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Older Comments about the ...

Ignore Outwork at your own peril. Outwork probably has the best pedigree to win the Derby of any of the other Uncle Mos with Empire Maker on the bottom. He has shown that he can win on an off track and run fast on a dry track where it took a track record to beat him in the 3rd start of his career and first in stakes company against a horse who was making the fifth start of his career and already had a stakes win over that track. In his 2nd stakes start he managed to win a G1 race his first time on an off track. He is a smart horse. A competitor, but he is very green still. The Wood was only his 4th career start. His connections have noted that as a result of his greenness, in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial once he gets to the lead he loses focus. Street Sense did this in the Preakness. He has been training to rate behind horses and take dirt at Churchill and doing well so that will be the strategy to not get him to the lead too quick so that he keeps his focus on a target in front of him. He also happens to be Uncle Mo's first winner on the track taking his first trip to the winner's circle in April last year. What if the Wood were an off race for him where he was close to the fastest 1/2 mile pace in the Wood since 2008 going 3 wide around both turns, and still managed to hold on to win? And remember one very important thing, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez took off the talented Zulu to ride Outwork in the Wood, and the very talented Destin to ride Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby. This should raise eyebrows. :-)
Surely just a "paid workout" for Beholder this weekend in the Adoration Stakes at her beloved Santa Anita??? She will probably go off at around odds of about 1-5, maybe even 1-9, and she should win under just a hand ride by 5 or more. I hope she is EXPLOSIVE as ever, she can definitely beat all-comers including Chrome, and I think she would put that young girl in her place..................... I'm talking about "Songbird" of course. :-)
  • amino998 · Richard Mandella on Beholder's 2016 debut Sunday : "I don’t think she’s ready for the race of her life, but she’s ready to get started. From everything I can see, we have the same mare we had last year. Hopefully this is the start of a great run." ‏@BH_JBalan · 18 minutes ago
question....if the field is for 20 horses why is there 22 horses listed
Does anyone know where I can look up the DI for the contenders? Thanks! Looking for more ways to confuse myself :D
The 2016 Kentucky Derby is touted as being loaded with many closers. Despite being a long shot, I predict that Trojan Nation will finish in front of all the closers in the Kentucky Derby. This horse seemed to be progressively getting better since his first race.
  • Pebbles via Disqus · I guess we see what we want to see. I think he is one of the most inconsistent horses in the field and the only reason he finished 2nd was the perfect trip he received. Granted in his previous race he finished 3rd more than 3 3/4 lengths back which was better than 2 races back when he finished 3rd 9 lengths back, but the race before than he was only 5 lengths back, and the one before that was his best until the Wood, where he was 1/2 a length back, and his maiden where he was 4 1/2 lengths back. For me I see a horse when he had faced quality fields - one against Hoffenheim a 5 length loss and one against Cupid a 9 length loss on dry, fast tracks he folds except for the Wood. So why was he able to close the Wood? Was there anything different in that race from his others? Well, we know it was an off track. And we know that he was along the rail the whole race and Outwork travelled much further than he did. So I think taking Trojan Nation is little more than sending up a prayer. · 56 minutes ago
Does anyone want to tip me about their favorite or hot sires? I'm thinking Tapit this Kentucky Derby. Birdstone I go way back with to sire Grindstone who won the Derby on the day of my first date with my wife and then did she and I well with winner Mine That Bird and also Belmont winner Summer Bird.
  • Jane Franklin via Disqus · I remember how mad I was when Birdstone won the Belmont and squashed a triple crown. Then I remember when he gave me one of my favorite Kentucky Derby memories watching his son gutsy little Mine That Bird bursting through at the rail and surprising everyone so much the announcer didn't even notice him. · 1 hour ago
First time through the comparative pace data and ONE thing shows through, and it is not unexpected: there is a BIG loss of stamina in this field. Usually the deceleration rates (3rd fraction velocity divided by 2nd call velocity) hover around 97% and only 2 in this field come close to that. Many regressions over their last 2 starts as well including some of the short priced colts. As far as SINGLE lines, Mohaymen has the top two but regressed significantly last out as has Exaggerator and many other shorter priced entrants. Still too early to make a top 5 prediction but it is in the works.......Some longer priced animals look good.
  • ChessChamp · Vic I think we are in agreement this year. Will be interested to see who you like, as I looked at a lot of similar data. I ended up with Destin and Creator. Even Majesto seems to have some decent statistics to back him up as a super longshot. · 1 day ago
  • amino998 · Exaggerator regressed significantly last out??? · 2 hours ago
This one is coming into this race off TWO very impressive and improving efforts that fit the 10 furlong profile at Churchill to a "T."
Runs today 12:45 Chantilly (France) 6 May 2016 De Joinville Stakes (3YO only) Winner €15,750 - 12 declared to run This was an article yesterday http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/10269935/andre-fabre-gives-debut-to-frankels-brother-proconsul-at-chantilly
Good luck to Destin, I like his #9 PP draw. I believe he will win the Kentucky Derby.
  • Pitbull via Disqus · Im with you on this, he set a track record at the tbd. I wish him the best. · 4 hours ago
Gun Runner STINKS!!!! Enough said. PERIOD.
Like lani not more yhsn gunn runner but he is the only horse that has went the distance and he won at it
1 Gunn Runner 2 Outwork 3 creator 4 Destin 5 suddenbreakingnews 6 lani these end my pick four
Can't wait to see him back on turf. Love this colt
  • GPC Misses Turlure via Disqus · Reported by Mike Watchmaker our big gray turned in a bullet on Churchill dirt last week(best out of 67 works!!)Mark Casse said He is real happy right now(Airoforce that is-Mr.Casse is probably kicking himself for not having Leparoux on Airoforce at the Spiral which i think cost Airoforce his shot to make that bullet on dirt a bullet in the derby! But that's just my sour grapes for the day!) From the #1 hole with his tactical speed should get to a good place right away. · 7 hours ago
Good luck Danzing Candy, I know you will run your heart out, and it would be great to see a horse win the Kentucky Derby going gate to wire. But I think Exaggerator and Nyquist will come and get you!!! :-)
numeric order router considerations: 5 Gun Runner, 7 longshot no dirt races Oscar Nominated, 8 Dubai prep winner Lani, 11*(add water?) Exaggerator, 13 Nyquist, I would have preferred another route for him this year, 15 Outwork,no 8.5 win, but he only has 4 lifetime races to go on. Non winner at 9f: 17 Mor Spirit. I'll narrow those down by tomorrow(Friday) night. Personal favorites are Nyquist and Outwork.
Cathryn will either win or get caught in the last stride to finish 2nd. But #Cathrynforthewin #KYOaks2016
Uncle Mo never wanted to run much more than a mile...
The way that this horse worked and raced (on any track) was almost machine-like. I'm picking this long striding colt to finish in the top 3 of the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
  • Scott Hodges via Disqus · There is no way I would leave this horse out. He will be a factor without a doubt in my mind. I think he is a steal at anywhere close to 10-1. The distance nor the pace will be a factor for this horse. I also believe he has improve more as a 3 YO that anyone else in this field and this is what wins the derby year after year. Most stays the same or regress a little from 2 to 3. · 9 hours ago
Ok...this is it!! No more he say, she say, maybe this maybe that...if this then that. State you selection and give some reasoning why you choose that horse. 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers are irrelevant. Nyquist will win the Kentucky Derby...reasoning, most of the horses he have beaten came back to win G1 Stakes or finish in the money in G1 events. On racing observation, when he is challenge, he shows you a new gear. Improving 3yr old and learning as he goes. See you after the wire !!!
  • Elhubbo · 1. Nyquist 2. Exaggerator 3. Mohaymen 4.Brodys cause 5. Gun Runner I can't type my reasons again but I think it's easy to say these are the class of the race. They've won a bunch of money and have faced the best competition. I think Nyq clearly wins by 4 or 5, I think Exaggerator runs down everyone else to place. I expect the show to come from one of the other 3 but will play the exotics with a few others. My multi race tickets will have both Nyq and Ex, I don't see many with a chance to upset Nyquist but Exaggerator may have the kick to surprise him. · 9 hours ago

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