) that favors Upstart over Frosted who's a late closer. While the KD can too wrote off as a fluke the Haskell can't and Upstart despite coming in third got embarrassed by AP and KI in the stretch. If KI can beat you over 9 furlongs going away what makes you think he'll be able to beat him at 10?
Why not just send him to the Pennsylvania Derby where Upstart is good enough to be almost assured either a win or a second? Viorette's already sent Upstart against AP once against a much weaker field and a shorter distance and got disappointing results (we all know the Upstart crew were expecting second) what makes him think he'll do even better or even the same at 10 against a tough field. Last time Upstart ran 10 he ran last. Sometimes I wonder if people only think Upstart has a chance at AP because of his name and how fitting it would be. This isn't a movie, Upstart isn't Upset.
Agree completely. That's the most probable outcome from this race. AP is a world ahead of everyone in this field except Frosted (at 10). In the KD (the only race at 10 either he and AP ever ran)when the race ended Frosted was gaining on Dortmund, FL and AP(All three were on exhaust fumes). Thus the main question of the Travers to me and the reason it's an intriguing race is with a good trip how does Frosted do against AP over 10? Now I'm realistic both of these horses have gotten better since then and in all likelihood AP will be able to hold off Frosted but there's more than an unlikely chance Frosted will be able to at least give AP a fight. Frosted is a far better horse than his record indicates and believing he poses no threat to AP is naïve.
To all those who think TR can beat AP I honestly am confused as IMO TR has given no indications that he can get 10 furlongs (not only against a horse who went 12 in 2.26.65 but closers in Frosted and Keen Ice as well). AP beat him in the Frontrunner by open lengths but that was when they were two my main concern is that Frosted almost beat him at 9 with one show missing. What has TR done to prove he can go 10 furlongs?
After the Alydar it was kind of obvious that he was done. (We should be getting a similar announcement on Bayern any day now). Best of luck to Palice Malice at stud!!
OMG. If you cant make money off a champion who cares. Racing has been waiting for this longer than most of us have been alive and it's a pleasure. You still have the undercard to make money on. I personally never bet on races where a TC is even on the line because in that moment for me I'm just a fan. Sure I'll still handicap the race for fun, have an opinion and make predictions but whenever a TC winner is running I'm not placing any actual cash. There's plenty to be made on the undercard as there usually is but these big days don't come around often let's just enjoy it and put money in the forefront for once.
For clarification I'm not saying that anyone who bets on AP races is wrong that's just my prerogative. What does upset me is that people are angry that they can't make money off AP.
While it's be nice for the fans to see another solid horse in this race Violette knows running in the Travers against AP is not a good decision. This is why right after the Jim Dandy he said he wasn't going to be running against AP. Now with the good post position and him training good of course it's tempting to run but it's still the wrong decision. Upstart was running great before the Haskell and Derby too and look how those races turned out.
While the 18th in the Derby can de discounted as a fluke, some horses have bad days especially running 10 against so many opponents like in the KD. So I believed Upstart would come in second to AP in the Haskell like most did. (Who would think KI would beat Upstart at 9 when that horse has an knack for late closing) Instead what I saw was an all out Upstart in the stretch losing ground to an AP who to put it mildly wasn't all out and get passed by KI. I was very unimpressed and now think of Upstart as an elite winter horse who matured early but has been caught and surpassed by his peers.
The truth of the matter is that Upstart(who is a talented colt ) no doubt at best is the fifth best horse in this race (AP, Frosted,TR, KI maybe Smart Transition) As elhubbo correctly posted Upstart is a top ten three year old but this late in the year when the crop has been decimated by injury that doesn't mean very much. In the Haskell the risk was more worth it because it was probable that Upstart would get second or third while this race has a smaller purse and that same scenario is very unlikely.
I'm going to defend the level of completion AP has faced
Dortmund- Was 6-0 going into the Kentucky Derby including Santa Anita. Had a great times over 8.5 in Los Alamitos and San Felipe. He also beat Firing Line twice pre Derby,
Firing Line Followed up two razor thin losses to Dortmund with a 1.47.39 win over 9 furlongs. Proved he was Dortmund's better over the classic distance in the Derby and came within a length of beating AP.
Frosted Ran the Belmont fast enough to win many other years and besides Firing Line has been the closest to giving AP a challenge. With another 100 yards or so in the Kentucky Derby Frosted might very well have turned a fourth place finish into a win.
Texas Red Won the BC Juvenile beating Carpe Diem and Upstart. Has beaten Frosted(albeit quite luckily IMO)
Calculator ran second to AP twice at two in really fast races( especially the Del Mar Futurity.
I'll give you that the Oaklawn meet competition was weak and so was the Haskell field. Keen Ice(despite being a nice closer) is still a maiden winner only despite being one of the best three year olds in training. Upstart despite beating Frosted twice was an early bloomer who can't beat Keen Ice at 9 furlongs now to save his life. Carpe Diem was also a good horse. The point is AP has faced a dynamic crop.
I never said he would what I have said though is that among this field and what remains of this crop Frosted has the best chance to bring down AP and he has the best chance at 10 furlongs based on his running style.
In all likelihood on Saturday Frosted gets his third straight place but if anyone is going to beat AP in the Travers it's going to be Frosted.
I have to agree with you here. Frosted's record on paper doesn't show the horrible luck he's had since winning the Wood Memorial. In the Derby he had a horrible trip and finished forth and with a few more jumps would have been second and with yet another hundred yards he would have been first (Espinoza himself said AP was empty after the Derby).
In the Belmont AP ran the 12 in 2.26.65. Even so at the top of the stretch Frosted was gaining on AP for a few seconds before AP pushed another button and pulled away for the TC.
In the Jim Dandy despite an unfavorable distance to his closing style and a lost shoe Frosted came within a jump or two of beating TR(who some on this site think can actually beat AP, why I have no idea) If you take away the horrible Derby trip, the lost shoe and AP Frosted is 5-4-0 right now.
You are dead wrong. Besides the KD (which will always be the best three year old field of the year) the Travers will be the most exciting three year old race. Unlike the Haskell which was really just about seeing AP run this field is stacked.
Frosted's only previous run at 10 had him closing fast after a horrible trip. He also finished second in the 2.26.65 Belmont.
Texas Red won the BC juvenile.
KI was closing on AP at the end of the Haskell( I know he was being eased up but he still blew by Upstart) Also closed to almost finish second in that really fast Belmont. Even though KI is best suited for distances that are really not run anymore he will probably be closing to finish this race.
Smart Transition won the Curlin beating among others a very impressive colt named Stanford.
Tale of Verve came in second in the Preakness and if it rains will be right in the thick of things.
Do any of these horses (except Frosted) have a decent chance of beating AP? No. But just because a horse is so good doesn't make the field any weaker.
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