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Maria Lake can rebound at Turf Paradise

2/10/2013 3:23 PM
Track:
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Monday's 4th race from Turf Paradise is a $16,000 ($20k Arizona-bred) claiming event for fillies and mares dashing five and one-half furlongs on the main track. 

#1 Maria Lake (6-1) made a middle move into above par splits before losing ground in the lane vs. this kind at 6.5f Jan 11 and the runner-up came back to win. She has fired Exacta shots in 4 of 5 starts at this trip and attracts recently hot rider Franco. She hails from a profitable low profile barn and is entered to be claimed for $20k as the lone AZ-bred in the field. The 4-time local winner projects a ground saving tactical trip. 

#5 Lady Jila (3-1) has a nose for the wire and is probably the one to catch. She likes this course/distance and has captured 5 of her last 7.

#6 Quinnette (7-2) chased Lady Jila home last time and will try to get involved late under new pilot Von Rosen. She hails from a hot barn but it is not easy for sustained runners to get up at this distance here.

The Plays:

$12 to win #1

$6 Exacta Box 1-5 ($12)

$3 Exacta Box 1-6 ($6)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

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comment next to the 4 line stated why the start was impeded "crowded start."
travel_vic | 2/12/2013 11:38 AM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
wagers are not handicapping and handicapping is not wagering
travel_vic | 2/12/2013 11:31 AM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
4 was outbroken but was UP on the pace a mere 3 lenghts back at the first call. You can check the chart. Breaks are random anyway
travel_vic | 2/12/2013 11:23 AM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
and where was the ONE in all of this talk? the mention of the 3 was the third choice because of odds, not probability of winning...The odds probability was HIGHER than the probability of the win, hence a CONDISERATION for a bet....Pal if you want to go one and one, I welcome it...
travel_vic | 2/12/2013 11:18 AM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
I didn't see this race, just happend to see your question. Please notice I said "likely pace scenario." If this isn't correct, he can answer for himself, but that was and still is my interpretation of what he meant.
icyhotboo | 2/11/2013 7:37 PM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
It was the 5 and 7 (as expected) on the lead, with 1 sitting pretty, 6 coming late. The 3 was a no factor.
rafirox | 2/11/2013 6:27 PM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
T_V is giving you the likely pace scenario.
icyhotboo | 2/11/2013 6:05 PM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
No idea what the "4 and 1 pop out early then 7 joins them after the half, 5 6 come later.. " came from.. I was crrect 5 was running to be just ahead of 7. 7 pushed her faster than I thought, and I was right. 1 was sitting pretty, the 6 came charging late. I was correct.
rafirox | 2/11/2013 5:22 PM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
5/6/7 trifecta
travel_vic | 2/11/2013 3:10 PM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
4 and 1 pop out early then 7 joins them after the half, 5 6 come later..
travel_vic | 2/11/2013 12:19 PM |  - Re: Maria Lake can rebound a...
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