Hey y'all. Fun race here with top prospect #5 Midnight Lucky. Others are in it to win it, though. First thing one may notice here is the pace. Enhanced, it is. The #1 Unusual Way, #3 Majestic River, #5 Midnight Lucky, and #7 Shesatopattraction all have prefrences for the front end. I concluded, statistically the #5 Midnight Lucky is the earliest and fastest. As a filly , she is #4 on my Kentucky Oaks List, but the two furlong increase and the new surface, traveling, will be tough for her. The #3 Majestic River is class considering she lost by 3/4 lengths to my #1 on my Kentucky Oaks list, Emollient. I honestly think all three quality speed: #1, #3, #5 will be drained as the race heads near. #5 Midnight Lucky closed the last race at around :30 for the final 2.5 furlongs traveling 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita... She should have something left at the end, and I believe the #3 will be holding too. The #6 Countless Curlin is the one filly I thought had enough speed/stamina to compete..... The #2 Canticle is the other possible late comer. Overall, at the 1/8th's pole I honestly think the #6 Countless Curlin, a four length stakes winner, will come flying.... The #3 Majestic River is a good filly who'll hold, finally #5 Midnight Lucky at third. The #1 Unusual Way rounding the super. 6-3-5-1....
Unlike the Oaks, this race is moderate on the front end...... This race is filled with sustained pressers. Who will get an easy lead? Will a jockey(s) misjudge and go to fast? This race led me to who might steal the race up front, or possibly will a classy off the pace horse overcome moderate fractions to beat a decent field?
The #2 Abraham holds an impressive maiden win, which came directly after his superb debut, coming in second. He took a 6.5 to 9.0 furlong jump last time. And, despite being in the lead by 2 1/2, only won by 1 length. That was quite the jump. With maturity and improvement, I suspect him to get 9 furlongs easier this time. This one holds some quality speed, but he truly isn't a leader. I suspect him to go up and rate, which is why I like him. The #6 Dry Summer, appears to be the "win or not hit" type. As he has 4 out of 8, but no wins. I believe here HE might take a VERY slow pace, only with the #2 Abraham on his side. The #9 Show Some Magic has really nice energy distribution to keep up with the quality.... He might stay gamely by the 3/16th's pole. The #7 Governor Charlie also owns some decent numbers to keep up. The only off the pace horse here I like is the #4 Shake It Up. I believe he has the pure talent and class to overtake horses in the stretch. He shot home in 36 and 3 last out at 7 furlongs at Santa Anita. Horses he beat didn't come back to do much, but he is by Midnight Lute, and I like the chances. At the quarter pole, I think #2, #7, #9, #4 and #6 would be the remaining bids. Again, I don't see the #6 Dry Summer winning, but I'll include him since he is win or not hit. Assuming he doesn't come in.... I think the #4 Shakin it Up overtakes #2 Abraham and #7 Governor Charlie gets third. Show Some Magic to hold the super.....
Sunland Oaks Plays: $.10 Super: 1-3-5-6/1-3-5-6/1-2-3-5-6/ALL
Sunland Derby Plays: $2 Exacta: 2-4/2-3-4-7-9 and #4 $8 Win, $16 Place.
Daily Double Play: $2 Daily Double: 1-3-5-6/2-4-6-7 (Including the #6 b/c it is win or not hit)
Anaylis by Ed S