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2010 Arkansas Derby (G1)

4/10/2010, Oaklawn Park
1 1/8 m (Dirt)
3 M
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Older Comments about the 2010 Arkansas Derby (G1)...

With Baffert saying Lookin At Lucky is likely bypassing the Arkansas Derby in favor of the Santa Anita Derby, it look's like Noble's Promise, who came up just a whisker short to LAL in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, will be the colt to beat in the Arkansas Derby, IMO. But I'm anxious to see how Odysseus comes out of the Arkansas Derby. He's the one colt that a person might get at a little bit of a price once he get's to Churchill Downs. If he does go off at longer odds than LAL, Eskendereya, Awesome Act, Rule, Interactif and some of the other bigger name prospects, Odesseus might very well turn out to be the best potential long-shot in the 2010 Kentucky Derby field. IMO.
I'm certainly not a trainer, but I am a long time racing fan that has bet on horse racing for many years, so I think I know just a very little about how to handicap a race and the horses in it. Or at least the formula that I use has been reasonably successful for me. There are a few descent looking Kentucky Derby prospects this year. But I think most racing fans, if you took a nationwide poll, would say they feel that Lookin At Lucky is probably the horse with the most talent. Or I'd say he'd get the biggest percentage of the vote. The only knock on him was that all of his stakes wins, until the Rebel Stakes, had come over synthetic tracks on the west coast. Although he did put to bed the question of whether or not he could run well enough over conventional dirt to win at Oaklawn in the Rebel Stakes, IMO, it wasn't a convincing enough win to make me think that Lookin At Lucky is unbeatable on conventional dirt. Bob Baffert has recently been quoted as saying Lookin At Lucky will either come back to Santa Anita and race in the Santa Anita Derby, or stay at Oaklawn and train for the Arkansas Derby for his final prep race going into Churchill Downs. Again, IMO, while Lookin At Lucky would very likely be the favorite, and difficult to beat on the Santa Anita synthetic main track in the S.A. Derby, I really think, as close as the finish of the Rebel Stakes came out, that he'd be doing his colt a bigger favor by leaving him at Oaklawn, racing in the Arkansas Derby, and getting another dirt track start under his belt before the Kentucky Derby. Of course, another school of thought on that may be that coming back to Santa Anita, and very likely being difficult to beat in the Santa Anita Derby, would instill a lot of confidence in his colt going into Churchill with a win in that race, if he won it. JMO.