I like this colt, but he's been slow to develop, yet all along with his turf breeding staring anyone who wants to look in the face, I thought after the great looking LS win, where he finished so well, the timing might be right to just see if he might be better suited to the turf. If he were to move up 10 points he'd be a major player in every important 3yo turf stake, perhaps following in the footsteps of his uncle, Kitten's Joy (the best 3yo turf colt in a generation, if not more).
This is what Gary Stevens, Firing Line's jockey, said about AP last year when AP's scratch for the BC was announced: “I’ve watched this horse and it’s like a 4-year-old against 2-year-olds,” said Gary Stevens, the Hall of Fame jockey. “Or maybe it’s like a pro basketball player against high school kids. He has beautiful
action, but also the intelligence to go with that athleticism.”
Firing Line and Stevens have been head and head with Dort and are coming off a stakes record in the Sunland Derby. I will be very curious how he rides FL in the big race, many assume he will gun for the lead, but I'm not sure that gives him his best chance to hit the board. I could see him trying to stalk and finish. I'm going to have to begrudgingly include him in my underneaths, because of his intimate knowledge of Dort and AP.
why do you hate baffert? seems like a good guy to me, granted I don't know him personally
interesting, those could be landing spots for Miss Temple City, also, depending upon how Motion wants to set-up the rematch. I would expect both to run solidly with the added distance. Thanks, much appreciated.
do you know what the distances of those races are? thanks
I mentioned Miss Temple City prior to the race as one not to sleep on and she provided a nice exacta return when she outgamed Sunset Glow for the 2nd spot (even as Rosario did everything in his power to prevent this from happening, including twice forcing Valenzuela to redirect his filly in the final 1/16th). Sunset Glow does not want to go this far, which obviously limits her on this continent. Lady Eli should be able to stretch out beyond the mile and there is no doubt that Miss Temple City would be best served going 1/8th mile further, at least. She was much closer to the pace than she wants to be, but this was a smart tactical decision to give her a shot at 2nd. Like Lady Eli, her best races are very much in front of her.
what's scary, to me, about him as that he won the wood so easily, in hand, never asked, that's exactly how you want a horse entering the derby (or any race)
if you like upstart shouldn't you be looking at Materiality, who trounced him after a 5f match race
so far - that's the point of Saturday, perhaps? I have no idea. I don't know why Z is in there. It's pointless.
Pretend AP isn't running and if you want to play FFO to "win" all you have to do is play the exacta straight AP to FFO and the odds on the board for FFO will be right in line with what your exacta payoff will be. If you want to get bold and play an "exacta" use the same model with the trifecta wager, placing AP on top and then your play. The exactas with odds-on horses typically pay whatever the odds are to win on the underneath horse, so if he's 6-1 the $2 exacta will pay $12. I have played $100, $200 exactas this way if I really like a certain horse outside the most likely winner. It's a great way to get value in these types of races. Often in these types of races a super longshot runs 2nd and people always scratch their heads. The reason this happens is because the lower odds horses actually try to win instead of focusing on running 2nd and when they run into the buzzsaw odds-on horse they fold more badly than usual because their efforts are so trying.
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