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Saint Prado in mild Sunland Derby upset

3/23/2013 4:49 PM
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POST TIME 7:40 PM EDT -- This year's edition of the G3 Sunland Derby may lack star power but a contentious field of 9 will assemble in the starting gate with a shot to earn valuable Derby points.  The Pletcher horse, #2 Abraham, is the only one in here to have already negotiated the 1 1/8 miles distance.  It looks as though this colt will figure in the early pace along with #9 Show Some Magic and possibly #8 Mudflats.  Baffert's pair will take a lot of wagering dollars with #4 Shakin It Up the likely favorite.  His workmate, #7 Govenor Charlie has been the AM target but may be just as good as #4 Shakin It Up.  Neither strikes me as a classic distance horse with both being out of Midnight Lute.  After perusing the field, of the local horses, #6 Dry Summer seems to have the decided edge.  Of the shippers from barns other than Baffert and Pletcher, #5 Saint Prado strikes me as a solid value choice despite being ridden by Rafael Bejarano.  His come backer after that 8 months grazing the field, was visually and numerically impressive.  His breeding shouts classic distance and though one would think turf, that dirt test in his maiden win provides support on this Sunland surface.  I would expect to see this one sitting three back from the pace setters negotiating a modest pace before engaging all comers as they hit mid-stretch.  Conditioning remains a big question (despite the noteworthy works) with the move from 7 to 9 furlongs and making just his second start off the very long layoff, but odds at post time will determine the risk/value opportunity.  I would want 9-1 or higher. 

The Wager:

$1 Superfecta 5 with 1,2,6,7 with All with 1,2,6,7

$1 Trifecta 2,5,6,7 with 5,7 with All

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Contenders: 4 Shakin It Up 6 Dry Summer 2 Abraham 7 Govenor Charlie

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