How does Flintshire lose in his spot? Winner of over $5M, massive class drop, weight off, etc. He is supposed to win assuming a clean trip and a non-Jamie Spencer rider. Obviously he has many seconds but running second to Treve is like beating Big Blue Kitten and Slumber by open lengths. So not all runnerup finishes are created equal. Single confidently.
In an earlier post I said I’m a Chatterbox was superior to Curlina in the CCA. That was poorly worded but it is posted and out there. No “do overs’ in the Blogoshphere. Obviously with a nose separating the two fillies no one was superior that day. I do think it can be helpful to flip the normal perspective
a bit. I see a lot of posts about Chatterbox brushing causing Curlina to not go by. Just for arguments sakes what happens if CB does not hop switching leads from tracks, noise or exhaustion off the layoff and runs straight. To my eye she wins… barely. So there are two dynamics in play. Some are focusing only on the Curlina view. In full disclosure I had a large win bet on CB but after 40+ years of gambling I would like to think I am still capable of fair assessment of the race even though
that earlier post was not my best. Money comes and goes. It is official you move on. I have no idea who will be superior today if either of them. Let’s hope for a good race that is cleanly run and decided on the track.
Chatterbox was superior to Curlina in last regardless of activist steward intervention. Chatterbox was considered best of Jones barn even though Maria won the Oaks. That race result was purely a function of trips. Saying that do any of these want to go 9F in race horse time. The last furlong should be interesting. Not expecting a quick time but certainly a competitive race. Hopefully the stewards let the horses decide it on the track.
Court Vision - I think I still have some pari-mutuel PTSD from his nose win over Tullalure in the BC who I needed badly. Not sure what kind of sire Court Vision will be. I have not played any of them so far. So far its worked 6 out of 7 times.
Owner Ron Paolucci says “You’re fired” more than Donald Trump. I don’t get the man or his methods but if you own them then it is certainly your choice. War Story should be 500-1 or better yet be running for purse money only to protect the long shot betting public from themselves. Paolucci can have another 1:51 in the spotlight. The trouble is Pharaoh will win the Haskell in 1:47 and change.
I salute AP and human connections for showing up at the
Haskell. It should attract throngs of casual race fans and AP fans in general.
After all how often do you get a chance to see a TC winner. So the upside is the horse is still running
but realistically what kind of field will be in the Haskell. Some of the grade
one logicals will go elsewhere like the Jim Dandy or stay out west. We may be left with Keen Ice, Frammento or
Pimento. Sometimes the path of least resistance makes sense so Frosted’s likely
move is smart. With a $1M purse you would think horses would line up to run but
likely a short field of non G1 types will enter the starting gate for the Haskell.
Expect nothing but 1-9 from first click to the last click. I think it will be a
well-attended spectacle but for hard core bettors the 10th at
Saratoga will offer better options. I understand
that on rare occasions the sport can be about something other than betting.
I like what Majesticperfection is doing. Young sire but can
drop sprint, route and turf. Underrated in my opinion as a young sire.
These are potent and real angles that should be considered
in assessing maidens. Do they all hold every race No. But I try to process as
much of it as possible then assess the tote board for misalignment with my opinion.
Some of this information takes effort to find so it may not be a walk in the
park. Many handicappers just want to bet on proven horses that have proven form.
It can be easier. I have found the reward is high on maidens when you are
Easy Goer – I follow Laura closely. I find her selections
extremely credible. She is often not mainstream though so don’t expect a Mike
Battaglia chalk over chalk over chalk over chalk superfecta. Putting your picks
out there for the world is a game changer. Try it yourself for say a year. Then
let’s see if you still have the same opinion. Maybe you will but I am betting
I enjoyed the straightforward manner of the article. Pedigree
from two perspectives – Breeding and handicapping. Personally I tend to focus on the latter. Seeing it broken down into the basics is helpful. I also think it is useful to see the listing of information sources. Players today need access to many tools. The days of picking up a DRF as you walk into the track are long over. Doing your homework and understanding all the elements that makea winner are part of the successful modern day handicapper. I am not sure be082 is espousing but from what I read I am more than glad to wager against him. Ask Mr. Zayat how good his inside information was when he was allegedly accumulating millions in debts to bookies.
Divine Dawn should run well on cutback in Miss Preakness. My close friend owns her and is taking the same path that worked with his G1 winning Wildcat Bettie B. WBB could fly on front or close from back. Divine Dawn has always been highly regarded by the masterful Larry Jones. He knows quality and DD has some. The barn is certainly loaded but the thinking is DD wants shorter rather than longer. In the Beaumont she was used throughout to hold the rail position versus a Baffert runner. She paid for that late with Ella winning after an ideal trip. I am hoping DD goes off 5-1+.
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