Looks like several Blame colt's on the list. With his two year olds he has been hit/miss for me in terms of wagering. Probably better longer. I particularly like Vici and Exodus. I suspect a few of these are going to stars in 2015. Great piece.
I too was on Top Decile in the BC.
What about the undefeated Divine Dawn and Larry Jones? She won MSW in debut at KEE in sharp time with 79 BSF. Then stretched out on the FG turf when dirt races did not fill. Although not particularly bred for grass (Divine Park) she won on class rather well defeating a next out Catalano winner Bossy. She has a ton of talent and can run a bit so watch for her at a bit of a price. The race is likely not as simple as the two marquee names you chose to highlight.
Different strokes I suppose. I do look at them especially if I see a big positive or negative. It is another bit of information to process. I assume that is why they show them. The race itself carries the most weight but in this case the gallop out was a negative IMO. Sure Todd is no dummy. He will give the horse recovery time. A very hard race on a lightly raced animal can be a drain. My position is the gallop out was dictated by the fact the horse was spent at the wire not Johnny V or Bocachica on Valid hitting the brakes. You just see it differently.
I don’t have a crystal ball but if you don’t think Liam will take a ton of cash against anybody,even a grade 1, then I cannot say anything to change your mind. We do agree an overlay could be 9/5 if his real chances are 4/5. No experienced gambler would recommend playing a no shot horse at 25-1 against Liam just because the long number. Obviously you have to subjectively assess his chance in your opinion versus the odds available. We can see how the next start goes. In the right spot, with right price and against right group I may consider him myself but only after factoring in this was a gut wrencher and the come home per charts was 31.97.
You can have the last word. Good dialogue. Thanks for your
insights as always.
In fairness I did give credit to the race being quick and highly rated. I also knew any comment outside a “coronation” would be considered nit picking hence my last line of the post. However, do you agree the gallop out was stunningly weak? Personally
I have not seen a stakes winning horse so exhausted recently. I do applaud the big
race ran by Liam who could still be developing. Those two points are obvious. My
other angle was the play back in next start and is there an opportunity for a
contrarian opinion. If he surfaces in the Donn or 9F In New Orleans he could be an underlay off that taxing effort. Maybe not too as that is one thing that makes this sport so great. Opinions backed by cash. I do feel bettors will be mesmerized by the 111 BSF and Todd.
Liam is lightly raced so the win going long was good to see. The race was quick and highly rated. I was visually stunned by the lack of gallop out by the top two. They were exhausted animals. I suppose they simply left it all on the track. I would lean towards playing against Liam in next start assuming 9F, reasonable graded competition and the customary low Pletcher tote odds. Some could fairly say if you find fault with a 111BSF by judging the gallop out then its nit picking.
I was hoping for a breakout new sire of classic types but don’t really see it so far other than Super Saver. I have taken a few losses on Blame’s underperforming offspring. Several sires listed in the last sentence including Kantharos and Warrior’s Reward have done good work with sprint types. Some sires need time to get the right book of mares. Certainly worth watching the ones that were mentioned.
Danza is very interesting. I thought his stretch run the Ark Derby was scintillating. He wasn’t beating the best of generation that day in Hot Springs but it was not Curly, Mo, and Larry either. I hope he comes back to race effectively as a 4 year old. His dam is Champagne Royale. She produced G1 winner Majestic Harbor also. It was a very good year for her that should get consideration for Broodmare of the Year.
Looks more like a middle distance type to me. He may eventually find his way to the lawn once the big money dreams run their course.
This is a tight photo finish for me with a few horses worthy of the HOY crown. There is no injustice in picking any one of three horses. However, I would give the award to Bayern. In head to head matchups he beat Chrome two out of three. In tennis that is a win. In horse racing who knows. I would respectfully say this to Chrome supporters. How do you reconcile the fact when the two faced off Chrome lost twice to Bayern? One final thought Chrome ran his race in the Classic but could not pass Toast of NY in the stretch run of the Classic with everything on the table.
Seems the trend for some handicappers was to weight the Remsem heavily in future Derby projections. As Laura points out not so quick. Sure it is 9F and foundational but not much success in Louisville. It was well back to the rest of the field after the top two so what was behind LtLO and Frosted. I do like Mineshaft in the pedigree for any future longer Triple Crown trip.
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