Merit Man is a pure sprinter, but trainer Hess sent him in Florida Derby, look what he did led all the way and placed third? he indeed did 2 turns??
in my opinion Javier Castellano made the right decision, i also thik that REvolutionary can not win the derby from off space, that's why i think he has a chance to beat this time Verrazani
i am not fan of Goldencents, but one can not say that he can not win the derby because of pedigree does not indicate any good stamina sire or styer, i completely disagree, in his blood there is a sire who ran upto 1-1/4 miles and placed 2nd in 1988 derby behind Alyseba, he might not win the derby but in this year most of the derby prep's timing were beyond 1.50.27, only Goldencents had 1-48.26, 2 second difference, and i think it is too much, 2 seconds mean 10-12 lengths advantage, on the contrary Into Mischief might be a 7 furlonger, but he was very strong and stamina minded horse, trained by Mandella, last year in the derby those horse came within 6th placing order had a timings in 1-1/8 miles below 1-50 sec, those horse had over 1-50 second timing in the derby prepssis not success, timing plays a great role same as pedigree, workout, trainer and jockey, Goldencents might not be a super horse but he beat a very good horse Flashback in S.A. Derby, i will give Goldencents credit for that, he survive 2 turns in S.A. Derby, so there is no reason why he will not survive 1-1/4 miles? i will not ignore his timing in S.A.Derby?
this year most of the derby preps 1-1/8 miles races have slow timing except the timing of Santa Anita Derby, it is very strange to me? it shows that Gldencents to be very fast horse?
Revolutionery eventually will be in my list instead of Lines of battle?
by the way Derby Points leader do'nt mean anything? simple look the pedigree, performances, judge stamina of the horse, speed and workouts, obvious, trainer and jockey play part of the role,there is many more things involve to select the good horse and that is my secret!
i do not take any advise from anyone, i select my horses based on my 55 years in this business and i have enough knowledge to handicape horses, i am that good find the good horse with good price, so here i give my opoinion only,when i play it is my money and i play what is best for me, i do'nt care what rest of the world thinks? good luck to everybody for there endeveour!
I was in England for 5 years during mid 1960, and what i have learned that England have best through bred horses in the world, most of the best sires from England have sold to America, i can named some of the horses when i was in England, like Petingo, Ribot, Mill Reef, Vaguly Noble, Nijinsky, etc.
whoever was commented on me about I'll Have Another, it is my reply to him , that it is me who select I'll Have Another for Kentucky Derby, 2012 and had a bet of $100.00 at 15/1 shot to win along with $1.00 trifecta and superfecta, i got the trifecta bit missed the superfecta because my selected horse for 4th place Creative Cause came 5th position, i invested $60.00 in trifecta and $120.00 in superfecta, it did,nt stopped me to back I'll Have Another to bet him In the Preakness Stakes, and i got straight win, trifecta and superfecta in the preakness, but i forecast before Belmont Stakes that there will be no Triple Crown in this year simple because I'l Have Another could,nt able to win Belmont, my selection was Union Rags and Paynter, then i found out that I'll Have Another was withdrawn from Belmont because of injury . it did'nt shocked me, my plan was to bet Union Rags and Paynter both horses .
I have aknowledged of Black Caviar's performances but i am not so deeply involved in his career.
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