Lisa 111 – wow did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed
or not yet have your morning triple latte? I have no idea what the real
difference is between Reines and Rain but I found Laurie’s article a good read.
I especially like the Outlook summary. She gives a firm opinion that many folks
shrink from in the writing biz these days. She says the horse is a miler and not a KY Derby material. I agree. Reine is forecast here in Indiana. Bring your umbrella.
I always liked Arch as sire. I tend to play his offspring on
grass first out and at a distance of ground. He is versatile though with both
dirt and turf runners. It does not seem like it has been that long since he was
on the race track. Thanks for the picture of Touch Gold losing to Arch at KEE.
I vaguely remember getting that one backwards. I enjoyed your analysis. That is quite a pedigree you listed.
It is comforting to see you are a voter Laurie. I know you put the time working in the industry, following the sport religiously and take it the voting seriously.
Several of these categories can be viewed as photo finishes. I thought Liam's Map ran the better race than Honor Code even in defeat at SAR. I certainly think he was the superior animal but I have heard persuasive cases for Honor Code.
Stellar Wind over I'm a Chatterbox is another tight race. I am biased but thought Chatterbox was robbed of a G1 in the DQ at SAR. Without questionable stewards intervention she would be the year end award winner without discussion. Trainer Larry Jones should get an Eclipse for Class Shown in Defeat.
Stellar Wind ran bigger on the BC stage but was setup for it with a light summer/fall campaign, Chatterbox had to be primed 100% in her BC "prep" in the Cotillion to ensure a valuable G1 win. Stellar Wind already had G1 much earlier at SA so she could be pointed more specifically to the BC. Both are good fillies in a year where the crop was a bit weak. I thought Big Blue Kitten was a head better than Pizza Man but certainly both of those are close. The division stunk when compared to the world players.
Great article. This is a filly I have followed. My friends and I bet her win/place and in horizontals in her debut that day at 55-1. After the horrible debut trip it was evident some ability was present so I followed her. I was on her again when the tough DQ occurred. Hopefully she has a long and productive career.
I am glad you have a system you are comfortable with. One
size does not fit all though when it comes to betting your own dollars. So what you do is not my particular way. I did not play this year’s KY Derby. I like to have two things present to gamble; opportunity and opinion. The Derby pool offered opportunity for sure but I had no strong opinion. I was not willing to take a low number on AP in a 19-20 horse rodeo and if it was not him it could have been anyone of 6 or 7 others. I did play a turf race on the undercard where I had a strong opinion and was offered 8-1. I enjoy your confidence and wish you the best this year. You can have the last word.
Fun to read the comparison and recognize some similarities. I liked the dam of Mohaymen. She could run. I like your point about the colt going thru a narrow opening. Not all will. Laurie is not saying Mohaymen will win the Derby but only at this point has the look of a serious contender fully realizing it is early with so many talented colts just beginning to work and debut.
Some of the accompanying posts are seemingly focused on trainers not horses. I understand in horse racing it is "to each his own". I tend to handicap horses more than trainers. In days gone by, at least for me, it worked very well. Just locate a live looking horse regardless of connections. However today is a new day in horse gambling. Again only in my eyes, horse racing is becoming increasingly trainer centric. Super trainers winning 35% off claims with huge performance improvements are every day occurrences. We apparently have dozens of up and coming Woody Stephen's and Charlie Whittingham's. It does make the sport a bit more difficult. I have to adjust or find another sport.
Cases can be pro or con. I don't think one race necessarily decides a championship when there was months of racing to consider AND especially when neither animal actually WON the "deciding" race. So I am looking at complete body of work not what happens with a rail draw in Distaff. Chatterbox faced tougher in the east.Then Chatterbox's connections went all in getting the G1 in Cotillion at PARX (pre-BC) while Wind's connection decided to take the easy prep in G3 Torrey Pine. They had that luxury since they won a G1 earlier in SA Oaks. It likely set up Wind for a better effort than Chatterbox. No excuses as she was entered and fizzled. No doubt Wind ran bigger at right moment. I simply believe the highly questionable SAR DQ is the only reason this is even a discussion topic. I have watched it many times. Curlina was not going by either way but that is just my opinion. Either way the honors go 2015 will not be considered a "stellar" year for 3 YO fillies.
I think this division will be a photo finish after a non-definitive year by all the logical contenders. I thought I'm a Chatterbox was the best all year although she did not bring her best on October 30. She was dominant all winter at the FG in a graded series known to produce quality. She was beaten in the KY Oaks when receiving a strange trip. Her loss in the prestigious CCA Oaks was as bad a beat as a horse could experience. Steward intervention with that singular decision had more impact on divisional honors than the BC Distaff. She was later dominant at PARX in the important Cotillion. She likely was geared up to the max there to win the all important G1. So she crossed the finish line twice in grade ones, and was never worse than third outside the BC in a campaign that included the top races. Stellar Wind won a single grade one. True she finished ahead of Chatterbox in the Distaff but behind her in the Oaks. In fairness her trip was not ideal either in the Oaks. Stellar Wind prepped earlier in the weak Torrey Pine rather than face the division's best in the Cotillion. That strategy worked as she was primed for the BC. I prefer Chatterbox's year and body of work to Stellar Wind but it is by a nose.
What are the specific criteria that is used to determine graded status? Not sure I have ever seen it listed. That assumes there is a specific list of criteria. Is it historic significance, what horses do after they leave a certain race, how many prior stakes winners are entered? If Pletcher, Baffert and Brown enter multiple horses is it a G1?? Just kiddin' but you get the drift. The fillies running at FG have certainly distinguished themselves more the colts in recent times. I agree with be082 on this not all grade ones are created equal.
Good piece Laura. We all hope AP will be a success. I hope Coolmore will keep his book to a reasonable size. I think he could produce some good turf horses also but only time will tell. Living up to his racetrack performance in the breeding shed is a heavy burden though. I enjoyed reading the Taylor Made assessment of AP as a yearling.
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