How does NowNowNow beat Gio Ponti who at overlaid odds in that inaugural running?
This was a wide open race to say the least. Most of us had to go deep in our race selections in playing horizontally. Laura cold decked the exacta in one of most contentious races of the KEE meet. Wonderful handicapping using all the factors that Laura knows so well. HRN and its readers are blessed to have her analyze these races. Superb job!
Excellent recap and a very interesting read. Earning those seven figure yearling sales prices back on the race track is an “Everestian” uphill battle even in an era
of supersized purses. I can understand the breeders are looking for the next AP
Indy or Storm Cat. Those are few and far between. Hats off to those that find the next super sire. The pricey females with classy pedigrees can deliver value back as broodmares or in broodmare sales.
I agree with your summary of the typical stakes winning range. Personally I think you can get a race horse with solid confirmation and pedigree in the $100,000 range. At KEE most of the first few days are chock full of deep pockets. After their Lear jets leave Bluegrass Airport and you get into “Books 2-3” then some realistic pricing is available. I would rather take my shot with five $200,000 animals than one $1M purchase. As for handicapping I tend to utilize work reports on maidens more than purchase prices. I am not inspired to run to the windows when I see $750,000 price tags. A super low sales figure for example say like $10,000 and at a fraction of a stud fee do give me some pause however. Then I double back to the workout reports.
2015 may not be a superior year for 3 YO fillies but it is contentious. The fillies seem to be trading punches with a different winner each and every race. I said here earlier I thought I’m a Chatterbox was a better filly than Curalina in the Alabama. I bet it that way and lost. Just like my large win bet went on the ground in the CCA on that borderline DQ. I still believe Chatterbox is right there if not the best of the class in 2015 but you must win these marquee races and it be declared official. After a while you simply run out of excuses… trip in Oaks, activist steward intervention in CCA, a lone quality F to catch in Alabama, yada yada. Champions just win regardless while some horses seem to find ways to lose close. Hopefully Chatterbox earns that G1 win. Trainer Larry Jones has been classy as always win, lose or DQ. He knows she is overdue.
I see Hip 91 was an RNA at $190,000. You would think a War Front out of G1 Malibu Moon would bring more than that. Interested to see if it was confirmation or something else.
I really enjoy these annual updates of the sales that you do
each year. What a list of pedigrees! The usual deep pockets will be drooling over
Hip 91 War Front/Ask the Moon I am interested in. The dam won the Ruffian Stakes one summer day when my friend had the ML favorite. She had been recent claim for $75k into Marty Wolfson’s barn. He was well known for “major form improvements” of this kind.She won it easily at about 20-1. I was disappointed post race while at SAR but you must accept the results when the light says official. She ran another big race after that also so it was no fluke. AtM was sold for $1.8M in foal to this War Front in November 2013. I would not touch the colt for the price she would bring but hopefully he works out for the new connections.
So far I have not been blown away by the colts. Nyquist
looks good but certainly appears to have two turn distance limitations if you
consider his pedigree that you listed well. But some horse simply out run their genes. I suspect some solid juvenile runners are waiting in the wings. I may be in the minority on HRN but I see Scat Daddy doing solid work especially considering his moderate stud pricing and likely book of mares. I play them regularly on grass.
Nice list and very useful recap for players. Seems like a bit of a light year for influential new sires but time will tell. I have cashed a few on Twirling Candy's. Uncle Mo's seems to have opened up some daylight early. The Lonhro's have been hard for me to get a handle. I bet on them they are MIA, leave them out and a couple have showed run. I thought his would be best on grass but saw one on dirt look good.
How does Flintshire lose in his spot? Winner of over $5M, massive class drop, weight off, etc. He is supposed to win assuming a clean trip and a non-Jamie Spencer rider. Obviously he has many seconds but running second to Treve is like beating Big Blue Kitten and Slumber by open lengths. So not all runnerup finishes are created equal. Single confidently.
In an earlier post I said I’m a Chatterbox was superior to Curlina in the CCA. That was poorly worded but it is posted and out there. No “do overs’ in the Blogoshphere. Obviously with a nose separating the two fillies no one was superior that day. I do think it can be helpful to flip the normal perspective
a bit. I see a lot of posts about Chatterbox brushing causing Curlina to not go by. Just for arguments sakes what happens if CB does not hop switching leads from tracks, noise or exhaustion off the layoff and runs straight. To my eye she wins… barely. So there are two dynamics in play. Some are focusing only on the Curlina view. In full disclosure I had a large win bet on CB but after 40+ years of gambling I would like to think I am still capable of fair assessment of the race even though
that earlier post was not my best. Money comes and goes. It is official you move on. I have no idea who will be superior today if either of them. Let’s hope for a good race that is cleanly run and decided on the track.
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