He said (and I'm parapharasing they posted the article on here a few days ago) that they would keep him racing against three year olds "as long as possible'". He also said that the fact the Haskell was a three year old exclusive is the main reason Nyquist is running there. I translate that to mean Haskell, Travers or maybe Haskell, PA Derby(although this isn't AP were he would have a need to wait not to mention it's less money and a G2) The people who think Nyquist is going to the AA are almost surely being just as delusional as they were last year with AP. The PC is probably in play because of the incredible field and the high potential gain if he wins. If he lost to Beholder/ CC/ Dortmund/Melatonin who could really blame him? If he wins people are going to (IMO incorrectly) put him near AP, PG, Ghostzapper territory.
I was referring to the heart breaking photo finish and how that was far worse than any Derby/Preakness winner's defeat. Imagine being unsure if your horse won the TC for five minutes after that excruciating stretch where the horse was so close to the wire.
Couldn't agree more. If Pegram could take the Belmont loss like a professional after Real Quiet or Chapman could after the other jockeys conspired to ruin Smarty's bid, Coburn should have done the same. To make it worse he had the arrogance to think the system should be changed because horses couldn't win the TC with horses skipping part of the series when all 11 TC winners won their titles under those same conditions. Happy he's out of the picture.
Nyquist's Preakness loss was flukey. The reason Gun Runner has a chance against Nyquist at 10 is all Gun Runner. If Gun Runner could handle 9 in the Derby the way he did, with the pace as fast as it was, as early in his development as he was, I truly think he's got a shot against Nyquist.
Don't think his 100% will improve(he was a quick developer)but Dortmund wasn't at his best in the San Diego and I think at 8.5 or 9 his 100% beats CC's. 10 I give the edge to CC though (although it's possible that Derby gassing was due to his intense campaign prior to the Derby rather than inability to get 10)
The opinions the Chromies have will shape around whatever makes CC sound better. My favorite is how apparently Dortmund was at 95% but CC was at 85%.
I agree breeders focus on two and three year old acheivments more than older horse racing, however the TC or even the Derby is very optimistic. Most breeders focus on horses having short, successful careers so they can flip them for breeding profit(and other breeders can flip their offspring for profit and so on).
Keep in mind that with the Haskell we're talking 9 furlongs and Gun Runner up to that point was a match for Nyquist. Also Gun Runner has probably developed since then more than Nyquist, who was a relatively early bloomer. Nyquist should be favored but Gun Runner is a legit threat.
Whatever his chances of winning the Travers, his chances of winning the PC are far worse. Nyquist might be a better three year old than CC but CC is a fully developed five year old. Beholder and Dortmund(if he runs) are also fully developed. Nyquist's chances of victory against that field are slim. Meanwhile in the Travers he'll be facing mostly peers who he has already beaten at 10. If we're going by trends, things also didn't look good for him winning the Derby as a BCJ winner. O Neill also said in his interview he's going to keep him in three year old exclusives as long as possible which basically means he won't be facing olders until after the Travers most likely.
Copyright © 2010 -
other passionate horse racing fans!