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Maria Lake can rebound at Turf Paradise

2/10/2013 3:23 PM
Track:
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Monday's 4th race from Turf Paradise is a $16,000 ($20k Arizona-bred) claiming event for fillies and mares dashing five and one-half furlongs on the main track. 

#1 Maria Lake (6-1) made a middle move into above par splits before losing ground in the lane vs. this kind at 6.5f Jan 11 and the runner-up came back to win. She has fired Exacta shots in 4 of 5 starts at this trip and attracts recently hot rider Franco. She hails from a profitable low profile barn and is entered to be claimed for $20k as the lone AZ-bred in the field. The 4-time local winner projects a ground saving tactical trip. 

#5 Lady Jila (3-1) has a nose for the wire and is probably the one to catch. She likes this course/distance and has captured 5 of her last 7.

#6 Quinnette (7-2) chased Lady Jila home last time and will try to get involved late under new pilot Von Rosen. She hails from a hot barn but it is not easy for sustained runners to get up at this distance here.

The Plays:

$12 to win #1

$6 Exacta Box 1-5 ($12)

$3 Exacta Box 1-6 ($6)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

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Older Comments about Maria Lake can rebound at Turf Paradise...

comment next to the 4 line stated why the start was impeded "crowded start."
wagers are not handicapping and handicapping is not wagering
4 was outbroken but was UP on the pace a mere 3 lenghts back at the first call. You can check the chart. Breaks are random anyway
and where was the ONE in all of this talk? the mention of the 3 was the third choice because of odds, not probability of winning...The odds probability was HIGHER than the probability of the win, hence a CONDISERATION for a bet....Pal if you want to go one and one, I welcome it...
I didn't see this race, just happend to see your question. Please notice I said "likely pace scenario." If this isn't correct, he can answer for himself, but that was and still is my interpretation of what he meant.
It was the 5 and 7 (as expected) on the lead, with 1 sitting pretty, 6 coming late. The 3 was a no factor.
T_V is giving you the likely pace scenario.
No idea what the "4 and 1 pop out early then 7 joins them after the half, 5 6 come later.. " came from.. I was crrect 5 was running to be just ahead of 7. 7 pushed her faster than I thought, and I was right. 1 was sitting pretty, the 6 came charging late. I was correct.
5/6/7 trifecta
4 and 1 pop out early then 7 joins them after the half, 5 6 come later..
Contenders before scratches: As T.V. below...I believe that the #5 and #7 will be the deciding factors. The #5 Lady Jila will probably be favored and superficially looks vulnerable (wrong running style). However, she still might win anyway. The one to fear is the #7 Threetimes a wonder who has the best times in the bunch. Scratchees could change everything. Good luck!!!
Contenders before scratches: As T.V. below...I believe that the #5 and #7 will be the deciding factors. The #5 Lady Jila will probably be favored and superficially looks vulnerable (wrong running style). However, she still might win anyway. The one to fear is the #7 Threetimes a wonder who has the best times in the bunch. Scratchees could change everything. Good luck!!!
before scratches the contenders here are: 5 Lady Jila 6 Quinnette 3 Stopin Memo 7 Threetimesawonder
Oh, didn't notice you had the same race, Jarrod :). I put a "Play of the Day" on this one as well. The pace looks slow, I think 5 and 7 go out, 1 and 3 sit behind, and 6 comes late, with 2 and 4 being no factors. 5's style suggests she will only go as fast as 7, but a head in front or so. 7 controls how the race will be run. 7 has run 45 internals before, and that is what 6 needed last out to come flying at the end. The 3 is kind of "iffy" with low figures. The match race (between 1 and 3) 1 departs away from 3. 6 is getting in gear. 1 and 7, guessing, go 22:2 and 45:3. As they enter the stretch, the 5 slowly opens on the 7, maybe a length or so. But, as you said, the 1 will have a ground saving trip, approaching 5 on the inside. 6 is flying on the outside. I thought 7's distribution #'s were a bit off, so I think 7 fades a little at the end. 1 5 and 6 left with a little less than a furlong to go.5 holding on, and 1 gaining, but I see 6 coming hard on the outside, taking it. I say 6 Quinnette 5 Lady Jila 1 Maria Lake. That is how I visualized it. First way through I liked the 1 the most, but after going through a second time I found 6 intriguing. Plays posted under POTD.