The 2011 edition of the Sunland Derby features a field of
underachievers in search of a Derby- worthy performance today. This one comes up rather void of speed
and the one in here that is in the best position to control the pace is #7
Sinai. He exits the very
productive San Vincente stakes from which both The Factor and Premier Pegasus
notched huge subsequent victories.
Sinai couldn’t handle the white hot pace set by The Factor that day and
will find this field more to his liking.
He stretches out 2 furlongs today and tries two turns for the first time
(which I believe he will appreciate). He's out of the barn of Bob Baffert who has been quite productive with
shippers to Sunland Park over the past few years. Tab this one as my top win contender. In the next stall to his left is a
lightly raced shipper from Oaklawn Park that intrigues me. #6 Supreme Ruler jumped up big in his
second start off the maiden win.
His breeding and running style suggest that he’ll appreciate the added
ground today. Mark this one as a
bomber play underneath. #1 Ruler
on Ice ships in the from the Northeast after having to overcome dreadfully slow
pace scenarios in each of his last two races. Was clearly the best of each field given the race shapes and
looks awfully tough against similar competition today. The lack of speed in this race favors
#2 R Skydiver’s early energy distribution and this one has a shot to hang on for a
piece. #11 Astrology will be favored
here by virtue of his 2010 accomplishments, which included a game victory in
the G3 Iroquois run at Churchill Downs.
He’s not seen any action in four months and lost a lot of training in
December and January. He’s got
talent but he has a lot of catching up to do. The low price just won’t be worth it here. Look for a far better effort in his 2nd
or 3rd start after this long layoff.
The Wager:
$10 Exacta 7 with 1,2,6
$1 Trifecta 1,2,6 with 7 with 1,2,6,10,11 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 1,2,6 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6,7,10,11 ($24)