Breeders' Cup

I was standing at the finish line and I swear I saw Mike flip a finger at Chantal as he drove past her. Love hurts !

I think all of the races would have played out differently had the track been different.

YAY, it gives them another fatuous reason to mention Zenyatta in every sentence. Even though she is utterly irrelevant to Drosselmeyers lovely win, bleh.

I GOT A SUPERFECTA

I still think HDG has it won IMO. She was the leader going in, she didn't win but I mean it's not like Drosselmeyer's win really gived it to him either. You could maybe say Hansen or a juvenille I guess.

So true Thead'or.. I agree with getthefacts on this.

topgun, don't know, but it certainly should ensure Animal Kingdom gets 3yo HOTY.

topgun, don't know, but it certainly should ensure Animal Kingdom gets 3yo HOTY.

So your saying you thought Drosselmeyer was the best horse in the field? lol riiiight

You just had to Karma was going to bring Smitty a winner after the great mare;s loss in the greatest run in BCC history. 3-8 my son $20 26 My daughter $20 1-7 Grandson $20 7-2 Grandaughter $20. #8 is 1st or secong every big race 46% of the time, thats a stat worth remembering and I posted it many days ago hoping Mo would draw it. mjtags11 you handicap reeeeeel gooood. !!!

Well Who is going to win Horse of the year now.?

I didnt really notic HDG, but did she get tierd or squeezed?

She was boxed in nearly the whole race, pressed to the inside by Head Ache. She didn't like it, and when it came time to fire she was done.

topgun, don't know, but it certainly should ensure Animal Kingdom gets 3yo HOTY.

I dont think HDG likes the Churchill track much. Last year and this years BC were pretty much the worst races of her career, she is usually very game and right in it even in defeat. So I think she is still likely the better horse, I mean she beat Flat Out in the Woodward and finished ahead of him hear, And he did beat Drosselmeyer in the JCGC so I would say on maybe a different track she could have her way with both.

Neither really, she just made her move and it wasn't enough

topgun, don't know, but it certainly should ensure Animal Kingdom gets 3yo HOTY.

excuses for HDG she just lost because she wasnt the best in the field!!!!!anyways she wasnt going to beat GAME ON DUDE!!HDG has never won the CLASSIC distance she was always second to BLIND LUCK!!!also good job RULER ON ICE you did great i hope you get 3yo of the year because you beat MO and STAY THIRSTY!!MO suck in this race 10th hahaha not the best!!!

well she was in my pick but i thought that GAME ON DUDE WAS!!

and as I say it is HOY, and for the year as a whole she was simply the best of a down year. So I say it goes to her IMO.

sorry bout the triplicate

I know there were so many that I wanted to win just for the connections.

I wanted mike, chantall, and havre de grace, but also flat out that is such a heart toching story

OMG!!! Go Mike!

I'm happy for Giant Oak. Have to be a heck of a handicapper to pick Afleet Again.

Brigantin and Leparoux. Hope he takes to the dirt.

travel_vic, you answer makes perfect sense. Thoroughbreds are about action. Whe you take away action, entertainment value is diminished.

@travel_vic- I agree 100%

The Euro's have cornered the market on stamina

Any race 1 1/2 mile and above lacks entertainment. Just a survival contest. I'm a fan of Giant Oak though.

without distance races at graded levels, stamina genes will become lost forever.....It is pitiful that no chefs have been added from the dirt, to the list of professional and stout for years now. You need balanced breeding and without these tests you are going to lose that.

I'd love to see Mo do just that, icy.

He'll get Mo' ed down....

MO is not going to win the CLASSIC!!

Barring major adversity he won't lose. I don't need to look at a form to bet this for the win money anyway not after what I've seen visually along with the times and internal fractions. This is no ordinary horse!

Mo going to Slew em!

Beyers Derby selections BEFORE Animal Kingdom was entered in the race. The guy is brilliant. 1. Shackleford 2. Archarcharch 3. Nehro

http://www.drf.com/news/clocker-report-flat-out-royal-delta-outshine-uncle-mo

Good job teaching Rule to lose. He messed up the plan in the Birdstone, otherwise turning this good horse into a workmate is turning out just fine. (sarcasm)

I'll add another pro-Mo going for the BCC. The Dirt Mile would be a huge letdown. The champ needs to go for the big prize, along with any other horse that has one of those 118 bsf, and can win on the Saratoga mud like Mo just did. We call that a Freak, icy.

Like I said I'm not finished handicapping. Uncle Mo's Beyer speed rating is the highest, but only at 8 furlongs. The owner has 2 horses who could be up for "Horse of the Year" honors. So why not send Uncle Mo out, and let the Jockey "feel" the animal, and see if he has "enough" horse to push a Thoroughbred to the wire at 10 furlongs, under the MOST grueling circumstances, who is ALSO coming off a ILLNESS? If not, then push Stay Thirsty (also). Mike Repole (OWNER) was quoted this morning in the USATODAY, about having 2 horses for "Horse of the Year" honors. My views change, as I gather information. I just bought the Racing Form yesterday FOR EXAMPLE.

todd pletcher and mike repoel,pack your bags and get out of the barn,Mr BOB Baffert is coming to toun

I personaly wouldn't send him in the Classic. The last time he run on 1 1/4 was in Wood Memorial and he couldn't even prove his self. He's still young and he's not gonna miss anything

Probably the best book I've ever read on handicapping is Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred handicapping. Best part of that book is the "Factor" chapters. You have a 3 year old coming off a illness, who's last race was at 8 furlongs. The "Distance Factor" doesn't make sense. A horse coming off a illness adding 2 furlongs in distance is not what I want to see. Add the "Class Factor" in this mix. The most prestigious grade one with older horses in our nation, and it simply doesn't add up for Uncle Mo. Try to beat him in the Exacta.

In the Derby there were two etrants with NO form on dirt and they were simply best guesses: the Euro shipper and Animal Kingdom...A LUCKY GUESS

Quote from usatoday (Monday): One of the key questions revolving around a deep Classic field is whether Uncle Mo can sustain his high turn of foot for a mile-and-a-quarter. It is a distance he has never approached, and his preparation is hardly textbook due to all of the time it took for him to recover from an illness that caused a significant weight loss. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/story/2011-10-30/Breeders-Cup/51006460/1

Breeders' Cup Clocker: Flat Out, Royal Delta outshine Uncle Mo.

Ruffian75 good to hear from you also. Had some good luck early on with this site with my selections of Flat Out; Sherriff Cogburn; and Dreamy Kid. Then I hit kind of lull, and took a break. Hope to reestablish myself with solid selections in the Breeders Cup races. I want to compare Flat Out's Beyer speed figure in the Suburban handicap to other Beyer speed figures of the top horses in the Classic. But Flat Out is training great and should be dangerous in the Classic. The final play still may be revolving around beating Uncle Mo in the Exacta.

M Pavelick, I respect your handicapping ability but I do not understand your logic about not running MO in the classic. Mo is a Huge FAN favorite and realistically that is what this is all about for us on here. I applaud the connections for taking a shot at greatness. Why not I dont get it. Hes Fit,Talented and loved by many Go Mo even if he finishes off the board they took a shot.

I agree, Michael. Good to see you back on this site. Haven't heard from you in a while. Still like Flat Out? I had some dialogue with you on that horse 3 months ago, prior to the Stephen Foster. You touted that race correctly, as well as the next one. Funny he wasn't on anybody's radar back then, except yours and mine. Look forward to some more dialogue in the near future for the BC. Good luck!!!

Uncle Mo was not quite as impressive as Flat Out in his last work before Saturday’s Classic, going five-eighths in 1:01.18 and galloping out six furlongs in 1:14.81 under jockey John Velazquez shortly after the renovation break. He was followed by stablemate Stay Thirsty, who went five furlongs in 1:00.46, easily pulling away from the older, multiple Grade 1- placed Rule nearing the wire.

Ruffian75, At 9 furlongs and longer Flat Out's (July 2nd) Suburban H. Beyer speed rating of 113 is the highest. He may be "top dog" (thoroughbred) in this race based upon that speed rating. He recently won a grade one at 10 furlongs. Plus his Oct. 23rd mile breeze is a indication Flat Out is ready to roll, and deeply conditioned. I'm NOT finished handicapping, but I love this 5 year old, and how he is being prepared for the biggest race of the year.

Flat Out just cruised through a half-mile work in 46.50 seconds, galloped out five-eighths in 59.02, and then continued on strongly into the backstretch to pull up six furlongs in 1:12.51 in his final prep before the Classic.

Why not? If he loses he has an excuse if he wins it will be an amazing story.. I love that Repole/Pletcher are not scraed to actually run their horses for glory!! Same for so you thinks handlers.. great job by them giving the fans what they want.

I've spoken about Mike Welsch from drf.com numerous times. He hasn't posted his video for Sunday yet, but the title of his Sunday article is above.

Looks like Andy Beyer completely supports my skepticism of Uncle Mo being entered in this super demanding grade 1 at 10 furlongs, with this title, and article at drf.com: "Beyer: Uncle Mo in Classic a bold but ill-advised move" http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-uncle-mo-classic-bold-ill-advised-move

one of the requirements of a youngster going up against his older rivals is seasoning. Many a child prodigy fails just for this reason.

The grounds crew at CD have often played games with the surface. be careful to watch for any discernable bias on Friday.

Beyer: Uncle Mo in Classic a bold but ill-advised move: By Andrew Beyer: I love it when a guy who has 2 winners in the last 24 years goes against me. Hard to believe but this guy makes his living analyzing the race after it has been run not before, why, because he can't.

Pletcher is conservative. I really think its the owners ego being Uncle Mo missed the 10 furlong races for 3 year olds (Derby, Travers). I just think this is premature and unwise to think Uncle Mo is ready for this challenge.

I guess I don't put much emphasis on the BSR. If you were to compare, how do you compare a great Beyer @ 1 1/8, vs. a great Beyer @ 7f, which would be the case for Flat Out and Uncle Mo? Thing that bothers me about Mo, is that he's only proven himself one time going two turns, and that was in last year's Juvenile. Pletcher has run him exclusively in one-turn races, with the exception of the Wood Memorial, where he was beaten. Now, he shows up in the Classic, without any proven two-turn races.

Circumstances dictate actions not logic. Circumstance: a multi billionaire wants to win now but he's not just lucky he also makes good decisions like keeping Mo on the sidelines until he is healthy for one.Circumstance: when a horse running at a high level of competition runs the second quarter faster than the first( Secretariat )and goes on to win in dominating fashion you have a very good horse as the energy distribution is so disproportionate as to plainly show his/her stamina and speed is extraordinary. I've read Ainslie, Davidowitz, Klein, and many others but while on the whole their opinions are good they are just that, their opinions, which do not override mine. MichaelPavelick, I've had many discussions with you on horse racing so I'll tell you the same thing I told my son about his books on poker, throw them away as you've progressed beyond the point of needing them and its time to write your own as your opinions and thoughts are as good as theirs.Thirty Five years ago I lost my home and almost my family because I gambled but didn't know how to win. At that point I got a job in a steel mill and studied gambling for the next five years during which time I never made a wager of any kind and I waited until I was sure I had the best of any situation before risking my money. For the next thirty years after I quit the steel mill I gambled professionally and successfully until my forced retirement in 2006 due to health issues.During my thirty years of gambling I had an ROI of 14% not counting my horse racing both as an owner and bettor because like everyone else I needed to play games and exercise to keep as healthy as possible and when it came to horses my passion was to great to be objective. That doesn't mean I can't handicap it means I just didn't do it for a living as my other wagering interests were far more profitable and I never kept books on my endeavors in horse racing which for myself were primarily in the Standard bred sector.

When a horse runs the second quarter faster than the first and goes on to win as he did at a mile distance you know you have a "Beast From The East"

Wood Memorial is 1 1/8th mile. "Distance Factor" against older horses is HUGE.

"He's done nothing to indicate he can't get the distance," Pletcher said. "But until he does, you don't know for sure."

Did you read Beyer's article? Why not the BC mile? Is one of his comments.

I would not be surprised to see him be the early favourite, but I would be surprised to see him win against the likes of HDG, SYT, and the Dude. I think he is a very talented horse, but not talented enough to beat everything against him coming into the Classic.