Last year this was a weak renewal and not sure this year looks that much more promising. 2013 was an absolute staggerfest late with the Ria A past the wire move up. Puca is interesting with a family that can route. Expecting downward tote movement with that one. Conquest should cover the ground without issue. As to experts that “eat chalk” – it applies to many including Mike Battaglia but not fair to paint Laura with that brush. I am going Puca and Conquest while hoping SA is not a NHRA surface. Good luck to all.
I get your point Andy but when Verazanno went to Aidan O'Brien earlier did the USA consider him European or American. I suspect the latter.
I like the in depth analysis on this race. Seems wide open as usual with many inexperienced fillies. For the top slots I tend to lean to Fashion Alert with inside speed and exiting America's toughest circuit, Taylor S with off track pedigree and impressive crush job in debut and blue blood Gap Year despite tough post . The latter two will offer better value.
Enjoyed the analysis and stroll thru history. The BC juvie fillies
have been superb over the years. This was a fun read. Thanks for the video
links too. I simply love viewing old BC races.
The Pharoah ruled in the Futurity. The blinkers off seemed to do the trick. We need to see if he can back it up on dirt but he works well on it. I was against Skyway in Futurity. I believe Laura has him judged accurately. Laura also pegged Wake Up Nick in his debut as a quality animal. Well done.
Competitive Edge is currently a man among boys. His races remind
me of watching the Little League World Series. Teams with physically imposing 12 year olds winning. I expect the pack will gain on him as they mature. This happens every year. SAR sprint wins don’t normally translate to Roses in May but the Edge is an impressive juvenile.
If your are serious about racing I strongly recommend the Guide to Freshmen Sires. I purchased it and it already has paid dividends. It will give you an early edge on the herd in betting these juvenile races.
The 2014 Travers sure supplied an exciting finish. Well done
by VE Day, Wicked Strong and trainer Jerkens. Another lesson one can take from
the Travers is projecting fine turf form onto the dirt. I know the pedigree gurus
said Mr. Speaker’s pedigree of Pulpit/Unbridled screamed dirt, he was too close to the pace at GP on
dirt, the trainer said he worked great on the SAR dirt but how many times do we
have to see this over and over. At 7-1
at least his backers got a decent number when losing by 7L. Now back to the turf or poly for the talented
Speaker. He will likely have some very good runs
in the fall turf stakes. I realize there are a few outliers but I have and will
continue to view turf and dirt form as mutually exclusive.
This is shaping up to be a terrific race with many options. As to Mr. Speaker’s breeding Pulpit/Unbridled
normally says dirt & long. However his
sharp HOF connections ran him four times on turf as a young talented horse
before even attempting the dirt. So that tells me they thought he was a turf
horse. They got Derby fever (for 104 seconds) trying the dirt where he ran 7th fading
badly late beaten 10L+. Maybe it was the
ride and he truly was too close to the sun that day. He went to Lasix after that race so throw
that in the tea leaves. He trains great on dirt but how many turf horses train
great on dirt and then run poorly when they are asked for everything. Respectfully
I have to take a negative view on Speaker on dirt. I expect him to play a
little lower than the ML.
Obviously Mr. Speaker is a top class three year old. The
problem is the Travers is run on dirt not grass. The connections have every
right to take another shot on the dirt even though the first effort at GP was
not up to his normal runs. Excuses were
made about the ride that day. Generally every turf horse that runs poorly on
dirt gets a few excuses. The prospect of
a seven figure purse will drive you to rationalize anything. Who knows really
but Shug, who is a master, thinks Speaker will dirt in the afternoon. If he
doesn’t they still have an animal with a ton of ability that can then focus solely
on grass racing. I usually view dirt and turf ability as mutually exclusive at
the elite level of racing. I hope I am wrong and Mr. Speaker does a lot of talking
in the Travers.
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