very good info. Id have to say that I admire the decision.
I missed how the legacy could be marred by Shame? Your Quote
"Only one question remains at this point; Will that legacy be marred by broken promises, mistrust, damaged friendships, and shame?" I dont get this, sounds like the author is just hating???
This info is hindsight not handicapping.
First off let me say I think Shutty has a good handicapping screener for
the derby, but this info has some problems.
This pacing info is how the horses ran in the Derby, not what their running
style was in the preps prior to the big dance.
So if you handicapped using the pace info you would have got different
info. Example Paddy-O Prado was never more than 2 ½ lengths from the lead in
his preps, one would never have used him as a “deep closer”, same with Mucho
Macho Man, he was most certainly a front runner prior to the Derby, as was Went
The Day Well, all liked the lead or to be within a length or 2. I mean who would have thought Palace Malice
would decided to become a Wire type on derby day, he was a presser before the
derby! In 2009 I would have hardly classified
Papa Clem or Mind That bird as Deep closers, more like pressers, and Pioneer of
the Nile was certainly a front runner.
The list goes on. I think
sometimes in the derby the best horses get bad trips and have to maneuver through
traffic and often have to come from behind, which makes them appear as closers.
No, his biggest plus is he has the "IT" factor. He can get past by a horse (firing line) in the stretch, look him in the eye, and retake the lead on pure grit, not because Firing Line was slowing down. That cant be trained, taught, or bred into horses, they either got "IT" or like most they dont!
Actually these 2 along with Carpe Diem, could come down to the best trip and/or post position.
Averie, although I like both horses, your arguement went south fast when you compared Far Rights ability to Hoopertunity. Hoopertunity is probably one of the top 5 3 year olds last year. Far right would be LUCKY to be in the top 10
I did a little number crunching on the last 4 derbys. There have been 77 horses. Only 13 have been the 6th foal or higher, of those 13, 2 have hit the board (15.4%), of the remaining 64 horses, 10 have hit the board (15.6%). I know its a small sample size but I saw no statistical pattern, so I quit after 4 derbys
This is interesting. The stats are kinda fuzzy because we dont know the pool size. Meaning did 50% of the winners come from 50% of the entrants. Then its not a betting angle. If 50% of the winners came from 20% of the field then you got something good. can you provide numbers of how many runners were 1st/or barren, 2nd foal, 3rd, etc, this is important info when providing stats.
I'm in agreement with you. If all goes as expected with AP, I think he and dortmond will b 4-1, with carpe at about 6-1, and mutaahbi at 9-1. That being said, kudos to you brian, really realistic odds
This isnt even a debatable issue. It make no "common sense" to skip the final round of the derby preps, and go to the derby on an 8 week lay off.
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