I've settled on Revolutionary, but I'm shocked that as the fourth choice in the morning line he's likely be the post-time favorite. Just in case, I've got a saver on Vyjack. who's at 26-1. He romped in the slop at Aqueduct. If all else fails, I have Overanalyze from the first Futures pool at 33-1. May the best horse win.
Zipse is the only voter who lists Vyjack (for 3rd). If the track comes up sloppy, Vyjack cannot be overlooked. He's one of just two entries with a slop win; the other is Itsmyluckyday, who won an off-the-turf 5f stakes last August at Calder. Vyjack won a 7f stakes race by 6 lengths at Aqueduct in December. There have been only 5 derbies in the past 25 years run on a sloppy or muddy track. All but one of the winners had previously won in the slop.
Florida Filly--You need to look again at Black Onyx's PPs. He's raced on fast tracks in all of his dirt races.
Nice rundown on the contenders. I wouldn't be so critical of Pletcher's Dy Derby record, though. He's had 31 entries, true. But they were in 12 derbies. Barring the unlikely and unprecedented dead heat in the Derby, only one horse can win the race. So I'd say that Pletcher is 1 for 12, which isn't great, but it isn't bad compared to many other top trainers.
From the Department of Historical Handicapping: I've got to throw out Orb and Verrazano because no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby after leading the Derby points standings. :-)
buds--You said "I for one was shocked that he passed and held off Flashback, whom I considered a horse that could run 9+ furlongs." So he held off a horse that you considered to be a 9f+ horse and you STILL have questions about his ability? There was nothing in Goldencents' performance that indicated he can't go further. His breeding is a question, though.
Kentucky Derby: Krigger blasts Goldencents out of the gate; gets a clear lead over Govenor Charlie and Verrazano after a half mile in 46.4; holds off Orb and Revolutionary at the wire. First back-to-back Derby wins for a trainer since Baffert in '97 and '98.
Travel Vic--Please explain the "sustained/presser profile".
ToTravel Vic: It may be irrelevant to you, but can you provide any historical data to support a pace argument/criteria?
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