Well the final times are that of the winners, so that's what I'm saying. It's also just not about pure field quality but the quality of the race that actually got ran for example in the BCC, Frosted didn't show up despite being a valuable addition to the field, in the BCDM, Dortmund and Gun Runner simply performed much worse then they typically did start by start in 2016, in the BCD, Stellar Wind had a bad start and was out of the race from the beginning while in her previous two races she beat the winner of the BCD. So yes in practice the fields had a bad day while on paper they were pretty darn good. These fields were great but ALOT of great horses from 2016 had their worst day in the BCC. Heck Tamurkuz beat Dortmund and Gun Runner.
So I will say that alot of horses had bad days.
Yes, I am saying that. First off sub 2.00 10's are much more common at SA then other tracks. If Arrogate had ran a faster raw time by a bit than AP then the argument he ran faster would be there but AP has the fastest raw time(by a very slow margin) and he was on the slower track so unless Keeneland is faster than SA(which just isn't true).
The difference between the fast and slow tracks in the US are at most probably about 2 seconds first of, no one said they were that radically different but in terms of comparing close times that matters. Also Tamarkuz ran slow mile so why should Songbird beating him out matter, that doesn't mean she ran a fast mile? Finishing 1.36 was unexpected but you after Runhappy you had Dortmund and Gun Runner try to sit on the pace and slow it down which they did and both gassed unexpicably throwing in clunkers which allowed Tamurkuz a horse who probably wasn't worthy as a BC winner to win that race.
After setting your own fractions like that, finishing in 13 flat is just bad for a Breeders cup race especially for 9 this wasn't even 10 furlongs.
I think that the horses that AD beat in the Florida Derby are his biggest threats in the Kentucky Derby with the possible exception of LAL. I'm convinced State of Honour and Gunnevera win any of the other preps minus the Sunland.
In the BCD, Stellar Wind was out of the race the moment it began she was walking out of the gate. Also Songbird set her own really slow pace and couldn't close against Beholder and she basically walked home in the stretch who despite winning the Eclipse was kind of off form in 2016 versus 2015. Seeing how SW looked like she wanted more distance in her 2 8.5 wins against Beholder I think it is not a radical inference to make that Stellar Wind would have fared better against Songbird than Beholder did(which of course means she wins). So no, I think Stellar Wind should be seen as the best female horse in the country and I also think Songbird should be seen as overrated because she faced awful competition and beat them in awful times(versus a female prodigy like Ruffian for example who had incredible times) and then her first time facing an elite horse at 9 with a perfect pace setup she lost.
Exactly, if incredible times were the default whenver G1 horses were around wouldn't they cease to be incredible?
Well that was just the way it played out. CC did the same strategy in the PC, so did Songbird. BCDM was the only one where the pace structure was bizarre because Runhappy set a fast 4 and the next leaders all tried to slow it down.
I think competition wise it can be made, I think timewise it just can't be(unless you're a believer in speed figures).
I can't in good conscience pick him to win, but I believe if his trip isn't horrible he will be in the superfecta at the very least.
Well with CC(not California Chrome lol damm haven't used that abbreviation in a while) out of the Derby at least now he'll get a chance one which he most certainly deserved!
Firing Line holds the Sunland Derby record, all his other stakes at three he was a runner up to Dortmund(including a race where Dortmund set a TR), AP or ran into a sloppy track in the Preakness. He was never the same when he came back.
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