Divine Dawn should run well on cutback in Miss Preakness. My close friend owns her and is taking the same path that worked with his G1 winning Wildcat Bettie B. WBB could fly on front or close from back. Divine Dawn has always been highly regarded by the masterful Larry Jones. He knows quality and DD has some. The barn is certainly loaded but the thinking is DD wants shorter rather than longer. In the Beaumont she was used throughout to hold the rail position versus a Baffert runner. She paid for that late with Ella winning after an ideal trip. I am hoping DD goes off 5-1+.
No criticism was intended just noting the obvious in the article. In fact I mentioned I see it much the same way as Brian. I often expect experts to deliver an out of the box pick even if it is an under only. Sometimes you simply cannot manufacture a long shot that is non-existant. It may be as simple as AP, Diem Dortmund and an Upstart. I don't see Upstart as a rank outsider especially in the exotics. 2015 is an exceptional year for 3 YO's in my opinion. As for as my top picks - Diem and AP. Nothing earth moving.
Unfortunately it seems the Big Six would be better named as Top Six ML favorites or Six Chalks. In 2015 we are seeing a wave of Derby group think from writers and experts. I too see it much that way myself. Over the past 40 years of gambling one trend. I have noticed is when the pari-mutuel train gets overloaded with group thinkers chaos happens. Last Saturday with the Rainbow at GP about 90% of the expert selections included the same few horses. 79 seconds into the Rainbow all those tickets crashed and burned.
This is very interesting. I like non-traditional viewpoints rather than down the middle of fairway type articles. Well done AGAIN Laura.
Nice horse with suitable running style for a potential speed crazed Derby. He will have to find lengths in my opinion. I tend to root for Kiaran McLaughlin.
Can do a pedigree analysis for Huey Mahl?
I enjoy these insightful and totally frank pedigree analyses.
Most articles on other sites just recant already well publicized information.
Laura is not afraid to take a stand in her outlook section. I certainly appreciate that. Not sure when Travel Vic is planning to come
with his inside MENSA perspective on the KY Derby. I suspect it might be May 3rd.
Looks like several Blame colt's on the list. With his two year olds he has been hit/miss for me in terms of wagering. Probably better longer. I particularly like Vici and Exodus. I suspect a few of these are going to stars in 2015. Great piece.
I too was on Top Decile in the BC.
What about the undefeated Divine Dawn and Larry Jones? She won MSW in debut at KEE in sharp time with 79 BSF. Then stretched out on the FG turf when dirt races did not fill. Although not particularly bred for grass (Divine Park) she won on class rather well defeating a next out Catalano winner Bossy. She has a ton of talent and can run a bit so watch for her at a bit of a price. The race is likely not as simple as the two marquee names you chose to highlight.
Different strokes I suppose. I do look at them especially if I see a big positive or negative. It is another bit of information to process. I assume that is why they show them. The race itself carries the most weight but in this case the gallop out was a negative IMO. Sure Todd is no dummy. He will give the horse recovery time. A very hard race on a lightly raced animal can be a drain. My position is the gallop out was dictated by the fact the horse was spent at the wire not Johnny V or Bocachica on Valid hitting the brakes. You just see it differently.
I don’t have a crystal ball but if you don’t think Liam will take a ton of cash against anybody,even a grade 1, then I cannot say anything to change your mind. We do agree an overlay could be 9/5 if his real chances are 4/5. No experienced gambler would recommend playing a no shot horse at 25-1 against Liam just because the long number. Obviously you have to subjectively assess his chance in your opinion versus the odds available. We can see how the next start goes. In the right spot, with right price and against right group I may consider him myself but only after factoring in this was a gut wrencher and the come home per charts was 31.97.
You can have the last word. Good dialogue. Thanks for your
insights as always.
In fairness I did give credit to the race being quick and highly rated. I also knew any comment outside a “coronation” would be considered nit picking hence my last line of the post. However, do you agree the gallop out was stunningly weak? Personally
I have not seen a stakes winning horse so exhausted recently. I do applaud the big
race ran by Liam who could still be developing. Those two points are obvious. My
other angle was the play back in next start and is there an opportunity for a
contrarian opinion. If he surfaces in the Donn or 9F In New Orleans he could be an underlay off that taxing effort. Maybe not too as that is one thing that makes this sport so great. Opinions backed by cash. I do feel bettors will be mesmerized by the 111 BSF and Todd.
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