I liked reading this analysis. At first glance seeing Songandaprayer in the mix I immediately think "done by the head of the stretch in Louisville". However the other influences Laura points out say I better look deeper. I am not yet sure what SoCal has this year for the Derby but it will be interesting. I always lean to horses on dirt with high cruising ability. Betting on a deep closer who is weaving an bobbing thru a full Derby field can give a gambler ulcers.
I am not overly enamored with Shagaf for the Roses. Two months out so much can still change. Why does the 2 YO "racing" foundation appear to be so important. You would think a couple months of galloping/training as a 2 YO then three preps as a 3 YO would set them up for a run if the pre-requisite talent is built in. History tells us otherwise. The scoreboard shows History well ahead of DAVIDM9999.
I am glad the classy Flintshire is coming simply because the division has not been deep over the past few seasons. I do think Divisdero may develop into a real good one with some ground and assuming soundness. I realize pace can be non-existent in Europe but in NY racing it has become a problem too. Too many NY jocks snatch and strangle on grass so you have 50 second plus half miles repeatedly.Turf races can often resemble a shootout in NASCAR with 2F sprints to wire. If Flintshire thinks he is getting sub 48's Juddmonte had better start looking for a rabbit like Ken Ramsay did.
Cathryn Sophia is an exciting filly. She moves easy winning seemingly without effort. I do like her to stretch out kindly with Mineshaft influences. It would be nice if she can challenge Songbird. Songbird has been special so far but blow out wins at 1-9 odds will get a bit old midway thru 2016. We do like to the see the best pushed to their best a few times. I think Street Boss is underrated as a sire. We often judge sires solely by distance and the classics.He drops quality winners and is a value at his stud fee.
I do like the pedigree potential for staying in the classic distances. Deep closers tend to break me from a gambling perspective. A lot hasto happen for them to win races. In a 20 horse rodeo I like to be mid-pack forward. Cleverly named dam….. Uchitel.
Lisa 111 – wow did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed
or not yet have your morning triple latte? I have no idea what the real
difference is between Reines and Rain but I found Laurie’s article a good read.
I especially like the Outlook summary. She gives a firm opinion that many folks
shrink from in the writing biz these days. She says the horse is a miler and not a KY Derby material. I agree. Reine is forecast here in Indiana. Bring your umbrella.
I always liked Arch as sire. I tend to play his offspring on
grass first out and at a distance of ground. He is versatile though with both
dirt and turf runners. It does not seem like it has been that long since he was
on the race track. Thanks for the picture of Touch Gold losing to Arch at KEE.
I vaguely remember getting that one backwards. I enjoyed your analysis. That is quite a pedigree you listed.
It is comforting to see you are a voter Laurie. I know you put the time working in the industry, following the sport religiously and take it the voting seriously.
Several of these categories can be viewed as photo finishes. I thought Liam's Map ran the better race than Honor Code even in defeat at SAR. I certainly think he was the superior animal but I have heard persuasive cases for Honor Code.
Stellar Wind over I'm a Chatterbox is another tight race. I am biased but thought Chatterbox was robbed of a G1 in the DQ at SAR. Without questionable stewards intervention she would be the year end award winner without discussion. Trainer Larry Jones should get an Eclipse for Class Shown in Defeat.
Stellar Wind ran bigger on the BC stage but was setup for it with a light summer/fall campaign, Chatterbox had to be primed 100% in her BC "prep" in the Cotillion to ensure a valuable G1 win. Stellar Wind already had G1 much earlier at SA so she could be pointed more specifically to the BC. Both are good fillies in a year where the crop was a bit weak. I thought Big Blue Kitten was a head better than Pizza Man but certainly both of those are close. The division stunk when compared to the world players.
Great article. This is a filly I have followed. My friends and I bet her win/place and in horizontals in her debut that day at 55-1. After the horrible debut trip it was evident some ability was present so I followed her. I was on her again when the tough DQ occurred. Hopefully she has a long and productive career.
I am glad you have a system you are comfortable with. One
size does not fit all though when it comes to betting your own dollars. So what you do is not my particular way. I did not play this year’s KY Derby. I like to have two things present to gamble; opportunity and opinion. The Derby pool offered opportunity for sure but I had no strong opinion. I was not willing to take a low number on AP in a 19-20 horse rodeo and if it was not him it could have been anyone of 6 or 7 others. I did play a turf race on the undercard where I had a strong opinion and was offered 8-1. I enjoy your confidence and wish you the best this year. You can have the last word.
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